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When's the next 500 point drop on the DOW?

Settled as Not by 1/1/2010

No big drops (500 points or more) for the Dow for 2009...

Background:

Background: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aZH0EAJbxH7w

U.S. Stocks Rise as Dow Posts Best Two-Week Gain in Nine Years
By Whitney Kisling

July 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, completing the steepest two-week rally for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 2000, as companies beat profit estimates and an increase in home resales signaled an economic recovery may be underway.

“This isn’t a bear market rally,” Hugh Johnson, who manages more than $1.5 billion as chairman of Albany, New York-based Johnson Illington, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “It’s often confirmed by things such as the index of leading economic indicators, which has been up three months in a row and telling us that we’re headed towards a recovery.”

CatEd Notation: We're talking about a one-day drop of 500 or more points from the previous day's closing results. If this appears to be happening, the CatEd may temporarily suspend the question up to an hour earlier than that day's closing time, and will reopen if it does not drop the required amount.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Q3 2009
0%
Q4 2009
0%
Not by 1/1/2010
100%
Settled as Not by 1/1/2010 on Fri 1st Jan 7:02am PST

Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 2009 9:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 1st Jan 7:02am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 24th Dec 2009 9:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Q3 2009: 10%, Q4 2009: 10%, Not by 1/1/2010: 80%

Action history:

Created Mon 27th Jul 2009 2:10am PST by imantsdimants
Suspended Mon 27th Jul 2009 4:53am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: checking on settlement conditions
Changed Suspend date Mon 27th Jul 2009 6:15am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2009-12-31 21:59:00"
Unsuspended Mon 27th Jul 2009 6:16am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: clarification made regarding settlement
Suspended Thu 24th Dec 2009 9:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 31st Dec 2009 1:46pm PST by randburg: Not this year! We escaped the remainder of 2009. Officially closed.
Settlement requested Fri 1st Jan 5:21am PST by tuff_sledding[Power User]: the doomers were wrong. the Dow did not tank the rest of the year. winner is Not by 1/1/2010
thanks
Settled as 'Not by 1/1/2010' Fri 1st Jan 7:02am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: No big drops (500 points or more) for the Dow for 2009...

Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 2009 9:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 1st Jan 7:02am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 24th Dec 2009 9:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (1806)

12 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted Not by 1/1/2010 (H$10,000 at 99%)
12 weeks ago
wahsfrog predicted Q4 2009 (H$20 at 2%)
13 weeks ago
valornhonor predicted Q4 2009 (H$99 at 2%)
15 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted Not by 1/1/2010 (H$1,000 at 94%)
15 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted Not by 1/1/2010 (H$1,100 at 96%)

Comments (20)

  1 bayoubear[Admin]
I'm assuming that this refers to a one-day drop of 500 or more points, but i'm checking with the creator just to be sure...
posted 33 weeks ago
Yes, a one-day drop of 500 points in DJIA.
posted 33 weeks ago
  3 rogerkni
I'm going to create a similar question, but for 300 points.
posted 32 weeks ago
roger, can you provide a link to it, please?
posted 31 weeks ago
I wonder who is the doomer betting big on a 500 point crash? That worked last year - I don't think folks will be stampeded like that again. Those who ran for the exits likely missed the bulk of the recovery, as invariably happens.
posted 28 weeks ago
  7 frogchop
I get the 500 point crash in the 4th quarter (October is always such a happy month), but there's only 13 days left in Q3, so I don't get why it jumped to 34% today. That's a lot of pessimism wrapped up in a very short time frame.
posted 27 weeks ago
  8 pics4d
it looks like someone cashed out on a "not by 1/1/10" wager since the other two both went up
posted 27 weeks ago
  9 bgrigore
The more Dow is up the more likely is a 300 or even 500 variation on it. I agree that the markets are nowhere near the jumpy reactions of last year. But it looks like they are not calm either.
posted 27 weeks ago
Lots of money on the sidelines that missed the big rally, are looking to get in on a pullback. I expect this to mitigate any sudden drops. There just is not the kind of hysteria we had last year. We made it past the 9-11 anniversary without incident, I was a bit worried about some nasty terror attack that could spook the markets. We may well see a gradual decline of 10 or even 20% in October, but I don't see a crash and I have been putting my HD money where my mouth is, as they say....
posted 27 weeks ago
hmm, very large bets on a 500 point drop in the next 2 1/2 weeks. Very interesting.
Thanks for your generosity, you've been giving me some very attractive entry points. This will be big, come the end of Sept and even bigger at the start of the NY..
posted 27 weeks ago
keep up the good work, who-ever you are...
posted 26 weeks ago
  13 frogchop
Regarding comment #11: Maybe some Hubdubber's plans to cash in just got thwarted: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090917/ap_on_re_us/us_nyc_terror
posted 26 weeks ago
I see, froggy. Sounds like you should alert the FBI that there is a suspect among us :-)
posted 26 weeks ago
  15 bgrigore
I put some money yesterday on Q4 2009. The thought behind is that the bigger DOW is the more likely a 500 point drop, the greed is good return 4:1 H$ invested. My exposure to this market is very low, about 5k, I lose such amounts on daily basis.
From Q4 I might make my bets public again although being invisible pays good (started from 900k 4 months ago).

As to suspects, I am always one of the usual suspects.
posted 26 weeks ago
http://news.aol.com/article/terror-arrest-of-najibullah-zazi-sparks/677941

DENVER (Sept. 22, 2009)
Counterterrorism officials have issued security bulletins to police around the nation about terrorists' desire to attack stadiums, entertainment complexes and hotels ...
an al-Qaida training manual specifically lists "blasting and destroying the places of amusement, immorality, and sin... and attacking vital economic centers" as desired targets.
posted 25 weeks ago
www.reuters.com/article/wtUSInvestingNews/idUSTRE5910F120091002

LONDON (Reuters) - Equity markets across the globe tumbled as doubts grew about the pace of economic recovery and the week's major data on U.S. jobs loomed large.
European shares hit a four-week low, following steep losses in Asia and on Wall Street overnight.
posted 24 weeks ago
Yawn.....
Hang Seng tanks, Europe briefly tanks, then recovers when the US markets don't follow.
Yea of little faith.......
posted 24 weeks ago
www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-industrials-drop-24985-points-to-971273-2009-10-30
Oct. 30, 2009, 4:08 p.m. EDT ·
Dow industrials drop 249.85 points to 9,712.73
posted 20 weeks ago
www.marketwatch.com/story/vix-surges-as-fright-returns-to-stocks-2009-10-30?siteid=

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- An options index known as Wall Street's fear gauge surged Friday to a nearly four-month high, as a fresh round of worries about the sustainability of recent months' rally surfaced.
The CBOE's Volatility Index gained 24% to 30.69 by the exchange's close, its highest closing level since July 8.

For the index, it was the biggest percentage gain since late 2008, near the peak of the financial crisis.
posted 20 weeks ago

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