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When will a new nuclear arms treaty be ratified between the U.S. and Russia?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
in July
0%
in August
0%
in September
0%
in October
0%
in November
0%
in December
1%
no treaty in 2009
98%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: in July : 15%, in August: 10%, in September: 10%, in October: 10%, in November: 10%, in December: 15%, no treaty in 2009: 30%

Action history:

Created Sun 5th Jul 1:07pm PST by crowe
Suspended Mon 6th Jul 7:38am PST by kruijs[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Mon 6th Jul 7:38am PST by kruijs[Power User]: that's fast:
"Obama, Medvedeve agree to pursue nuclear reduction"

President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev struck a preliminary deal Monday to reduce their nations' stockpiles of nuclear warheads to as few as 1,500 each, pointing their arsenals toward the lowest levels of any U.S.-Russia arms control agreement.

The document signed by the two leaders at a Moscow summit, Obama's first in Russia, is meant as a guide for negotiators as the nations work toward a replacement pact for the START arms control agreement that expires in December. The joint understanding completed by Obama and Medvedev, signed after about three hours of talks at the Kremlin, also commits the new treaty to lower longer-range missiles for delivering nuclear bombs to between 500 and 1,100.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5isOFwdbq0tsqatW6vJpkDRTI1gMgD999151O0 (market suspended)
Settlement requested Mon 6th Jul 10:24pm PST by kruijs[Power User]: please do not settle since the treaty has only been announced but not actually *ratified*!

sorry for the premature suspending :-)
Unsuspended Tue 7th Jul 4:02am PST by sqlman[Admin]: Hasn't been ratified yet...

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (25)

3 weeks ago
Erik predicted no treaty in 2009 (H$10,000 at 95%)
5 weeks ago
bethanypackham6 predicted no treaty in 2009 (H$50 at 88%)
5 weeks ago
craig814 predicted no treaty in 2009 (H$100 at 88%)
5 weeks ago
byerswr predicted no treaty in 2009 (H$100 at 87%)
12 weeks ago
Erik predicted no treaty in 2009 (H$5,000 at 72%)

Comments (7)

  1 kruijs[Power User]
Obama, Medvedeve agree to pursue nuclear reduction

President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev struck a preliminary deal Monday to reduce their nations' stockpiles of nuclear warheads to as few as 1,500 each, pointing their arsenals toward the lowest levels of any U.S.-Russia arms control agreement.

The document signed by the two leaders at a Moscow summit, Obama's first in Russia, is meant as a guide for negotiators as the nations work toward a replacement pact for the START arms control agreement that expires in December. The joint understanding completed by Obama and Medvedev, signed after about three hours of talks at the Kremlin, also commits the new treaty to lower longer-range missiles for delivering nuclear bombs to between 500 and 1,100.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5isOFwdbq0tsqatW6vJpkDRTI1gMgD999151O0
posted 19 weeks ago
  2 crowe
Indeed, that was fast!
posted 19 weeks ago
  3 dieseldog
thats is not a ratified treaty in fact its not even a treaty. its a frame work to start a treaty. in the US treaties are ratified by the senate. to my knowledge the senate hasn't voted on any treaty nor this paper that was signed.

from the settlement request - is meant as a guide for negotiators as the nations work toward a replacement pact for the START arms control agreement that expires in December.
posted 19 weeks ago
  4 frogchop
Oddly, once again, I agree with DD. Ratification only occurs after senate approval.
posted 19 weeks ago
  5 kruijs[Power User]
okay,
I guess dieseldog is right.

and I guess this will not be considered a Spitzer clause case?
posted 19 weeks ago
  6 dieseldog
here you go again trying to make something out of nothing. there is no mention of a treaty any where and your asking about the spitzer clause. all tho i'm sure you'll find a way to interpret is meant as a guide for negotiators as meaning thats a treaty. rotflol
posted 19 weeks ago
  7 kruijs[Power User]
well, here you go again.

what did you not understand as I wrote: "I guess dieseldog is right."?

rotflmao
posted 19 weeks ago

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