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Will Chloe Smith keep Norwich North?

Background: On the 23rd of July Conservative Chloe Smith took the Norwich North constituency in a by-election triggered by the resignation of the sitting Labour MP - she won a majority of 7348, representing a 16.5% swing, to become the country's youngest MP. Can she hold onto her seat at the next general election?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
68%
No
32%
Question suspends in 10 weeks

Suspend date: Mon 31st May 3:59pm PST (10 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 65%

Action history:

Created Mon 27th Jul 2009 3:25am PST by ojw15

Suspend date: Mon 31st May 3:59pm PST (10 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (7)

5 weeks ago
pabloc predicted Yes (H$222 at 69%)
6 weeks ago
shutupandeatyourcoal predicted Yes (H$100 at 69%)
7 weeks ago
chinadoll predicted Yes (H$20 at 69%)
11 weeks ago
pabloc predicted Yes (H$666 at 66%)
33 weeks ago
ieujam1 predicted No (H$500 at 35%)

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