Created Thu 9th Jul 3:13am PST by

How many Hubdubbers will achieve a quarterly gain of 50,000 or more in Q3 2009?

Settled as 56 to 60

Background: There are a lot of "rich" Hubdubbers, but not everybody is playing or winning. Last quarter, 3 players gained H$1,000,000, 13 players gained H$250,000 and about 50 gained H$50,000. There should be more this quarter, as there are now more high net worth hubdubbers and we all know that the rich get richer. Currently, there are already 6 who have gained over H$100,000 and 10 who are H$50,000 richer since June 30. We are only a bit more than a week into the 3rd quarter!
The question is: how many will have gained at least H$50,000 in the third quarter of 09? The market will suspend one week prior.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. In case no mainstream source reports Hubdub gains, we will go with the Quarterly Gain Leaderboard as of 06:00 on October 1st: http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=3

Forecast history %

40 or less stuck in neutral

41 to 45

46 to 50

51 to 55

56 to 60

68%

61 to 65

25%

66 to 70

71 to 75

76 or more HD rocks!

Settled as 56 to 60 on Thu 1st Oct 2:30am PST

Activity: H$25,459
Predictions: 60
Comments: 4

Suspend date: Thu 24th Sep 12:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 1st Oct 2:30am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 24th Sep 12:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 40 or less stuck in neutral: 6%, 41 to 45: 8%, 46 to 50: 12%, 51 to 55: 15%, 56 to 60: 18%, 61 to 65: 15%, 66 to 70: 12%, 71 to 75: 8%, 76 or more HD rocks!: 6%

Action history:

Created Thu 9th Jul 3:13am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Suspended Thu 24th Sep 12:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Thu 1st Oct 2:08am PST by

hfl13

: Please settle with internal Q3 stats.

Settlement requested Thu 1st Oct 2:19am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

: This one was closer. I cannot be sure if we were at 60 or below or 61 and above. I do believe you have access to the old quarterly board. For future reference, how do you suggest I set the settlement time, so it is not the wee hours of the morning? Thanks for your help,
M

Settled as '56 to 60' Thu 1st Oct 2:30am PST by