What will happen first?

The balloonist


A woman in a hot air balloon realized she was lost. She lowered her altitude and spotted a man in a boat below. She shouted to him, "Excuse me, can you help me? I promised a friend I would meet him an hour ago, but I don't know where I am."

The man consulted his portable GPS and replied, "You're in a hot air balloon, approximately 30 feet above a ground elevation of 2,346 feet above sea level. You are at 31 degrees, 14.97 minutes north latitude and 100 degrees, 49.09 minutes west longitude.

"She rolled her eyes and said, "You must be a Republican."

"I am," replied the man. "How did you know?"

"Well," answered the balloonist, "everything you told me is technically correct. But I have no idea what to do with your information, and I'm still lost. Frankly, you've not been much help to me."

The man smiled and responded, "You must be an Obama Democrat."

"I am," replied the balloonist. "How did you know?"

"Well," said the man, "you don't know where you are or where you are going. You've risen to where you are, due to a large quantity of hot air. You made a promise you have no idea how to keep, and you expect me to solve your problem. You're in exactly the same position you were in before we met, but somehow, now it's my fault."

Rasmussen is showing Obama at:
49% Total Approve
51% Total Disapprove
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

Funny. Rasmussen is the poll I trust least. Pretty popular with Fox news ain't it?

I wouldn't know, riot.
I was simply scanning the polls at Realclear politics.

Regardless of your opinion, Rasmussen does indeed meet the requirements -
'Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.'

'Obama Job Approval Below 50% for First Time'

http://news.yahoo.com/s/rasmussen/20090724/pl_rasmussen/obamaapproval20090724_1

Gallup... Gallup... NOT Rasmussen

con2 - funny Rasmussen was the most accurate in the last election. must be all that rBST and rBGH they take. :O)

http://www.hubdub.com/m17489/Which_Poll_will_be_the_most_accurate

BTW..read comment 168 from link below con2. it will inspire you..hehe.

http://www.hubdub.com/e/Topic/What_do_you_really_think_of_Sarah_Palin_85

"Will Obama's approval rating drop below 50% on Gallup or will the Dow go below 7000. What will come first?"

froggy, this is a very strange market. Every time I put some money on neither or DJIA dropping below 7k, the value goes to zero the next day. Keep getting fantastic odds here. I'd think rogerkni, who's been betting the dow will drop below 5k, for sure below 6k would be all over this market....
I guess this is where all the Obama haters are venting their spleen, so to speak....

Interesting indeed. I'm a sucker for a 50:1 bet, no less a 90:1 bet, so I could drop $20 here and $50 there all day long on a market like this. Worst case, I loose a couple hundred bucks. Best case, I buy myself that shiny, new HD Lexus with all my $HD. ;-)

more of those 200:1 or more odds....
Somebody must be throwing big bucks on this market, or else there is something insiduous going on...

I'm also enjoying the odds on this market quite a bit. 25 to gain 44000...I suppose i'll take that chance :)

That's for sure. Surely, it's not 100% until it happens.

Woo hoo!!! 51% Only 2% left to drop!

Gallup Daily: Obama Job Approval
http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

Still very happy to take $100 to win $65000. Admittedly, much more likely to lose $100.

it's always darkest just before dawn.
rebounded up to 53% today.
this is going to be sweet - I stand to win $165,000 or lose $300
better odds than a lottery ticket, that's for sure - worth the entertainment value, if nothing else.
look out, orlin, here I come :-)

I don't really understand why this continues to jump to 100% and people are placing bets on 98%-99% odds. I mean, Obama is probably going to win this market, but as it stands now even a $10,000 wager only pays approx $100. There seems to be so many better spots to hoard your money for an entire year, or even a month or two.

It's more likely that one individual has $40-60k tied up in this market and it's driving their net worth up to have it close to 100%. Every time the market drops 2%, his worth drops $10k, thus, to keep his/her numbers up, they just dump more money in, as they have so much money, it really doesn't matter. It will eventually pay off, probably in the next three months, but in the meantime, I'm hoping on a wing and a prayer for a Dow 7k...

I don't know if I'm putting up prayers for a dow 7k, as my HD balance would be of much less concern than my portfolio balance at that point. However, a neither wouldn't be bad. :)

Woo hoo!!! 50% Only 1% left to drop!

Gallup Daily: Obama Job Approval
http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

@fof: must be like Chinese water torture: so close, so many times and still not there. I feel your pain. In the meantime, I am enjoying these very attractive odds. Somebody is overplaying their hand. It is not likely, but the odds are better than 500:1 that Obama's ratings stay above 49%
@phil: I am with you. I don't much cheer for Dow 7k, that would not be much fun. I keep hoping the doomer par excelance, rogerkni finds this market, he's been betting on the Dow to drop below 6k on other markets. In this game, you don't need the event to actually happen, you need enough people betting on your side to make a profit......

yeah, ive enjoyed the cash in option on this. It doesn't take much increase to really bank a profit on this question. I've noticed that this market is really volatile though. It can be at 6-7% and with one cash-in its right back to 0%.

Woo hoo!!! up to 53%. There is a lid @ 50%!
f-o-f, don't you see? There is a liberal plot to never report approval figures below % - that would be politically damaging. So, keep forking over the big bucks, I'll be glad to help Barrack re-distribute your wealth....

Hmmm, up to 54%. I have a Huge upside on this question, if that liberal plot succeeds :-)
(PS, that should read "below 50%" in the message above: #24)

Oh, did I mention that the Dow is nearing 10k? Neither is looking pretty good.....

So, now Obama is up to 56%. N-E-I-T-H-E-R is gonna win!!!! (well, OK, I know there is a lot of time left)
Somebody stands to lose big bucks on this. There must be one or two players with more than 100k riding on this. For me, worst case scenario, I loose a couple of thousand. Best case, I win a couple of hundred thousand. I love those 0.3% odds

The Nobel Prize committee is helping us out on this question, tuff

yes, pitch, they are and we are thankful.
50 % is holding up every time the support level is approached, it bounces right up.
Must be torture for the Obama-haters.
Funny how profitable it can be when people wager based on emotion rather than reason....

Gallup is a an lie, try pollster its at 52.5 idiots.