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Which of these things will happen to Joaquín Guzmán Loera (first)?
Background: Joaquín Guzmán Loera is a Mexican drug lord, who heads an international drug trafficking organization referred to as the Sinaloa Cartel. He became Mexico's top drug kingpin in 2003 after the arrest of his rival Osiel Cardenas of the Gulf Cartel. Guzmán is wanted by the governments of Mexico, U.S.A. and by the INTERPOL; so far he has evaded operations to capture him.
Note: if more than one outcome is true, the question will be settled as the FIRST outcome to be true chronologically.
Note: if more than one outcome is true, the question will be settled as the FIRST outcome to be true chronologically.
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Forecast history %
| Guzmán is captured & held by Mexican government |
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| Guzmán is captured & held by another government |
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| Guzmán is killed or dies without being captured |
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| Guzmán surrenders and turns himself in |
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| Still assumed to be at large by suspend date |
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| Other outcome not covered in this list |
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Question suspends in 33 weeks
- Activity: H$2,934 |
- Predictions: 8 |
Comments: 2
Suspend date: Thu 15th Jul 2010 11:59pm PST (33 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Guzmán is captured & held by Mexican government: 35%, Guzmán is captured & held by another government: 10%, Guzmán is killed or dies without being captured: 15%, Guzmán surrenders and turns himself in: 5%, Still assumed to be at large by suspend date: 25%, Other outcome not covered in this list: 10%
Action history:
Suspend date: Thu 15th Jul 2010 11:59pm PST (33 weeks to go) details 
Get widget!Predictions (8)
letmewinplees
predicted Guzmán is captured & held by Mexican government (H$100 at 30%)
tuff_sledding
predicted Guzmán is killed or dies without being captured (H$100 at 13%)
candelario
predicted Still assumed to be at large by suspend date (H$100 at 38%)Comments (2)
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Among the more notable new billionaires are Mexican Joaquín Guzmán Loera, one of the biggest suppliers of cocaine to the U.S
http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSN11524498
MEXICO CITY, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Mexican troops have found what may be a hide-out of the country's No. 1 drug lord at a giant methamphetamine lab hidden in the northern Sierra among cabins equipped with caviar face cream and escort catalogues.
Mexican media published photos of a complex of 22 secluded mountain cabins, camouflaged to be invisible from the air. One was outfitted with a king-sized bed, luxury clothes, satellite television, pirated movies and high-speed Internet.
The daily Reforma said army officials suspected the well-equipped cabin was used by top fugitive Joaquin "Shorty" Guzman, leader of the powerful Sinaloa cartel, or his associate Ismael Zambada, to oversee operations at the largest synthetic drug lab ever found in Mexico.
[More at the link...]
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