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Iraq - Which company will win the bidding for the Basra oil field of West Qurna?

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Background:

Background: Iraq is scheduled to open its first postwar bidding for oil service contracts on Monday. International oil companies were expelled by Saddam Hussein more than 30 years ago.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jpBEKPNaF-qBe2TU2V6lmxCs2B6QD991RR000
http://www.iraqoilreport.com/the-biz/op-ed-assessment-of-the-oil-and-gas-contracts-in-iraq-1841/

The companies that qualified for the bidding, along with the fields and reserves, are compiled below.

Companies

Chevron (USA)
ConocoPhilips (USA)
Exxon Mobil (USA)
Hess Corp. (USA)
Marathon International Petroleum Ltd. (USA)
Occidental Petroleum Corp. (USA)
BP Group PLC. (GBR)
Inpex Holdings Inc., (JAP)
Japex and Nippon Oil Corp. (JAP)
BHP Billiton Ltd. (AUS)
Woodside Petroleum Ltd. (AUS)
China's CNOOC Ltd. (CHN)
CNPC International Ltd. (CHN)
Sinochem International Co. Ltd. (CHN)
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical co. Ltd. (CHN)
Edison International SPA (ITA)
Eni (ITA)
JSC Lukoil (RUS)
JSC Gazprom Neft (RUS)
Total SA. (FRA)
Korea Gas Corp. (KOR)
Repsol YPF SA. (ESP)
StatoilHydro ASA. (NOR)
Royal Dutch Shell. (NED)
Nexen Inc. (CAN)
Maersk (DEN)
ONGC Ltd. (IND)
Petronas Gas BHD. (MAS)
PT Pertamina (INA)

State-run oil firms:

Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO),
Algeria's Sonatrach,
PetroVietnam,
Angola's Sonangol SA,
Pakistan Petroleum Ltd.,
and Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

BASRA OIL FIELDS:

West Qurna Stage 1:
reserves: 8.6 billion barrels,
current: 280,000 barrels/day.
target: 600,000 barrels/day.


CatEds Note:
"Oil ministry spokesman Assem Jihad said Thursday that a new date for the second bid round hadn't been set, but that it could be held as early as within the next few months. It had originally been scheduled for December."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124653439569985287.html

This question is being reopened and extended until the end of September.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
ExxonMobil (USA)
16%
BP Group PLC (GBR)
13%
Royal Dutch/Shell (NED)
7%
ChevronTexaco (USA)
15%
TotalFinaElf (FRA)
6%
Conoco+Phillips (USA)
12%
Petronas (MAS)
4%
JSC Lukoil (RUS)
4%
Sinopec (CHN)
4%
Any other company/firm or outcome
18%
Predictions on this question are temporarily suspended

Suspend date: Wed 30th Sep 11:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: ExxonMobil (USA): 10%, BP Group PLC (GBR): 10%, Royal Dutch/Shell (NED) : 10%, ChevronTexaco (USA) : 10%, TotalFinaElf (FRA) : 10%, Conoco+Phillips (USA): 10%, Petronas (MAS): 10%, JSC Lukoil (RUS): 10%, Sinopec (CHN): 10%, Any other company/firm or outcome: 10%

Action history:

Created Sun 28th Jun 11:35am PST by kruijs[Power User]
Suspended Tue 30th Jun 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 30th Jun 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 30th Jun 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Fri 3rd Jul 5:48am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2009-06-30 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Fri 3rd Jul 5:48am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: Bidding not finalized...extending wagering period through Sunday night
Suspended Sun 5th Jul 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Mon 6th Jul 7:26am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2009-07-05 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Mon 6th Jul 7:27am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: Reopening question until the end of September
Suspended Wed 30th Sep 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Suspend date: Wed 30th Sep 11:59pm PST details

 

Predictions (37)

13 weeks ago
jyoungs predicted Sinopec (CHN) (H$50 at 5%)
13 weeks ago
dlk26 predicted BP Group PLC (GBR) (H$100 at 12%)
13 weeks ago
jank predicted Royal Dutch/Shell (NED) (H$100 at 6%)
18 weeks ago
sdchargers[Power User] predicted ChevronTexaco (USA) (H$250 at 15%)
19 weeks ago
hect0r predicted Royal Dutch/Shell (NED) (H$50 at 5%)

Comments (5)

  1 kruijs[Power User]
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), teaming up with Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA), presented the best bid for Iraq's West Qurna phase 1 oil field in southern Iraq Tuesday, Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani said.

Exxonmobil, the leader of the consortium, had asked for a remuneration of $4 on each extra barrel of oil produced.

It said it would raise production to 2.325 million barrels a day from the current level of 280,000 barrels a day.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200906300900DOWJONESDJONLINE000321_FORTUNE5.htm

The oil ministry has set a maximum remuneration of $1.90 a barrel for the field and has given the two oil giants 45 minutes to consider the Iraqi terms on the remuneration.
posted 20 weeks ago
  2 kruijs[Power User]
Exxon Mobil Rejects Terms For Iraq W Qurna-1 Field - Oil Min

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), teaming up with Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA), Tuesday rejected the Iraq Oil Ministry's remuneration terms for the southern West Qurna phase 1 oil field, Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani said.

After consultations the consortium decided not to accept the Ministry's terms of a maximum remuneration of $1.90 a barrel of extra oil produced. The two oil giants had asked for remuneration of $4 on each extra barrel and said it would raise production to 2.325 million barrels a day from the current level of 280,000 barrels a day.

A consortium led by China National Petroleum Corp. has now been given 20 minutes to decide if it will accept $1.90 a barrel instead of the $2.60 a barrel it had proposed in its bid.

Petronas of Malaysia (5681.KU) and Japen Petroleum Exploration a (1662.TO) are also in the CNPC consortium.

West Qurna has crude oil reserves estimated at 8.6 billion barrels.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090630-707897.html
posted 20 weeks ago
  3 kruijs[Power User]
Chevron backs out of Iraq's oil auction

Chevron had been expected to bid for the second largest oil field covered by Tuesday's auction, the West Qurna field near Basra. Working with French oil giant Total, Chevron had been discussing the field with Iraqi officials for more than a year. But in the end, Chevron decided not to bid.
posted 20 weeks ago
  4 kruijs[Power User]
"We have done so based upon our careful evaluation of the opportunities against Chevron's standard investment criteria and our inventory of investment projects worldwide," the company reported Tuesday in a prepared statement.

Chevron may bid in future rounds, the company said. Press reports this year said the oil ministry had invited Chevron to bid on the Nahr bin Umar oil field nearby, which will be handled in another auction.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/06/30/BU7718GKJ4.DTL
posted 20 weeks ago
  5 bayoubear[Admin]
ATTENTION TO ALL WAGERERS ON THESE IRAQI OIL FIELD QUESTIONS

It appears that most all of the bids are being submitted, not by the individual companies as listed, but by consortiums, led by one particular company, depending upon the field.

This question will be settled based on which company is the LEAD company in the consortium. Only if there is another company involved as the lead company, or if there is a 50/50 split between two companies in the deal would the settlement be 'other outcome'

This market has been reopened to allow for continued wagering and adjustments of positions. It may be extended beyond the current Sunday deadline if need be, depending upon the scheduling of bidding events.
posted 20 weeks ago

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