How many at bats before Manny Ramirez hits a HR?

Suspend date: Fri 10th Jul 9:05am PST
Settlement date: Sun 5th Jul 7:03am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 4th Jul 12:10pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 5 or fewer at bats: 8%, 6 to 10 AB: 8%, 11 to 15 AB: 8%, 16 to 20 AB: 8%, 21 to 25 AB: 8%, 26 to 30 AB: 8%, 31 to 35 AB: 8%, 36 to 40 AB: 8%, No HR in first 40 AB: 36%

Action history:

Created Wed 1st Jul 9:09pm PST by philculp

Settlement requested Sat 4th Jul 6:24pm PST by jondoeforty1: HR hit in his 4th official at bat.Sat July 4th 1st inning
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore;_ylt=Amnl_AhKuCfcPNUW5_80zU85nYcB?gid=290704125

Suspended Sat 4th Jul 8:33pm PST by mrperfkt: Suspended pending settlement

Settled as '5 or fewer at bats' Sun 5th Jul 7:03am PST by mrperfkt: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=290704125

Per hubdub rules, the cut off is set to the start of the determining game, which began at 4:10pm EST

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Suspend date: Fri 10th Jul 9:05am PST
Settlement date: Sun 5th Jul 7:03am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 4th Jul 12:10pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details