Created Tue 30th Jun 2009 5:46am PST by
youbet
What sentence, if any, for Allen Stanford, the little Madoff?
Voided
Recent news reports indicate that any trial will not begin until 2011 at the earliest. It would seem to be best to void this question and allow someone to create a new one if there is the interest still out there, rather than reopening this one and allowing it to drag on for another year.
Background:>
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
What sentence, if any, for Allen Stanford, the little Madoff?
0 > 25 years
25 years
26 -50 years
More than 50 years
Zoom out
Forecast history %
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| 0 > 25 years | |
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| 25 years | |
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| 26 -50 years | |
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| More than 50 years | |
Voided Thu 31st Dec 2009 8:27am PST
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST
Initial likelihoods:
0 > 25 years: 5%, 25 years: 15%, 26 -50 years: 40%, More than 50 years: 40%
Action history:
Created Tue 30th Jun 2009 5:46am PST by
youbet
Changed Description Tue 30th Jun 2009 1:56pm PST by
bayoubear![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)

:
show details ... <Sort of like Madoff, but on a smaller scale. Trial is slated to begin in late July or early August.<br/> <br/> "Financier R. Allen Stanford was charged with orchestrating fraud through his Caribbean-based financial firm, Stanford Financial Group, The Wall Street Journal reported late Thursday in Washington. Stanford has turned himself in to federal agents in Virginia, the report said. The Justice Department is expected to formally announce the charges returned by a Houston grand jury Friday, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter. "<br/> <br/> <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/financier-allen-stanford-indicted-on-fraud-charges </a> <br/> <br/> "U.S. Magistrate Judge Frances Stacy had approved a plan for Stanford to pay $500,000, including a $100,000 cash deposit, that would allow Stanford to walk free until his trial begins in August.<br/> <br/> Judge Stacy then stayed the issuance of Stanford's bond after the U.S. government objected on the grounds that Stanford is a flight risk." <br/> <br/> <a href="http://money.cnn.
Changed Question text Wed 1st Jul 2009 5:19am PST by
bayoubear![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)

:
... What for sentence for Allen Stanford, the
Suspended Sun 2nd Aug 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Sun 2nd Aug 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Unsuspended Sat 29th Aug 2009 4:01am PST by
bayoubear![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)

:
Trial proceedings are moving slowly, and Stanford was admitted to the hospital, so lwt's reopen the question....
Changed Suspend date Sat 29th Aug 2009 4:02am PST by
bayoubear![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)

:
was: "2009-08-02 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Sat 29th Aug 2009 4:03am PST by
bayoubear![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)

:
reopened as trial is moving so slowly
Suspended Sun 20th Sep 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Tue 22nd Sep 2009 8:58am PST by
bayoubear![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)

:
was: "2009-09-20 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Tue 22nd Sep 2009 8:58am PST by
bayoubear![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)

:
Looks like the trial is no where near ready to start, so we'll open this back up for at least another two months....
Suspended Fri 20th Nov 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Mon 23rd Nov 2009 4:33am PST by
bayoubear![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)

:
was: "2009-11-20 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Mon 23rd Nov 2009 4:33am PST by
bayoubear![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)

:
Trial is still delayed...resetting suspension for the end of the year...just in case, but may be extended again
Voided Thu 31st Dec 2009 8:27am PST by
bayoubear![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)

:
Recent news reports indicate that any trial will not begin until 2011 at the earliest. It would seem to be best to void this question and allow someone to create a new one if there is the interest still out there, rather than reopening this one and allowing it to drag on for another year.
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST details
Predictions (40)
17 weeks ago
swamee
predicted
0 > 25 years (H$20 at 17%)
25 weeks ago
zeebac
predicted
0 > 25 years (H$20 at 14%)
25 weeks ago
mbvg
predicted
26 -50 years (H$20 at 56%)
26 weeks ago
flamingo
predicted
0 > 25 years (H$50 at 13%)
Comments (8)
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Justice has nothing to do with predicting the statistics of the talk of the town.
Sir Allen ???? Stanford is a big time idiot !
In any case, it is possible that - were guilt found on multiple charges - the outcome could well depend on whether the sentences run consecutively or concurrrently, were suspended in part or whole, and the effect of time served. (Presumably appeals and parole and such might well also lead to a reduced sentence but wouldn't count.) This could make it difficult to determine the 'correct' outcome - and in any case 25 years (or is that between 25 and 26?) seems a relatively unlikely figure compared to the other outcomes with ranges stated (tho by no means impossible). (Also, 0 to 25 seems to me to include 25...)
As to the substance: The Madoff sentencing scale runs at about .36 of a second per dollar burned (on the low estimate of $13 billion; much lower on the $50-65 billion high estimates); the amount in this case seems to be around $7 billion. Sir Allen is considerably younger than Bernie, so if found guilty and sentenced accordingly, he might well end up serving a lot more time. Foreign rather than US investors are alleged to be the victims for the lion's share (other way round for Bernie), and of course while Madoff was entitled to consideration for pleading guilty, many felt that he did so to protect family members. Some associates of Mr. Stanford are also expected to be on trial, so (in a sense) pleading not guilty should not really penalise him, as - if any crimes were committed - responsibility may be shared or lie less heavily on Sir Allen with respect to particular charges.
Texas is known for relatively harsh sentences (tho I have some recollection that this is much less true for 'white collar' crime), but while I haven't yet found this in the press reports, I suspect his trial is to be in Federal rather State Court. Given everything, I think what this really boils down to is whether (assuming guilt is proved) the crimes are considered as a whole - in which case the sentences may well run 'concurrently', and I doubt the longest part would exceed 25 years - or as a set of separate crimes (either all 21 charges, or as a set of say 3/4 'related' crimes each with a bunch of charges) in which case a total sentence of over 50 years could well be plausible. Another factor could well be the length of time the whole 'scheme' had been run (if it is one); Bernie kept his up for ages and ages in financial market terms, while Sir Allen appears to be on trial as purely a 21st century criminal...
...however, the main point I am trying to make is that the 'headline' sentence (if any) may say one thing and mean another, forcing the category editor to effectively decide the outcome...
...so any way, sorry, youbet, I respect the purpose of the q. but still feel this one needs substantial further revision or voided.
Bloomberg News Wednesday, September 16, 2009
R. Allen Stanford, the Texas financier accused of running a $7 billion investor fraud, will be represented by the federal public defender's office in his criminal case because he has no money to hire an attorney.
Stanford's previous attorney, Dick DeGuerin, has estimated it will cost more than $20 million and take a year to prepare for a trial that could last six months.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/15/AR2009091503431.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aumD.AqRGkYU&pos=7
That being the case, it seems to be best to void the question and allow someone to create something new related to this, rather than reopen and extend this question for another 12 plus months..
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