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What will be the active rotary rig count in the US on 10-July-2009

Settled as less than 928

The count declined by 12 rigs to close out the week at 916

Background:

Background: up, Up, UP!!!

How many active rotary rigs will be reported by Baker Hughes this week?

Every week, Baker Hughes publishes the active rotary rig count for the United States on this page:

http://investor.shareholder.com/bhi/rig_counts/rc_index.cfm

A lot of information is available on that site. Some key points:

"A rotary rig rotates the drill pipe from surface to drill a new well (or sidetracking an existing one) to explore for, develop and produce oil or natural gas."

"Rig count trends are governed by oil company exploration and development spending, which in turn is influenced by the current and expected price of oil and natural gas. Rig counts therefore reflect the strength and stability of energy prices."

Been dropping for months now, here are the last few results:

08-May: 928 - Down 17
15-May: 918 - Down 10
22-May: 900 - Down 18
29-May: 899 - Down 1
05-Jun: 887 - Down 12
12-Jun: 876 - Down 11
19-Jun: 899 - UP 23
26-Jun: 917 - UP 18
03-Jul: 928 - UP 11

Settlement details:As reported here:
http://investor.shareholder.com/bhi/rig_counts/rc_index.cfm

 
Forecast history %
less than 928
16%
928 to 940
41%
more than 940
43%
Settled as less than 928 on Tue 14th Jul 5:18am PST

Suspend date: Thu 9th Jul 12:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 14th Jul 5:18am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 9th Jul 12:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: less than 928: 20%, 928 to 940: 40%, more than 940: 40%

Action history:

Created Fri 3rd Jul 2:20pm PST by gtown[Power User]
Suspended Thu 9th Jul 12:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sat 11th Jul 10:53am PST by gtown[Power User]: less than 928

916, down 12
http://investor.shareholder.com/bhi/rig_counts/rc_index.cfm
Settled as 'less than 928' Tue 14th Jul 5:18am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: The count declined by 12 rigs to close out the week at 916

Suspend date: Thu 9th Jul 12:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 14th Jul 5:18am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 9th Jul 12:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (6)

19 weeks ago
ssc69 predicted 928 to 940 (H$100 at 40%)
20 weeks ago
gtown[Power User] predicted 928 to 940 (H$100 at 39%)
20 weeks ago
jonica predicted 928 to 940 (H$20 at 40%)

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gtown[Power User]
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