Created Mon 27th Jul 2009 2:10am PST by

imantsdimants Level 16, Oracle (H$533,495)

When's the next 500 point drop on the DOW?

Settled as Not by 1/1/2010

No big drops (500 points or more) for the Dow for 2009...

Background:

Background: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aZH0EAJbxH7w

U.S. Stocks Rise as Dow Posts Best Two-Week Gain in Nine Years
By Whitney Kisling

July 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, completing the steepest two-week rally for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 2000, as companies beat profit estimates and an increase in home resales signaled an economic recovery may be underway.

“This isn’t a bear market rally,” Hugh Johnson, who manages more than $1.5 billion as chairman of Albany, New York-based Johnson Illington, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “It’s often confirmed by things such as the index of leading economic indicators, which has been up three months in a row and telling us that we’re headed towards a recovery.”

CatEd Notation: We're talking about a one-day drop of 500 or more points from the previous day's closing results. If this appears to be happening, the CatEd may temporarily suspend the question up to an hour earlier than that day's closing time, and will reopen if it does not drop the required amount.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Q3 2009

Q4 2009

Not by 1/1/2010

100%

Settled as Not by 1/1/2010 on Fri 1st Jan 7:02am PST

Activity: H$454,637
Predictions: 1806
Comments: 20

Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 2009 9:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 1st Jan 7:02am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 24th Dec 2009 9:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Q3 2009: 10%, Q4 2009: 10%, Not by 1/1/2010: 80%

Action history:

Created Mon 27th Jul 2009 2:10am PST by

imantsdimants Level 16, Oracle (H$533,495)

Suspended Mon 27th Jul 2009 4:53am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: checking on settlement conditions

Changed Description Mon 27th Jul 2009 6:15am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: show details

... ’re headed towards a recovery.”.” <br/> <br/> <b>CatEd Notation:</b> We're talking about a one-day drop of 500 or more points from the previous day's closing results. If this appears to be happening, the CatEd may temporarily suspend the question up to an hour earlier than that day's closing time, and will reopen if it does not drop the required amount.

Changed Suspend date Mon 27th Jul 2009 6:15am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: was: "2009-12-31 21:59:00"

Unsuspended Mon 27th Jul 2009 6:16am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: clarification made regarding settlement

Suspended Thu 24th Dec 2009 9:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Thu 31st Dec 2009 1:46pm PST by

randburg Level 20, Hubdub God (H$5,862,289)

: Not this year! We escaped the remainder of 2009. Officially closed.

Settlement requested Fri 1st Jan 5:21am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

: the doomers were wrong. the Dow did not tank the rest of the year. winner is Not by 1/1/2010
thanks

Settled as 'Not by 1/1/2010' Fri 1st Jan 7:02am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: No big drops (500 points or more) for the Dow for 2009...

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Predictions (1806)

12 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted Not by 1/1/2010 (H$10,000 at 99%)

12 weeks ago

wahsfrog Level 15, Seer (H$251,681)

predicted Q4 2009 (H$20 at 2%)

13 weeks ago

valornhonor Level 8, Super-Pro (H$5,760)

predicted Q4 2009 (H$99 at 2%)

15 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted Not by 1/1/2010 (H$1,000 at 94%)

15 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted Not by 1/1/2010 (H$1,100 at 96%)

Comments (20)

bayoubear [Admin]

I'm assuming that this refers to a one-day drop of 500 or more points, but i'm checking with the creator just to be sure...

posted 33 weeks ago

imantsdimants Level 16, Oracle (H$533,495)

Yes, a one-day drop of 500 points in DJIA.

posted 33 weeks ago

rogerkni Level 14, Prophet (H$191,028)

I'm going to create a similar question, but for 300 points.

posted 32 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

roger, can you provide a link to it, please?

posted 31 weeks ago

imantsdimants Level 16, Oracle (H$533,495)

www.hubdub.com/m49680/Whens_the_Next_300Point_oneday_Drop_or_Rise_on_the_Dow

posted 31 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

I wonder who is the doomer betting big on a 500 point crash? That worked last year - I don't think folks will be stampeded like that again. Those who ran for the exits likely missed the bulk of the recovery, as invariably happens.

posted 28 weeks ago

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,723,974)

I get the 500 point crash in the 4th quarter (October is always such a happy month), but there's only 13 days left in Q3, so I don't get why it jumped to 34% today. That's a lot of pessimism wrapped up in a very short time frame.

posted 27 weeks ago

pics4d Level 15, Seer (H$402,041)

it looks like someone cashed out on a "not by 1/1/10" wager since the other two both went up

posted 27 weeks ago

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,817,219)

The more Dow is up the more likely is a 300 or even 500 variation on it. I agree that the markets are nowhere near the jumpy reactions of last year. But it looks like they are not calm either.

posted 27 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Lots of money on the sidelines that missed the big rally, are looking to get in on a pullback. I expect this to mitigate any sudden drops. There just is not the kind of hysteria we had last year. We made it past the 9-11 anniversary without incident, I was a bit worried about some nasty terror attack that could spook the markets. We may well see a gradual decline of 10 or even 20% in October, but I don't see a crash and I have been putting my HD money where my mouth is, as they say....

posted 27 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

hmm, very large bets on a 500 point drop in the next 2 1/2 weeks. Very interesting.
Thanks for your generosity, you've been giving me some very attractive entry points. This will be big, come the end of Sept and even bigger at the start of the NY..

posted 27 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

keep up the good work, who-ever you are...

posted 26 weeks ago

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,723,974)

Regarding comment #11: Maybe some Hubdubber's plans to cash in just got thwarted: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090917/ap_on_re_us/us_nyc_terror

posted 26 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

I see, froggy. Sounds like you should alert the FBI that there is a suspect among us :-)

posted 26 weeks ago

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,817,219)

I put some money yesterday on Q4 2009. The thought behind is that the bigger DOW is the more likely a 500 point drop, the greed is good return 4:1 H$ invested. My exposure to this market is very low, about 5k, I lose such amounts on daily basis.
From Q4 I might make my bets public again although being invisible pays good (started from 900k 4 months ago).

As to suspects, I am always one of the usual suspects.

posted 26 weeks ago

imantsdimants Level 16, Oracle (H$533,495)

http://news.aol.com/article/terror-arrest-of-najibullah-zazi-sparks/677941

DENVER (Sept. 22, 2009)
Counterterrorism officials have issued security bulletins to police around the nation about terrorists' desire to attack stadiums, entertainment complexes and hotels ...
an al-Qaida training manual specifically lists "blasting and destroying the places of amusement, immorality, and sin... and attacking vital economic centers" as desired targets.

posted 25 weeks ago

imantsdimants Level 16, Oracle (H$533,495)

www.reuters.com/article/wtUSInvestingNews/idUSTRE5910F120091002

LONDON (Reuters) - Equity markets across the globe tumbled as doubts grew about the pace of economic recovery and the week's major data on U.S. jobs loomed large.
European shares hit a four-week low, following steep losses in Asia and on Wall Street overnight.

posted 24 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Yawn.....
Hang Seng tanks, Europe briefly tanks, then recovers when the US markets don't follow.
Yea of little faith.......

posted 24 weeks ago

imantsdimants Level 16, Oracle (H$533,495)

www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-industrials-drop-24985-points-to-971273-2009-10-30
Oct. 30, 2009, 4:08 p.m. EDT ·
Dow industrials drop 249.85 points to 9,712.73

posted 20 weeks ago

imantsdimants Level 16, Oracle (H$533,495)

www.marketwatch.com/story/vix-surges-as-fright-returns-to-stocks-2009-10-30?siteid=

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- An options index known as Wall Street's fear gauge surged Friday to a nearly four-month high, as a fresh round of worries about the sustainability of recent months' rally surfaced.
The CBOE's Volatility Index gained 24% to 30.69 by the exchange's close, its highest closing level since July 8.

For the index, it was the biggest percentage gain since late 2008, near the peak of the financial crisis.

posted 20 weeks ago