Created Fri 3rd Jul 3:20pm PST by

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,691,295)

Will there be another crash of an Airbus A310, A330 or A340 before September 30, 2009?

Settled as No, no more accidents by settlement

Didn't happen...

Background:

Background: The National Transportation Safety Board, which is helping French authorities determine if speed sensors were a factor in the crash of an Air France A330 this month, said it is also investigating incidents involving a TAM Airlines flight from Miami to Sao Paulo in May and a Northwest Airlines flight between Hong Kong and Tokyo on Tuesday.

Both flights experienced cockpit readings showing a loss of primary speed and altitude information, the safety board said in a statement.

http://www.postchronicle.com/news/breakingnews/article_212241059.shtml

The cause does not need to be of unknown origin for this market to settle as Yes. A third option of Planes Grounded is also available and if at anytime there is a grounding of more than 100 planes (A310, 330, 340), this market will settle as Planes Grounded.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Yes, another one crashes

No, no more accidents by settlement

99%

Planes grounded as a precaution

Settled as No, no more accidents by settlement on Tue 6th Oct 5:20pm PST

Activity: H$46,456
Predictions: 75
Comments: 2

Suspend date: Wed 30th Sep 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 6th Oct 5:20pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 30th Sep 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes, another one crashes: 10%, No, no more accidents by settlement: 80%, Planes grounded as a precaution: 10%

Action history:

Created Fri 3rd Jul 3:20pm PST by

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,691,295)

Suspended Wed 30th Sep 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Sat 3rd Oct 10:41am PST by

mvguy

: It didn't happen.

Settled as 'No, no more accidents by settlement' Tue 6th Oct 5:20pm PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: Didn't happen...

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Predictions (75)

7 weeks ago

undercontrol Level 10, Genius (H$10,374)

predicted Planes grounded as a precaution (H$3 at 0%)

7 weeks ago

undercontrol Level 10, Genius (H$10,374)

predicted Yes, another one crashes (H$5 at 0%)

7 weeks ago

undercontrol Level 10, Genius (H$10,374)

predicted No, no more accidents by settlement (H$50 at 99%)

7 weeks ago

andyblard7 Level 6, Player (H$2,285)

predicted Yes, another one crashes (H$20 at 0%)

8 weeks ago

keyeshoveden [Power User]

predicted No, no more accidents by settlement (H$10,000 at 98%)

Comments (2)

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$436,530)

Here's a link to an article that claims the composite (plastic) vertical tail is a weak point of the Airbus:
http://www1.investorvillage.com/mbthread.asp?mb=3666&tid=7516690&showall=1

posted 20 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,691,295)

Nothing to see here, nope, it didn't break up: http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/07/02/air.france.report/index.html

Geez, no bias in their opinion. Not only is the vast majority of Air France's fleet made up of Airbus planes, but Airbus is also a French company.

posted 19 weeks ago