Created Tue 30th Jun 1:38pm PST by

bookie Level 13, Psychic (H$76,717)

Monthly Black Gold... How many barrels of oil will an ounce of gold buy as of 1 August 2009?

Settled as 1 oz =>12 but less than 14 barrels

13.8 - Marketwatch reports gold at $956 (checked against 957, makes no material difference), oil at $69.04 (13.8470)

Background:

Background: Two commodities, one bright and durable, the other dark and consumable, extracted from the earth, refined, and held in stockpiles. Back in the 60s when gold was fixed at $35 per oz, oil was $2.50-$3 per barrel. In 2000, gold was in mid $200 range, while oil was roughly $24 per barrel. In 2008, there was a period when an ounce of gold would get you only 4-5 barrels; in mid-February 2009, you could get more than 25. So - as of the close of the (US) markets on July 31st (a Friday) how many barrels of oil will my ounce of gold theoretically buy? The suspend date is set for the start of trading that week (26th) to ensure some uncertainty at the end...

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source (Marketwatch will do... )

Forecast history %

1 oz => (equal to or more than) 16 barrels

1 oz => 14 but less than 16 barrels

98%

1 oz =>12 but less than 14 barrels

1 oz =>10 but less than 12 barrels

1 oz is worth less than 10 barrels

Settled as 1 oz =>12 but less than 14 barrels on Sat 1st Aug 5:57am PST

Activity: H$35,163
Predictions: 55
Comments: 5

Suspend date: Sat 25th Jul 11pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 1st Aug 5:57am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 25th Jul 11pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 1 oz => (equal to or more than) 16 barrels: 4%, 1 oz => 14 but less than 16 barrels: 18%, 1 oz =>12 but less than 14 barrels: 56%, 1 oz =>10 but less than 12 barrels: 18%, 1 oz is worth less than 10 barrels: 4%

Action history:

Created Tue 30th Jun 1:38pm PST by

bookie Level 13, Psychic (H$76,717)

Suspended Sat 25th Jul 11pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Fri 31st Jul 12:40pm PST by

bookie Level 13, Psychic (H$76,717)

: I make it 13.8 - Marketwatch reports gold at $956 (checked against 957, makes no material difference), oil at $69.04

Settled as '1 oz =>12 but less than 14 barrels' Sat 1st Aug 5:57am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: 13.8 - Marketwatch reports gold at $956 (checked against 957, makes no material difference), oil at $69.04 (13.8470)

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Predictions (55)

15 weeks ago

n1kkc

predicted 1 oz => 14 but less than 16 barrels (H$10,000 at 93%)

15 weeks ago

twalker1030 Level 13, Psychic (H$85,859)

predicted 1 oz =>12 but less than 14 barrels (H$20 at 11%)

15 weeks ago

jasonrodgers787 Level 7, Pro (H$3,601)

predicted 1 oz => 14 but less than 16 barrels (H$15 at 84%)

15 weeks ago

rdeggau Level 14, Prophet (H$113,238)

predicted 1 oz =>12 but less than 14 barrels (H$50 at 10%)

15 weeks ago

garyfara Level 8, Super-Pro (H$7,256)

predicted 1 oz => 14 but less than 16 barrels (H$20 at 85%)

Comments (5)

bookie Level 13, Psychic (H$76,717)

You know, these black gold markets seem a fair bit more volatile than I had thought, but I'm not sure how to adjust the starting odds - wider bands, or what? Any thoughts?

posted 16 weeks ago

bayoubear [Admin]

Actually, you might be better off with narrower bands, each reflecting the value of one barrel...then adjust the percentages appropriately

posted 16 weeks ago

bookie Level 13, Psychic (H$76,717)

I make it 14.1 just now (Monday) - I think n1kkc and those last minute private buyers at 14-16 could be in for a shock... not that it'll help me, my H$ are all on 16+ !

I think I'm going to listen to Petefin next time! BTW - shall I follow Bayoubear's advice, and if so what should the percentages be? (e.g. say the middle band is 14-15, others would be less than 13, 13-14, 15-16, more than 16 - should it be 20/20/20/20/20 or what?

I'll try to get next month done before the end of the week...

posted 14 weeks ago

bookie Level 13, Psychic (H$76,717)

I make it 13.9 this am - close of play today will determine the outcome.

I may switch settlement to figures from Bloomberg as MW uses whole dollar price for gold now... it could just make a difference this month!

I'll try to post the next one in a few hours - last chance for comments on bands and odds!

posted 14 weeks ago

bookie Level 13, Psychic (H$76,717)

I'd call it 13.8 - both oil and gold rallied today.

posted 14 weeks ago