Created Fri 3rd Jul 12:36pm PST by 
tarpash
tarpash 
Will Sarah Palin or her family be involved in a scandal by July 31?
Settled as No
Background: CATEGORY EDITOR CLARIFICATION This market is being allowed to run. In order for a Yes settlement there must be clear and overwhelming reporting of a scandal. I am going to allow this market which will hopefully not run into many problems, but be forewarned that this market is not for the weary, this market will be settled soley at my discretion, therefore I will do my best to provide clarifications as necessary. Please flag market for most immediate responses.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/03/AR2009070301738.html
Sarah Palin stunned the political world Friday July 3rd when she announced she would resign as Governor of Alaska on July 26th. Commentators immediately suggested that this is a precursor to another Palin bombshell.
This is a question which requires considerable interpretation from destry (cat ed of politics), but I'm sure he's up to it. Will Sarah Palin or her family be known to be involved in any type of scandal by July 31st? This scandal can be, but is not limited to, infidelity on Sarah's or Todd's part, bribery, murder, drug use, etc. If it is revealed that any of the Palins are involved in something less than sparkling by July 31, then this market settles as Yes.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/03/AR2009070301738.html
Sarah Palin stunned the political world Friday July 3rd when she announced she would resign as Governor of Alaska on July 26th. Commentators immediately suggested that this is a precursor to another Palin bombshell.
This is a question which requires considerable interpretation from destry (cat ed of politics), but I'm sure he's up to it. Will Sarah Palin or her family be known to be involved in any type of scandal by July 31st? This scandal can be, but is not limited to, infidelity on Sarah's or Todd's part, bribery, murder, drug use, etc. If it is revealed that any of the Palins are involved in something less than sparkling by July 31, then this market settles as Yes.
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Forecast history %
| Yes |
| |||
| No |
|
Settled as No on Tue 4th Aug 9:33pm PST
- Activity: H$117,388 |
- Predictions: 147 |
Comments: 14
Suspend date: Tue 28th Jul 6pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 4th Aug 9:33pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 28th Jul 6pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 45%
Action history:
Created Fri 3rd Jul 12:36pm PST by tarpash
tarpash
Changed Description Fri 3rd Jul 1:19pm PST by 
destry![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: show details
destry: show details ... <center><b>CATEGORY EDITOR CLARIFICATION</B></CENTER>This market is being allowed to run. In order for a Yes settlement there must be clear and overwhelming reporting of a scandal (event likely to call into question ability to be governor). I am going to allow this market which will hopefully not run into many problems, but be forewarned that this market is not for the weary, this market will be settled soley at my discretion, therefore I will do my best to provide clarifications as necessary. Please flag market for most immediate responses.<br/> <br/> <a href="http://www.washingtonpost. ... /07/03/AR2009070301738.html</a> <><br/> <br/> Sarah Palin stunned ... precursor to another Palin bombshell. <.<br/> <br/> This is a
Changed Description Fri 3rd Jul 1:20pm PST by destry: show details
destry: show details ... overwhelming reporting of a scandal (event likely to call into question ability to be governor). . I am going to allow
Changed Description Sat 4th Jul 8:11pm PST by destry: show details
destry: show details ... center><b>CATEGORY EDITOR CLARIFICATION</Bb></CENTERcenter>This market is being allowed
Suspended Tue 28th Jul 6pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Tue 4th Aug 9:26pm PST by 
dieseldog
: only news that i can find is below. don't know if thats meets your definition of a scandal.
Ethics Report Investigating Sarah Palin Ethics Defense Strategy Discovers Problem
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2009/07/ethics_report_investigating_sa.html
dieseldog: only news that i can find is below. don't know if thats meets your definition of a scandal.
Ethics Report Investigating Sarah Palin Ethics Defense Strategy Discovers Problem
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2009/07/ethics_report_investigating_sa.html
Suspend date: Tue 28th Jul 6pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 4th Aug 9:33pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 28th Jul 6pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (147)
predicted No (H$1,800 at 96%)
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predicted No (H$200 at 96%)
predicted No (H$3,000 at 95%)
predicted Yes (H$20 at 6%)Comments (14)
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Maybe both apply..
This market is being allowed to run. In order for a Yes settlement there must be clear and overwhelming reporting of a scandal. I am going to allow this market which will hopefully not run into many problems, but be forewarned that this market is not for the weary, this market will be settled soley at my discretion, therefore I will do my best to provide clarifications as necessary...."
WOW! I don't remember ever seeing SPORTS QUESTIONS with fine print like this...
maybe that's because within the result of a sports match it is quite simple to determine the outcome for settling a hubdub question. but what manifests a "scandal" large or serious enough to be considered determine the outcome of this question? what should be the attributes of that "scandal"?
that's one possibility. but it should be mentioned in the settlement details, instead of "MSM" - as being part of the question.
And not the everyday run-of-the-mill pre-existing "a daughter who is an unmarried teenage mother and drug using would-be mother-in-law" type scandal, as Tuff noted...
Geesh...I can't wait for them to be the First Family...
BUT WILL SHE KISS THE POPE'S RING??
Ethics Report Investigating Sarah Palin Ethics Defense Strategy Discovers Problem
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2009/07/ethics_report_investigating_sa.html
From the article:
"The analysis is preliminary and doesn't constitute any kind of legal ruling. In fact, on her Twitter, Palin called an AP account an "inaccurate story." But if it does go through, we see this as a win-win for her."
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