Created Wed 1st Jul 2:33pm PST by

onedave [Power User]

Will there be more hurricanes in the Atlantic or the Eastern Pacific?

Background: As of July 1, no hurricanes had formed in the Atlantic basin and one hurricane had formed in the Pacific. The NOAA predicted that 6-10 hurricanes would form in the Pacific. William Gray's latest prediction for the Atlantic is 5 hurricanes.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2009/index.shtml
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Atlantic_hurricane_season
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Pacific_hurricane_season

Settlement details:As reported by http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. If a tropical cyclone is active at the suspend date, question will settle when all tropical cyclones have dissipated.

Forecast history %

Pacific has six or more hurricanes

Pacific has four or five more hurricanes

94%

Pacific has three more hurricanes

Pacific has one or two more hurricanes

A tie, or the Atlantic has more hurricanes

Question suspends in 1 week

Activity: H$47,293
Predictions: 133
Comments: 12

Suspend date: Mon 30th Nov 11am PST (1 week to go)

Initial likelihoods: Pacific has six or more hurricanes: 13%, Pacific has four or five more hurricanes: 22%, Pacific has three more hurricanes: 30%, Pacific has one or two more hurricanes: 22%, A tie, or the Atlantic has more hurricanes: 13%

Action history:

Created Wed 1st Jul 2:33pm PST by

onedave [Power User]

Changed Question text Sat 4th Jul 8:29am PST by

ryanj

: ... in the Atlantic or the Eastern Pacific?

Changed Suspend date Sat 4th Jul 8:29am PST by

ryanj

: was: "2009-11-30 19:00:00"

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Suspend date: Mon 30th Nov 11am PST (1 week to go) details

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Predictions (133)

1 day ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted Pacific has three more hurricanes (H$100 at 2%)

1 week ago

onedave [Power User]

predicted Pacific has three more hurricanes (H$1 at 1%)

4 weeks ago

allenger Level 9, Expert (H$9,754)

predicted A tie, or the Atlantic has more hurricanes (H$15 at 7%)

4 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,678,940)

predicted Pacific has six or more hurricanes (H$250 at 14%)

4 weeks ago

wagmaster2000 Level 5, Predictor (H$1,883)

predicted Pacific has six or more hurricanes (H$20 at 10%)

Comments (12)

sqlman [Admin]

I assume you are talking strictly about the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, which is entirely separate from the Western Pacific typhoon (hurricane) season, correct?

posted 20 weeks ago

onedave [Power User]

@sqlman: You are correct. Only Eastern Pacific hurricanes count.

posted 20 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

the score is e. pacific 2 : atlantic 0

posted 18 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

make that 3 : 0

posted 15 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Guillermo makes it 4:0

posted 14 weeks ago

onedave [Power User]

Hurricane Bill became the first Atlantic hurricane.
Pacific 4-1.

posted 13 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Jimena makes it 5-1 Pacific!

posted 12 weeks ago

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$357,354)

Last option is unclear... do u mean one hurricane?

posted 10 weeks ago

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$357,354)

Sorry, I mis-spoke... It makes sense now.... OOPS :) dont know embarrassed sign..

posted 10 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

no, it seems pretty clear: last option is: the number is the same between Atlantic and Eastern Pacific or there are more in the Atlantic. One is accounted for in the one or two more hurricanes.

posted 10 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Linda and Fred make it 6 :2 Pacific

posted 10 weeks ago

onedave [Power User]

Atlantic: Bill, Fred and Ida
Eastern Pacific: Andres, Carlos, Felicia, Guillermo, Jimena, Linda and Rick

Eastern Pacific 7-3

posted 1 week ago