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Will Tai Shan move to China during 2009?

Background: On July 9, the giant panda Tai Shan his fourth birthday at the National Zoo in Washington, DC. The zoo's staff made him a special three-tier cake made of water, bamboo, shredded beets and beet juice.

Sadly, Tai Shan's fourth birthday may be his last at the zoo. All giant panda born in the US are property of the Chinese government and must be sent to China when they are old enough.

Tai Shan's move was originally scheduled for 2007, but a two-year extension was reached. The US and China are in preliminary negotiations to further extend Tai Shan's stay in the US.

Additional information:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/unleashed/2009/07/giant-panda-tai-shan-celebrates-his-birthday-at-the-national-zoo.html
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/US/07/09/dc.panda.birthday/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tai_Shan_(panda)

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
44%
No
56%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Sun 12th Jul 5:04am PST by onedave[Power User]

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (16)

13 weeks ago
mikeo7b3 predicted Yes (H$148 at 44%)
16 weeks ago
galad predicted No (H$50 at 56%)
18 weeks ago
excontender predicted No (H$20 at 56%)
18 weeks ago
bout3fitty predicted No (H$500 at 56%)
18 weeks ago
pita_soup predicted No (H$300 at 56%)

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