Iraq - Which company will win the bidding for the Basra oil field of Rumaila?

Suspend date: Tue 30th Jun 7:59am PST
Settlement date: Wed 1st Jul 8:31am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 30th Jun 7:59am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: ExxonMobil (USA): 10%, BP Group PLC (GBR): 10%, Royal Dutch/Shell (NED) : 10%, ChevronTexaco (USA) : 10%, TotalFinaElf (FRA) : 10%, Conoco+Phillips (USA): 10%, Petronas (MAS): 10%, JSC Lukoil (RUS): 10%, Sinopec (CHN): 10%, Any other company/firm or outcome: 10%

Action history:

Created Sun 28th Jun 11:34am PST by kruijs

Suspended Tue 30th Jun 2:15am PST by kruijs: Suspended pending settlement

Settlement requested Tue 30th Jun 2:15am PST by kruijs: Please settle "Any other firm/outcome" as the bid was won by a combination of two:

"Baghdad's oil ministry said BP and CNPC won the rights to work in the huge Rumaila field, which is in the south of the country and has known reserves of 17.7 billion barrels."

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Iraqi-Oil-Auction-For-Baghdads-Oil-And-Gas-Fields---Bidders-Include-BP-CNPC-Shell-And-ExxonMobil/Article/200906415324392 (market suspended)

Settlement requested Tue 30th Jun 11:04am PST by kruijs: along this lines, I think it's legit to settle "BP":

"The BP group, which included China National Petroleum Co., was chosen after a consortium led by Exxon Mobil and included Malaysia's Petronas declined to match the Iraqi Oil Ministry's fee paid to the companies of $2 for each barrel of additional, new production. The Exxon Mobil group submitted a bid of $4.80 per barrel fee and a maximum peak production of 3.1 million barrels per day.

The BP consortium submitted a bid of $3.99 per barrel fee and a maximum plateau production of 2.85 million barrels per day. After some consultation, the BP group said it would accept the ministry's $2 a barrel fee."

the article will give a little more insight in the now following precedings, too:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124635835306572521.html

Settled as 'BP Group PLC (GBR)' Wed 1st Jul 8:31am PST by bayoubear: Looks like a group led by BP won the rights for Rumaila

"The BP group, which included China National Petroleum Co., was chosen after a consortium led by Exxon Mobil and included Malaysia's Petronas declined to match the Iraqi Oil Ministry's fee paid to the companies of $2 for each barrel of additional, new production. The Exxon Mobil group submitted a bid of $4.80 per barrel fee and a maximum peak production of 3.1 million barrels per day.

The BP consortium submitted a bid of $3.99 per barrel fee and a maximum plateau production of 2.85 million barrels per day. After some consultation, the BP group said it would accept the ministry's $2 a barrel fee."
ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB124635835306572521.html

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Suspend date: Tue 30th Jun 7:59am PST
Settlement date: Wed 1st Jul 8:31am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 30th Jun 7:59am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details