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Will there be more named storms in the Atlantic or the Pacific?

Background: As of July 2, no tropical storms or hurricanes had formed in the Atlantic basin and one hurricane had formed in the Pacific. The NOAA predicted that 13-18 named storms would form in the Pacific. William Gray's latest prediction for the Atlantic is 11 named storms.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2009/index.shtml
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Atlantic_hurricane_season
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Pacific_hurricane_season

Settlement details:As reported by http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. Question will settle when all tropical cyclones have dissipated after original suspension date.

 
Forecast history %
Pacific has 7+ named storms or more
92%
Pacific has five or six more named storms
7%
Pacific has three or four more named storms
1%
Pacific has one or two more named storms
0%
tie or Atlantic has more named storms
0%
Question suspends in 1 week

Suspend date: Mon 30th Nov 6:59pm PST (1 week to go)

Initial likelihoods: Pacific has 7+ named storms or more: 15%, Pacific has five or six more named storms: 30%, Pacific has three or four more named storms: 30%, Pacific has one or two more named storms: 15%, tie or Atlantic has more named storms: 10%

Action history:

Created Fri 3rd Jul 6:12am PST by onedave[Power User]

Suspend date: Mon 30th Nov 6:59pm PST (1 week to go) details

 

Predictions (75)

1 week ago
onedave[Power User] predicted Pacific has 7+ named storms or more (H$20 at 92%)
5 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted Pacific has 7+ named storms or more (H$3,000 at 85%)
5 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted Pacific has five or six more named storms (H$200 at 6%)
5 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted Pacific has 7+ named storms or more (H$4,000 at 82%)
5 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted Pacific has 7+ named storms or more (H$100 at 63%)

Comments (28)

  1 onedave[Power User]
A named storm is a hurricane or tropical storm.
posted 20 weeks ago
So far, it's 3:0 Pacific!
posted 19 weeks ago
  3 sqlman[Admin]
Just to clarify: this market refers to only eastern Pacific storms and not both eastern and western Pacific storms, correct?
posted 19 weeks ago
  4 onedave[Power User]
right. We are only referring to eastern Pacific storms.
posted 19 weeks ago
with Dolores we are up to E Pacific 4:Atlantic 0
looks like Pacific will be a winner by a wide margin...
posted 18 weeks ago
  6 sqlman[Admin]
The east Pacific normally wins anyway, so it's not a surprise. The east Pacific hurricane season tends to both start and peak earlier than the north Atlantic, so there's always a chance at catching up, but that's not likely; the east Pacific has an average of 16.3 named storms each year as opposed to the north Atlantic's 10.6.
posted 18 weeks ago
yeah, I read that too, but you should not give away all the secrets!
posted 18 weeks ago
  8 sqlman[Admin]
Just doin' my part... ;-)
posted 18 weeks ago
Well, that makes the score 6 : 0 Pacific. Atlantic has a lot of catching up to do!
posted 15 weeks ago
  10 sqlman[Admin]
The guys at Colorado State University released their updated 2009 Atlantic season forecast today (http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2009/aug2009/aug2009.pdf), in which they still call for 10 named storms and 4 hurricanes (with two of those Category 3 or stronger). That's fewer than their June forecast, which itself called for fewer than their April forecast did. The El Niņo is doing its thing, and is expected to get even stronger in September, so even that 10 may be a stretch. (By comparsion, remember that since the start of the recent active hurricane period in 1995, there's been an average 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year.)
posted 15 weeks ago
  11 frogchop
Has anyone ever wondered how on earth a university in Colorado has become the hurricane forecasting center of the universe? Sure seems like an odd place to research hurricanes. I wonder how much snow storm forecasting research they do at Florida State University??? ;-)
posted 15 weeks ago
Good point, froggy. In any case, I have never been convinced that these forecasts are any more accurate than a monkey trowing darts at random numbers. Which is why it probably doesn't matter that there are precious few hurricanes in Colorado :-)
posted 15 weeks ago
  13 onedave[Power User]
Pacific 7-3 after Guillermo and Claudette.
posted 13 weeks ago
  14 frogchop
Pacific 9, atlantic 3 with Ignacio & Claudette.
posted 12 weeks ago
Current tally: Pacific 10 : Atlantic 4 and it looks like Pacific may pick up one more soon. Atlantic remains quiet as Danny dissipates.
posted 12 weeks ago
Here we go, Pacific 11: Atlantic 4....
posted 11 weeks ago
With wimpy Erica, we are 11:5 in favor of Pacific
posted 11 weeks ago
Linda and Fred make it 12 : 6. Pacific still up by five.....
posted 10 weeks ago
My namesake Marty made it 13:6. Forgive my math in the previous post.
E Pacific is up by 7...
posted 8 weeks ago
Well, Nora makes it 14 to 6, Pacific now leads by 8....
Atlantic could still close the gap with a late surge, but it is getting late.
posted 8 weeks ago
OK, Grace makes it 14 : 7. Pacific still up by 7, but there is another strong wave with potential for development...
posted 6 weeks ago
  22 onedave[Power User]
You missed Olaf. The score is 15-7 Pacific.
posted 6 weeks ago
So I did. Apologies - these pesky little storms are hard to keep up when you have a day job...
So it is indeed 15-7, but it looks like it is about to become 15 : 8. That would get things back to Pacific by a converted touchdown.
posted 6 weeks ago
  24 onedave[Power User]
Henri has formed. 15-8.
posted 6 weeks ago
OK, Patricia gets us to 16 : 8. E Pacific back on top by 8.
It should be mentioned, however, that the Atlantic season is longer and it is not too unusual to have storms forming in November or even December, so this one is not over yet!
posted 5 weeks ago
TD 20-E has just formed off the coast of Mexico.....
posted 5 weeks ago
OK, happy birthday, Rick
that makes the score 17 to 8, EP by 9!
posted 5 weeks ago
  28 onedave[Power User]
Ida makes it EP 17-9
posted 1 week ago

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