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What sentence, if any, for Allen Stanford, the little Madoff?

Suspended

Suspend date reached

Background:

Background: Sort of like Madoff, but on a smaller scale. Trial is slated to begin in late July or early August.

"Financier R. Allen Stanford was charged with orchestrating fraud through his Caribbean-based financial firm, Stanford Financial Group, The Wall Street Journal reported late Thursday in Washington. Stanford has turned himself in to federal agents in Virginia, the report said. The Justice Department is expected to formally announce the charges returned by a Houston grand jury Friday, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter. "



Judge Stacy then stayed the issuance of Stanford's bond after the U.S. government objected on the grounds that Stanford is a flight risk."

http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/25/news/companies/sanford_jail.reut/index.htm

CatEd's Note:Trial is slated to begin in August...once it begins we may have a better idea of when sentencing may occur and can reset the suspension date. In the event of an acquittal, the question will settle as 0>25 years.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
0 > 25 years
17%
25 years
6%
26 -50 years
55%
More than 50 years
22%
Predictions on this question are temporarily suspended

Suspend date: Fri 20th Nov 11:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: 0 > 25 years: 5%, 25 years: 15%, 26 -50 years: 40%, More than 50 years: 40%

Action history:

Created Tue 30th Jun 5:46am PST by youbet
Changed Question text Wed 1st Jul 5:19am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: ... What for sentence for Allen Stanford, the
Suspended Sun 2nd Aug 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Sun 2nd Aug 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Unsuspended Sat 29th Aug 4:01am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: Trial proceedings are moving slowly, and Stanford was admitted to the hospital, so lwt's reopen the question....
Changed Suspend date Sat 29th Aug 4:02am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2009-08-02 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Sat 29th Aug 4:03am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: reopened as trial is moving so slowly
Suspended Sun 20th Sep 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Tue 22nd Sep 8:58am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2009-09-20 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Tue 22nd Sep 8:58am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: Looks like the trial is no where near ready to start, so we'll open this back up for at least another two months....
Suspended Fri 20th Nov 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Suspend date: Fri 20th Nov 11:59pm PST details

 

Predictions (39)

21 hours ago
swamee predicted 0 > 25 years (H$20 at 17%)
3 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted 0 > 25 years (H$200 at 15%)
8 weeks ago
zeebac predicted 0 > 25 years (H$20 at 14%)
8 weeks ago
mbvg predicted 26 -50 years (H$20 at 56%)
9 weeks ago
flamingo predicted 0 > 25 years (H$50 at 13%)

Comments (6)

There hasn't been a trial date set. I think this will not settle for close to a year
posted 20 weeks ago
  2 bookie
I see bayoubear has clarified the question somewhat but that it remains flagged for review. youbet, I flagged this question, in part because I believe it is potentially defamatory and/or prejudicial to Sir Allen. Under the relevant legal system, defendents are considered innocent until proven guilty. Except in cases like Madoff (who made a guilty plea), markets on sentences for unconvicted defendants should not be permitted in the interests of justice - not to mention the interests of Hubdub.
posted 20 weeks ago
  3 youbet
The trial is expected at the beginning of August.
---
Justice has nothing to do with predicting the statistics of the talk of the town.
Sir Allen ???? Stanford is a big time idiot !
posted 20 weeks ago
  4 bookie
I see there are 21 charges (with a maximum sentence of 375 years in all), to which the man in orange (how prejudicial is that!) has pled not guilty. The question has been considerably cleaned up to be less prejudicial, but I still suggest that an outcome of 0-25 years - were this to be the case - doesn't sound much like an acquittal, and could still be defamatory if that were to occur. (Go on, pretend to be a texan cricket loving billionaire for a moment - how would you feel?) [OK, if press reports that his CFO has reached a plea agreement are true, he won't be likely to be returning to Lords or Antigua any time soon...]

In any case, it is possible that - were guilt found on multiple charges - the outcome could well depend on whether the sentences run consecutively or concurrrently, were suspended in part or whole, and the effect of time served. (Presumably appeals and parole and such might well also lead to a reduced sentence but wouldn't count.) This could make it difficult to determine the 'correct' outcome - and in any case 25 years (or is that between 25 and 26?) seems a relatively unlikely figure compared to the other outcomes with ranges stated (tho by no means impossible). (Also, 0 to 25 seems to me to include 25...)

As to the substance: The Madoff sentencing scale runs at about .36 of a second per dollar burned (on the low estimate of $13 billion; much lower on the $50-65 billion high estimates); the amount in this case seems to be around $7 billion. Sir Allen is considerably younger than Bernie, so if found guilty and sentenced accordingly, he might well end up serving a lot more time. Foreign rather than US investors are alleged to be the victims for the lion's share (other way round for Bernie), and of course while Madoff was entitled to consideration for pleading guilty, many felt that he did so to protect family members. Some associates of Mr. Stanford are also expected to be on trial, so (in a sense) pleading not guilty should not really penalise him, as - if any crimes were committed - responsibility may be shared or lie less heavily on Sir Allen with respect to particular charges.

Texas is known for relatively harsh sentences (tho I have some recollection that this is much less true for 'white collar' crime), but while I haven't yet found this in the press reports, I suspect his trial is to be in Federal rather State Court. Given everything, I think what this really boils down to is whether (assuming guilt is proved) the crimes are considered as a whole - in which case the sentences may well run 'concurrently', and I doubt the longest part would exceed 25 years - or as a set of separate crimes (either all 21 charges, or as a set of say 3/4 'related' crimes each with a bunch of charges) in which case a total sentence of over 50 years could well be plausible. Another factor could well be the length of time the whole 'scheme' had been run (if it is one); Bernie kept his up for ages and ages in financial market terms, while Sir Allen appears to be on trial as purely a 21st century criminal...

...however, the main point I am trying to make is that the 'headline' sentence (if any) may say one thing and mean another, forcing the category editor to effectively decide the outcome...

...so any way, sorry, youbet, I respect the purpose of the q. but still feel this one needs substantial further revision or voided.
posted 20 weeks ago
  5 bayoubear[Admin]
Question has been reopened as the trial is moving along quite slowly (no surprise there) and Sanford has been admitted to the hospital with heart problems (who knew he had one)....new date is mid-September or so, and we'll revisit the issue if necessary...
posted 11 weeks ago
  6 bayoubear[Admin]
Trial still hasn't begun, so we've reopened this question again and set the new suspension date for mid-to-late November...here's a recent newslink and excerpt:

Bloomberg News Wednesday, September 16, 2009

R. Allen Stanford, the Texas financier accused of running a $7 billion investor fraud, will be represented by the federal public defender's office in his criminal case because he has no money to hire an attorney.
Stanford's previous attorney, Dick DeGuerin, has estimated it will cost more than $20 million and take a year to prepare for a trial that could last six months.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/15/AR2009091503431.html
posted 8 weeks ago

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