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Will Chloe Smith keep Norwich North?

Background: On the 23rd of July Conservative Chloe Smith took the Norwich North constituency in a by-election triggered by the resignation of the sitting Labour MP - she won a majority of 7348, representing a 16.5% swing, to become the country's youngest MP. Can she hold onto her seat at the next general election?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
66%
No
34%
Question suspends in 27 weeks

Suspend date: Mon 31st May 2010 3:59pm PST (27 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 65%

Action history:

Created Mon 27th Jul 3:25am PST by ojw15

Suspend date: Mon 31st May 2010 3:59pm PST (27 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (2)

16 weeks ago
ieujam1 predicted No (H$500 at 35%)
16 weeks ago
youbet predicted Yes (H$500 at 65%)

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