Created Wed 5th Aug 2009 2:37pm PST by

onedave [Power User]

How many years between the last space shuttle mission and US's next human space mission launch?

Background: The US currently plans to retire its space shuttle in 2010. NASA's next human space mission is expected to use the Ares I crew launch vehicle and the Orion crew capsule.

According to NASA, the Ares I carries an initial operational capability (IOC) of March 2015. However, the Aerospace Corporation's Gary Pulliam expects that budget cuts, technical issues and a proposal to delay the International Space Station's deorbit could delay the Ares I flight until 2019.

Also, a panel headed by former astronaut Sally Ride has proposed flying shuttle missions until 2012 or 2014.

The clock on this market will start at landing (wheel stop) of the final space shuttle mission and stop at launch of the next human spaceflight mission after that.

Additional information:
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=space&id=news/Gap080309.xml&headline=Nine-year U.S. Spaceflight Gap Seen

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

five years or less

53%

between five years, one second and six years

23%

between six years, one second and eight years

15%

more than eight years

Question suspends in 5 years

Activity: H$7,646
Predictions: 37
Comments: 1

Suspend date: Sat 5th Mar 2016 11:59pm PST (5 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: five years or less: 10%, between five years, one second and six years: 40%, between six years, one second and eight years: 35%, more than eight years: 15%

Action history:

Created Wed 5th Aug 2009 2:37pm PST by

onedave [Power User]

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Suspend date: Sat 5th Mar 2016 11:59pm PST (5 years to go) details

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Predictions (37)

3 weeks ago

mikeo7b3 Level 10, Genius (H$10,145)

predicted between five years, one second and six years (H$100 at 20%)

4 weeks ago

eremgumas Level 4, Whiz-kid (H$1,284)

predicted five years or less (H$20 at 58%)

4 weeks ago

shojun Level 14, Prophet (H$143,262)

predicted five years or less (H$500 at 57%)

6 weeks ago

modigs2000 Level 13, Psychic (H$51,288)

predicted five years or less (H$100 at 58%)

6 weeks ago

modigs2000 Level 13, Psychic (H$51,288)

predicted five years or less (H$300 at 51%)

Comments (1)

mdad8200 Level 12, Guru (H$35,176)

Is the question, when will NASA return to space, or when will a US entity return man to space? SpaceX, Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic all have attainable options to launch humans to space by 2010 to 2014. NASA could, with an extra $3 billion per year, get Ares human rated and launched by 2016, at the earliest. If both the Shuttle and Station continue past original expiration date, 2019 is likely the best NASA can do.

posted 21 weeks ago