Created Thu 23rd Jul 8:31am PST by 
photochico
photochico 
Will hubdub create a way to 'short' an option in a multi-choice question by the end of 2009?
Background: It's been discussed before, but will hubdub make it available?
Instead of picking all but the answer you believe will be incorrect, you would be able to short one answer.
Example:
DJIA will close by the end of 2009:
A. at or below 6,000 (15%)
B. between 6,000 and 7,000 (15%)
C. between 7,000 and 8,000 (15%)
D. between 8,000 and 9,000 (20%)
E. between 9,000 and 10,000 (20%)
F. over 10,000 (15%)
If you are fairly certain the DOW will end the year over 6,000, you could short answer A. This wager would have the same effect as spreading your wager amount of all the other answers, but take less time and effort. According to the percentages, you would be wagering at an 85% level (100%-15%).
Instead of picking all but the answer you believe will be incorrect, you would be able to short one answer.
Example:
DJIA will close by the end of 2009:
A. at or below 6,000 (15%)
B. between 6,000 and 7,000 (15%)
C. between 7,000 and 8,000 (15%)
D. between 8,000 and 9,000 (20%)
E. between 9,000 and 10,000 (20%)
F. over 10,000 (15%)
If you are fairly certain the DOW will end the year over 6,000, you could short answer A. This wager would have the same effect as spreading your wager amount of all the other answers, but take less time and effort. According to the percentages, you would be wagering at an 85% level (100%-15%).
Settlement details:As reported by hubdub.
Forecast history %
| Yes |
| ||||
| No |
|
Question suspends in 5 weeks
- Activity: H$15,519 |
- Predictions: 21 |
Comments: 4
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 10%
Action history:
Created Thu 23rd Jul 8:31am PST by photochico
photochico
Changed Description Thu 23rd Jul 11:43am PST by 
jenniandboys![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: show details
jenniandboys: show details ... will hubdub make it available? <?<br/> <br/> Instead of picking ... able to short one answer. <.<br/> <br/> Example: <:<br/> DJIA will close by the end of 2009: <:<br/> A. at or below 6,000 (15%) <%)<br/> B. between 6,000 ... ,000 and 8,000 (15%) <%)<br/> D. between 8,000 and 9,000 (20%) <%)<br/> E. between 9,000 and 10,000 (20%) <%)<br/> F. over 10,000 (15%) <%)<br/> <br/> If you are
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details 
Get widget!Predictions (21)
tuff_sledding![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted No (H$800 at 84%)
pheng
predicted No (H$100 at 84%)
cookietime
predicted No (H$250 at 88%)Comments (4)
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So, for example, if you bet "-$100" on some option and that option loses, you lose -$100, which means that you gain $100.
I agree with photochico, this would be a really good idea.
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