Created Tue 21st Jul 8:22am PST by

jasonkarl Level 5, Predictor (H$1,551)

Before the end of 2009, will Obama make a JFK style announcement promising to get to Mars by 2020

Background: John F. Kennedy made an historic announcement on May 25, 1961.
He committed the US to landing a man on the Moon before the end of the 60s.
Will Barrack H. Obama make a similar speech, promising a manned flight to Mars before 2020?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Yes

94%

Question suspends in 5 weeks

Activity: H$56,620
Predictions: 71
Comments: 3

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 55%

Action history:

Created Tue 21st Jul 8:22am PST by

jasonkarl Level 5, Predictor (H$1,551)

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Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

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Predictions (71)

8 weeks ago

brea2pointoh Level 1, Newbie (H$976)

predicted No (H$15 at 91%)

9 weeks ago

mork

predicted No (H$4,444 at 90%)

9 weeks ago

mona

predicted No (H$100 at 89%)

9 weeks ago

arnos

predicted No (H$500 at 81%)

9 weeks ago

cjacobs Level 4, Whiz-kid (H$1,227)

predicted No (H$100 at 81%)

Comments (3)

spyder Level 15, Seer (H$439,676)

I presume that if an announcement is made to go to Mars by 2021 or later, this question settles as No, but if the date is 2020 or earlier it settles as Yes (since getting there by 2019 means also getting there by 2020). No announcement would mean a No settlement. Agreed?

posted 16 weeks ago

jasonkarl Level 5, Predictor (H$1,551)

By 2020 means by 31st DEC 2019. I see your point though.
I figured that an announcerment would be made stating the desire to get there by the end of the decade, thus mirroring the JFK one. I also assumed that he would use the symmetrical and alluringly sci-fi date 2020, to enhance the buzz.
By the way after talking to a few scienceheads I duplicated this question changing the parameters slightly. cf. http://www.hubdub.com/m47997/Before_the_end_of_2010_will_Obama_make_a_JFK_style_announcement_promising_to_get_to_Mars_by_2020

posted 15 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

Yes, we've had some confusion with the use of the word "by"... its now been set that 'by' means before. So this market will says that the plans must be for 2019 or before.

posted 15 weeks ago