How many US banks will fail through the remainder of July?

Settled as The worst is yet to come (11 or more fail)

This can be settled early since as of Friday afternoon, we have exceeded the final option as 12 additional banks have closed in Julty since the start of this question. This gives us a total, thus far, of 20 banks for the month.

Settlement is based on the earliest reports, which are shortly after 6 PM EDT on Friday July 24.

"NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- State regulators shut down seven regional banks Friday, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said, bringing the total number of banks to fail in the United States to 64 this year."

http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/24/news/companies/bank_failure/?postversion=2009072418
First Published: July 24, 2009: 6:12 PM ET

Background:

Background: On July 2, 2009 the FDIC swept into seven banks across the country and placed them into receivership (shut them down). That brings the total number of bank closures for 2009 up to 51 and the year is barely half over. At the start of the year the FDIC reported that nationally there were over 300 troubled banks so there may be a long road ahead... or the increase in individual savings may bail them out and the FDIC just wanted a long weekend to clean up the mess.

Do you think this was a one-time move to close out a month's worth of banks in a single weekend or is the worst yet to come? Remember, you're betting on how many more failures for the remainder of the month, not the total including the seven already mentioned.

A good reference for more information on bank closures is here: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=102384657

Settlement details:http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html
Question to be suspended at noon eastern time on Friday, July 30, 2009. Market to be settled on Monday, August 3, 2009 based on the closures July 3, 2009-July 31, 2009.

Forecast history %

That's it, no more for the month

15%

Well, it's almost over, just some tidying up (1-3)

10%

Ooops, we missed a few (4-6)

11%

We still have a problem (7-10)

The worst is yet to come (11 or more fail)

56%

Settled as The worst is yet to come (11 or more fail) on Mon 27th Jul 2009 2:03pm PST

Activity: H$59,290
Predictions: 76
Comments: 3

Suspend date: Fri 31st Jul 2009 9am PST
Settlement date: Mon 27th Jul 2009 2:03pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 24th Jul 2009 2:15pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: That's it, no more for the month : 20%, Well, it's almost over, just some tidying up (1-3): 25%, Ooops, we missed a few (4-6): 30%, We still have a problem (7-10): 15%, The worst is yet to come (11 or more fail): 10%

Action history:

Created Fri 3rd Jul 2009 9:46am PST by

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,716,817)

Settlement requested Mon 27th Jul 2009 11:10am PST by

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,716,817)

: Twelve (12) have closed so far this month since the market started. This can settle at 11+.

Suspended Mon 27th Jul 2009 1:49pm PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: checking data

Settled as 'The worst is yet to come (11 or more fail)' Mon 27th Jul 2009 2:03pm PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: This can be settled early since as of Friday afternoon, we have exceeded the final option as 12 additional banks have closed in Julty since the start of this question. This gives us a total, thus far, of 20 banks for the month.

Settlement is based on the earliest reports, which are shortly after 6 PM EDT on Friday July 24.

"NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- State regulators shut down seven regional banks Friday, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said, bringing the total number of banks to fail in the United States to 64 this year."

http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/24/news/companies/bank_failure/?postversion=2009072418
First Published: July 24, 2009: 6:12 PM ET

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