Created Mon 27th Jul 11:21am PST by

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,696,406)

What state will have the most bank failures in August 2009?

Settled as Any two or more states tie

From my count, I see four states (AL, AZ, FL, & GA) with two failures each..looks like a tie to me...my count also shows 15 for the month....

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html

Background:

Background: As of July 27, 2009 the FDIC has gone into 63 banks across the country and placed them into recievership (closed them down). At the start of the year the FDIC reported that nationally there were over 300 troubled banks. However, not all states are created equal when it comes to banking problems. Three states, Illinois, California and Georgia, represent over 45% of all bank failures in the US so far this year. I've set the odds accordingly, relative to who's had the most failures in the past, but will the trend continue?

Which state will have the most failures in the month of August 2009?

A good reference for more information on bank closures is here: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=102384657

Settlement details:http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html
Question to be suspended at noon eastern time on Friday, August 28, 2009. Market to be settled on Tuesday, September 1, 2009 based on the closures August 1, 2009-August 31, 2009.

Forecast history %

Georgia

California

Illinois

Florida

Kansas

North Carolina

Nevada

Oregon

Any two or more states tie

64%

Other state, other outcome, no banks fail, etc.

15%

Settled as Any two or more states tie on Sat 29th Aug 4:16am PST

Activity: H$49,477
Predictions: 224
Comments: 4

Suspend date: Fri 28th Aug 8am PST
Settlement date: Sat 29th Aug 4:16am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 28th Aug 8am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Georgia: 30%, California: 23%, Illinois: 20%, Florida: 5%, Kansas: 2%, North Carolina: 2%, Nevada: 2%, Oregon: 2%, Any two or more states tie: 7%, Other state, other outcome, no banks fail, etc.: 7%

Action history:

Created Mon 27th Jul 11:21am PST by

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,696,406)

Changed Settlement info Tue 28th Jul 3:17am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: show details

... noon eastern time on Friday, ~~July~~August 28, 2009. Market to be

Suspended Fri 28th Aug 8am PST : Suspend date reached

Settled as 'Any two or more states tie' Sat 29th Aug 4:16am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: From my count, I see four states (AL, AZ, FL, & GA) with two failures each..looks like a tie to me...my count also shows 15 for the month....

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html

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Predictions (224)

12 weeks ago

mayank Level 7, Pro (H$3,855)

predicted Any two or more states tie (H$58 at 63%)

12 weeks ago

collieafc Level 11, Legend (H$18,507)

predicted Any two or more states tie (H$50 at 63%)

13 weeks ago

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$425,035)

predicted Florida (H$200 at 6%)

13 weeks ago

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$425,035)

predicted Florida (H$100 at 2%)

13 weeks ago

zargonddg Level 14, Prophet (H$200,142)

predicted Georgia (H$250 at 5%)

Comments (4)

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$425,035)

Map of failed banks:

http://portalseven.com/finance/Failed_Banks_Map_2009.jsp

posted 14 weeks ago

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$425,035)

Failures Aug 21: 2 in GA (now tied with FL), 1 in AL, 1 in TX:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXFBqolG0LWc

posted 13 weeks ago

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,700,606)

12 failed banks in August so far:
Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Arizona - each with two
Texas, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Oregon - each with one
Time to place your bets.

posted 13 weeks ago

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$425,035)

Three failures at the end of August, in MN, MD & CA. Winner is "Tie"

posted 12 weeks ago