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Who will get most of the Oil fields in Iraq?

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Background:

Background: Iraq is scheduled to open its first postwar bidding for oil service contracts on Monday. International oil companies were expelled by Saddam Hussein more than 30 years ago.

Who will win the bidding for most of the reserves of the oil fields?

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jpBEKPNaF-qBe2TU2V6lmxCs2B6QD991RR000

The companies that qualified for the bidding, along with the fields and reserves, are compiled below. State-run oil firms do not count.

Companies by country/region

America
Chevron (USA)
ConocoPhilips (USA)
Exxon Mobil (USA)
Hess Corp. (USA)
Marathon International Petroleum Ltd. (USA)
Occidental Petroleum Corp (USA)
Nexen Inc. (CAN)

Europe
BP Group PLC. (GBR)
Edison International SPA and Eni. (ITA)
Total SA. (FRA)
Repsol YPF SA. (ESP)
StatoilHydro ASA. (NOR)
Royal Dutch Shell. (NED)
Maersk. (DEN)

Asia
Inpex Holdings Inc. (JPN)
Japex and Nippon Oil Corp. (JPN)
China's CNOOC Ltd. (CHN)
CNPC International Ltd. (CHN)
Sinochem International Co. Ltd. (CHN)
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical co. Ltd. (CHN)
Korea Gas Corp. (KOR)
ONGC Ltd. (IND)
Petronas Gas BHD. (MAS)
PT Pertamina. (INA)

Russia
JSC Lukoil
JSC Gazprom Neft

Oceania
BHP Billiton Ltd. (AUS)
Woodside Petroleum Ltd. (AUS)

Oil fields

Reservers in Billions of barrels

BASRA OIL FIELDS:
- Rumaila: 17.8
- West Qurna Stage 1: 8.6
- Zubair: 4.1
MISSAN OIL FIELDS:
- Total: 2.6
KIRKUK OIL FIELDS:
- Kirkuk: 8.0
- Bai Hassan: 2.4

CatEds Note:

Only one deal was accomplished, and there will be an additional round of bids in the months to come. So this question is being extended to allow for a least a few more auctions to be completed.

"Oil ministry spokesman Assem Jihad said Thursday that a new date for the second bid round hadn't been set, but that it could be held as early as within the next few months. It had originally been scheduled for December."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124653439569985287.html

This question is being reopened and extended until the end of September.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. Reserves summarized by amounts as listed in the background text.
Only companies listed in the background text are to be included.

 
Forecast history %
America
15%
Europe
58%
Asia
16%
Russia
0%
Oceania
0%
Other/Tie
10%
Predictions on this question are temporarily suspended

Suspend date: Wed 30th Sep 11:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: America: 30%, Europe: 15%, Asia: 15%, Russia: 15%, Oceania: 15%, Other/Tie: 10%

Action history:

Created Sun 28th Jun 10:34pm PST by kruijs[Power User]
Changed Question text Mon 29th Jun 9:26am PST by ryanj: ... Iraq - Who will get most of the Oil fields in Iraq?
Suspended Tue 30th Jun 7:59am PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 30th Jun 7:59am PST : Suspend date reached
Unsuspended Thu 2nd Jul 4:04am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: Confusion about when and how the bidding will resume allows for this question to be reopened for the time being.

This is being done at the request of the question creator.
Changed Suspend date Thu 2nd Jul 4:09am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2009-06-30 07:59:00"
Unsuspended Thu 2nd Jul 4:10am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: due to the uncertainty of the bidding process, question will run through the weekend, and will suspend if news reports warrant a change
Suspended Sun 5th Jul 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Mon 6th Jul 7:35am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2009-07-05 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Mon 6th Jul 7:36am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: Reopened until late September
Suspended Wed 30th Sep 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Suspend date: Wed 30th Sep 11:59pm PST details

 

Predictions (263)

7 weeks ago
donnamil predicted Europe (H$300 at 57%)
10 weeks ago
freeze predicted Europe (H$20 at 53%)
12 weeks ago
peterpredictor predicted Europe (H$50 at 52%)
12 weeks ago
oberon predicted Asia (H$50 at 23%)
14 weeks ago
bluberry predicted Europe (H$20 at 47%)

Comments (22)

  2 bayoubear[Admin]
Any idea as to when the winning bids will be announced?

Question is set to suspend tomorrow...
posted 20 weeks ago
  3 kruijs[Power User]
The bid round was planned to take place Monday, but the ministry postponed the first session to Tuesday because of a sandstorm that prevented airplanes carrying international companies' officials from landing at Baghdad airport. The awards were supposed to be announced in two sessions, one on Monday and one on Tuesday.

"We will try to complete the entire process on Tuesday but, if need be, it will be extended into Wednesday," said Abdul Mehdy al-Ameedi, deputy head of the oil ministry's Petroleum Contracts and Licensing Directorate, or PCLD.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090629-708733.html
posted 20 weeks ago
  4 bayoubear[Admin]
So is the proposed suspension time reasonable, or should it be pushed back a few hours....thanks
posted 20 weeks ago
Great Q krujis. As if there's any doubt who's nailing those contracts.

"... even if we (America) didn't go into Iraq for the oil, we sure as hell weren't leaving without it." - Greg Palast

So nice to see what the newest faux democracy looks like.
posted 20 weeks ago
  6 kruijs[Power User]
I'm not sure if I'm here at the moment the result are announced. but it would be good to leave this and the other ones open as long as possible.
posted 20 weeks ago
  7 mork[Power User]
What a glorious day for oil execs everywhere. And the people of Iraq can now be so grateful for the freedom that this day will always represent.

In an attempt to make this seem unjust some may use a metaphor of a bully elbowing his way to the cookie jar. Realistically how can such amazing and gracious deeds of this past war go unrewarded in our civilized society of today?

Developing an Iraqi corporation to manage their own oilfields would clearly not in the best interest of Iraq. That was part of the problem before we went to war with them. Just look at Venezuela and how annoying they are now.
posted 20 weeks ago
  8 dieseldog
mork - very well stated. there might be some who would want/force iraq to do it on their own. you know make them wait decades if not longer to modernise their oil production. :O)

how dare they make things so simple. jsvengy candyboy buckojo says its way more complicated. guess they forgot to consult him before going forward. :O)
posted 20 weeks ago
  9 buckojo
DD - Im pretty sure mork is being sarcastic...

BTW - i only use one tag on this site.
posted 20 weeks ago
  10 kruijs[Power User]
well done dieseldog: you got hand on the strike markup.
but who is candyboy?
posted 20 weeks ago
  12 kruijs[Power User]
The first licensing round of auctions for eight oil and gas fields in Iraq concluded Tuesday with only one successful bid.

A consortium led by BP PLC and including China National Petroleum Co. won the bid for the Rumaila oil field in southeastern Iraq.

Oil companies were surprised by the Iraqi oil ministry's aggressive pricing. The ministry gave a maximum per barrel fee for increasing current production at $2 a barrel for several fields. But the oil firms gave bids of around twice that figure to more than 10 times the oil ministry amount.

In a uniquely transparent process, the bids were open in public and winners were awarded points based on a mathematical formula established by the ministry. There were gasps after some bids were revealed, while everyone clapped each time an oil firm representative submitted a bid in a clear box set on a stage.

"It's surprisingly well organized for this kind of unusual process," said one Asian oil company official.

Iraq's internal politics and nationalist sensitivities surrounding the country's oil supply have complicated the bid round, with some lawmakers calling for a delay of the process and questioning the legality of the contracts.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124635835306572521.html
posted 20 weeks ago
  13 chatarra
@Koolcraft
Thanks for the informative link.

(Boy, did I bet wrong on this one. . . )
posted 20 weeks ago
  14 kruijs[Power User]
... looking at that red line, I guess many people did so, chatarra
posted 20 weeks ago
  15 kruijs[Power User]
Happy Fourth!

As July 4th, our Independence Day, rolls around and we begin our troop withdrawal; as the Iraqis celebrate and after untold thousands of US soldiers have died and a million Iraqis to boot . . .

After the torturous interrogations by not so intelligent intelligence and contractors for actionable intelligence; after contaminating the country with Depleted Uranium; after shocking and awing the Cradle of Civilization and poisoning its food chain for posterity . . .

But mostly, after Bush and Cheney lied their way into war in search of non-existent weapons of mass destruction, now we allow the Chinese to do Iraq’s oil contract bidding so they won’t call in our two trillion in debt markers. Have a beer on me. Have two. For the two trillion we’ve blown in this pointless, even humiliating war.

As the New York Times reports in As Iraq Stabilizes, China Bids on Its Oil Fields, our British “buddies” BP are partnered with the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) to win the first awarded contract in the latest Chinese grab for Iraq’s oil, a bit ballsy even though the country remains in our somewhat illegal sphere of interest.

http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_4867.shtml
posted 20 weeks ago
  16 Erik
"...after Bush and Cheney lied their way into war in search of non-existent weapons of mass destruction..."

Like Francisco Franco, Saddam Hussein is still dead, but the Washington Post reports on a new (all right, newly released) series of interviews with the Iraqi dictator, who was hanged in 2006 for crimes against humanity. The Post reports that Saddam acknowledged to an FBI interviewer "that he allowed the world to believe he had weapons of mass destruction because he was worried about appearing weak to Iran":

Hussein, in fact, said he felt so vulnerable to the perceived threat from "fanatic" leaders in Tehran that he would have been prepared to seek a "security agreement with the United States to protect [Iraq] from threats in the region." . . .

Hussein noted that Iran's weapons capabilities had increased dramatically while Iraq's weapons "had been eliminated by the UN sanctions," and that eventually Iraq would have to reconstitute its weapons to deal with that threat if it could not reach a security agreement with the United States.

The bad news is that Iran continues to pursue nuclear weapons. The good news is that Iraq has reached a security agreement with the U.S.

This ought to (but will not) silence those who've been determined to rewrite history with the claim that Iraq's weapons of mass destruction were an invention of President Bush. Bush did not lie; he made a mistake--the same mistake everyone else in the world made, and a mistake Saddam, now by his own admission, encouraged them to make.

If Saddam was a victim, it was not of American lies and aggression but of his own too-successful efforts at misdirection.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/01/AR2009070104217.html
posted 20 weeks ago
  17 buckojo
"Mistaken"

Sure. But are we to ignore how that mistake happened. Yes, perhaps Saddam wanted people to believe that he had WMD's when he actually didn't. It needs to be recalled however that the US Intel service that provided the 'irrefutable proof' of WMD's appears to have been largely influenced by perceived prevailing ideology of the US administration; notsimply a con job from Saddam.

Ideology obviates the need for crude conspiracy. How many other 'mistakes' will be swept under the carpet or left unaccountable because of systemic ideological failures which remain unadressed?
posted 20 weeks ago
  18 kruijs[Power User]
@Erik.

Just see some circumstances in a brighter light:

So: The US intelligence services failed to see through Saddams illusion of WMD. Although the "proof" presented by the US to the UN was everything but convincing - even to many Americans (see below) - they did not manage to reveal that there actually were no WMD. Somehow, I can't conclude otherwise than to assume intend, because I cannot believe that US intelligence services are so dumb or incompetent.

So: If the US would actually have wanted to remove a "thread" of WMD, which Iraq knowingly was not, they could have cooperated with Iraq. I am quite certain that the US knew . But it wasn't even worth a consideration. Why?

Erik, may I remind you of the following:

"The poll found 63% of Americans want President Bush to find a diplomatic solution. What's more, Americans seem to want hard evidence that Iraq is cheating. More than two-thirds (77% to 17%) say if inspectors haven't found a smoking gun, they should keep looking."
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/01/23/opinion/polls/main537739.shtml
"THE former American secretary of state Colin Powell has revealed that he spent 2½ hours vainly trying to persuade President George W Bush not to invade Iraq"
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article2042072.ece

Now, did the US find a smoking gun? Really? Would it have played any role?

"A confidential record of a meeting between President Bush and Tony Blair before the invasion of Iraq, outlining their intention to go to war without a second United Nations resolution, will be an explosive issue for the official inquiry into the UK's role in toppling Saddam Hussein.

The memo, written on 31 January 2003, almost two months before the invasion and seen by the Observer, confirms that as the two men became increasingly aware UN inspectors would fail to find weapons of mass destruction (WMD) they had to contemplate alternative scenarios that might trigger a second resolution legitimising military action. "
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jun/21/iraq-inquiry-tony-blair-bush

And:

"Russia, Germany and France, in close coordination, reaffirm that disarming Iraq, in accordance with the relevant resolutions since U.N. Resolution 687, is the common objective of the international community and must be achieved as soon as possible.

There is a debate on how this should be done. (...) Any solution must be inspired by the principles of the United Nations charter as were recently quoted by the secretary general Kofi Annan.

U.N. Resolution 1441, adopted unanimously by the U.N. Security Council, provides a framework of which the potential has not yet been fully exploited.

(...)

There is still an alternative to war. The use of force can only be considered as a last resort. Russia, Germany and France are determined to ensure that everything possible is done to disarm Iraq peacefully." (supported by China, btw)

Now, Erik, who is rewriting history?
posted 20 weeks ago
  19 kruijs[Power User]
  20 bayoubear[Admin]
Regarding this question...in a similar fashion to the ones on the individual oil fields, we may be seeing consortiums led by one company winning the bids, and in that case, the country of the lead company would be the one given credit for earning the rights....wagering on the individual fields has been extended as the bidding process continues
posted 20 weeks ago
  21 mork[Power User]
Bush, Rumsfeld and Cheney had a responsibility to consider the chance that Saddam was bluffing. They chose to blatantly neglect that responsibility and even refused to acknowledge any facts which indicated the bluff.

As the world murmurs "Shame on you" The people of America neglect their democratic responsibility to hold them accountable.
posted 19 weeks ago
  22 kruijs[Power User]
More from the glorious "brilliant and successful operation that has kept us all safer", the US "doing it's level best to bring law and order to the region."

UNESCO: US seriously damaged historic Babylon

U.S. troops and contractors in Iraq inflicted serious damage on Babylon, driving heavy machinery over sacred paths, bulldozing hilltops and digging trenches through one of the world's greatest archaeological sites, experts for UNESCO said Thursday.

"The use of Babylon as a military base was a grave encroachment on this internationally known archaeological site," said a report which the U.N. cultural agency presented in Paris.

UNESCO officials stressed that the damage didn't begin with the U.S. military nor fully end after it left. Archaeologists took away some of Babylon's finest treasures in the 19th century, Saddam Hussein embellished the site with his own structures, and looters returned when the Americans handed the site back to the Iraqis 21 months after the March 2003 invasion.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hYZIpEAwUtMB_AcIgjEnAwm6vGigD99B4D9O0

God bless America, and protect her servicemen!
posted 19 weeks ago

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