U. S. Car Sales--Will July's data show increases or decreases from 2008?

Suspend date: Wed 29th Jul 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 15th Aug 2009 3:24am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 29th Jul 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: July car sales increase by any amount: 3%, July car sales decrease by 0.1% to 10%: 10%, July car sales decrease by 10.01% to 20%: 25%, July car sales decrease by 20.01% to 30%: 30%, July car sales decrease by 30.01% to 40%: 22%, July car sales decrease by 40.01% or greater: 10%

Action history:

Created Thu 2nd Jul 2009 7:46am PST by bayoubear

Suspended Wed 29th Jul 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Mon 3rd Aug 2009 10:26am PST by mickeydaniel: Please settle as decrease 20.01% to 30.00%. US car sales decrease 20.8% in July. http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/industries/transportation/general-motors-july-sales-fall/

Settlement requested Tue 4th Aug 2009 4:37am PST by nanotube: The motorintelligence.com data shows that July 2009 car sales are down by 12% compared to that of july 2008

http://www.motorintelligence.com/m_frameset.html

Settlement requested Sat 8th Aug 2009 10:40am PST by yogi: Now 9th August these figures for July.

Settlement requested Fri 14th Aug 2009 5:45pm PST by madbuns: While there are many sources of information, the overall believe is that the Cash for Clunkers program was very effective in moderating the negative growth in auto sales that has been experienced during 2009. The Wall Street Journal posted year-on-year change for total light vehicle sales (the basis for prior results) as 12.2%. Accordingly, the question may be settled as 'July car sales decrease by 10.01% to 20%.'

(as an aside, I picked between 10% and 40% down, so, I win regardless of which report is used - I believe the WSJ to be the most consistent historically relevant source).

WSJ Article

'http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html'

Settled as 'July car sales decrease by 10.01% to 20%' Sat 15th Aug 2009 3:24am PST by bayoubear: the decrease in sales was much less than most expected, probably due to the success of the Cash for Clunkers program

Data from the WSJ shows that sales for this July compared to last July only declined by 10.6%


Car Sales July 09 554,527 % Change from July 08 -10.6%

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html

Thanks to Madbuns for the settlement info ! ! ! !

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Suspend date: Wed 29th Jul 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 15th Aug 2009 3:24am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 29th Jul 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details