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Diesel fuel up or down? Which will come first: $2.55 or $2.70 on or before July 31, 2009?

Settled as Diesel drops to $2.55 or below

Fuelgaugereport.com reported diesel fuel price as $2.547 early Friday morning

Background:

Background: Diesel fuel hung around $2.25 for over a month this spring then had a big runup in May and June, peaking near $2.65, following the sharp rise in oil prices. Compared to its high of $4.845 less than a year ago, it still seems cheap, but prices have moved higher. A month ago, the average price in the USA was $2.418. One week ago, it was $2.631, but has drifted down a bit since to $2.627 today. The remarkable run-up these past few weeks may or may not continue in July.
The question is: Will a gallon of diesel fuel price drop back to $2.55 or less, rise to 2.70 or more, or remain between the two values between now and July 31, 2009 (inclusive) in the USA, as reported by AAA fuelgaugereport? The price is updated daily in the early morning hours.

Settlement details:As reported by the AAA: http://www.fuelgaugereport.com on or before July 31, 2009.

 
Forecast history %
Diesel drops to $2.55 or below
95%
Diesel rises to $2.70 or more
0%
Diesel does neither by July 31, 2009 (inclusive)
5%
Settled as Diesel drops to $2.55 or below on Fri 17th Jul 4:38am PST

Suspend date: Thu 16th Jul 7:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 17th Jul 4:38am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 16th Jul 7:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Diesel drops to $2.55 or below: 33%, Diesel rises to $2.70 or more: 34%, Diesel does neither by July 31, 2009 (inclusive): 33%

Action history:

Created Fri 3rd Jul 3:11am PST by tuff_sledding[Power User]
Changed Suspend date Thu 16th Jul 6:32am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2009-07-28 18:59:00"
Suspended Thu 16th Jul 6:33am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: change in suspension time...check comments...reopening in a moment
Unsuspended Thu 16th Jul 6:34am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: Question will suspend tonight at midnight EDT, will reopen in the morning if it hasn't settled...check comments
Suspended Thu 16th Jul 7:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Diesel drops to $2.55 or below' Fri 17th Jul 4:38am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: Fuelgaugereport.com reported diesel fuel price as $2.547 early Friday morning

Suspend date: Thu 16th Jul 7:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 17th Jul 4:38am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 16th Jul 7:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (98)

16 weeks ago
aaronwinborn predicted Diesel drops to $2.55 or below (H$100 at 94%)
16 weeks ago
post predicted Diesel drops to $2.55 or below (H$100 at 94%)
16 weeks ago
gtown[Power User] predicted Diesel drops to $2.55 or below (H$1,000 at 93%)
16 weeks ago
gonegonegone predicted Diesel drops to $2.55 or below (H$5,000 at 95%)
17 weeks ago
gtown[Power User] predicted Diesel drops to $2.55 or below (H$50 at 11%)

Comments (4)

  1 bayoubear[Admin]
Diesel was $2.568 on Tuesday, and today the reported price was $2.561.

Looks like $2.55 or below will be along pretty soon...

BTW...On my recent travels, I saw gas in the $2.30 range in Texas, then $2.40 in Louisiana before returning and finding my gas at home in Mississippi was as low as $2.27........LET'S HIT THE ROAD ! ! !
posted 16 weeks ago
yeap, diesel is down 10 cents from a week ago. Only 1.1 cent to go by the end of the month. this one's in the bag - someone has been betting big bucks on neither for the past few days, repeatedly giving me attractive entry points - thank you, whoever you are, for helping POTUS re-distribtute your wealth.....
posted 16 weeks ago
down to 2.554. steady pace of decline, only 0.4 cents to go....
posted 16 weeks ago
  4 bayoubear[Admin]
Yep...looks like tonight's report should settle the matter...going to reset the suspension time to Midnight EDT to avoid any late plays or sales of positions after the result is known. Will reopen early tomorrow in case it doesn't make it tonight....
posted 16 weeks ago

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