Wimbledon, Serena Williams - Venus Williams, who will win the 1st Set?

Settled as Serena

http://www.wimbledon.org/en_GB/scores/cmatch/20ws.html

Background:

Background: Ladies' Singles, Final
http://www.wimbledon.org/en_GB/scores/draws/ws/r7s1.html

The Williams sisters have played 20 times before, and the series is tied, 10-10.
They are 2-2 on grass, with Venus winning in the 2000 Wimbledon semifinals and the 2008 Wimbledon final and Serena winning in the 2002 & 2003 Wimbledon final.
They are 1-1 this year, with Venus winning in the Dubai semifinals and Serena winning in the Miami semifinals. Perhaps the only relevant head-to-head lead is Serena's 5-2 edge in Grand Slam finals, although Venus won their last one.
http://tinyurl.com/SerenaVenus

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Serena

53%

Venus

47%

Settled as Serena on Sat 4th Jul 2009 7:13am PST

Activity: H$10,632
Predictions: 30
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Sat 4th Jul 2009 4am PST
Settlement date: Sat 4th Jul 2009 7:13am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 4th Jul 2009 4am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Serena: 45%, Venus: 55%

Action history:

Created Thu 2nd Jul 2009 4:48pm PST by

sdchargers [Power User]

Suspended Sat 4th Jul 2009 4am PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Sat 4th Jul 2009 6:36am PST by