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Human spaceflight: In which order will the US achieve these landings?

Background: In 2004, George W. Bush announced the US's current space policy. The policy calls for a crewed mission to the Moon by 2020 with later missions to Mars and beyond.

On September 28, 2007, Michael Griffin stated that NASA's plan was to land a man on Mars by 2037. In 2009, a panel subcommittee studied three possibilities: 1) shoot the Moon, 2) bypass the Moon and land on Mars, and 3) a flexible path. The flexible path would bypass the Moon and Mars and travel to Lagrange points, asteroids or the moons of Mars. The panel will present its recommendations to Barack Obama during August.

Additional information:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/31/science/space/31nasa.html?_r=1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. Question will settle when the second landing occurs. If hubdub, the internet or the Earth cease to exist before the second landing occurs, this market will be voided.

 
Forecast history %
Moon, Mars, other landing
58%
Mars, Moon, other landing
2%
Moon, other landing, Mars
3%
Mars, other landing, Moon
4%
other landing, Mars, Moon
2%
other landing, Moon, Mars
30%
Question suspends in 9 years

Suspend date: Tue 6th Aug 2019 11:59pm PST (9 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Moon, Mars, other landing: 70%, Mars, Moon, other landing: 4%, Moon, other landing, Mars: 4%, Mars, other landing, Moon: 10%, other landing, Mars, Moon: 4%, other landing, Moon, Mars: 8%

Action history:

Created Thu 6th Aug 3:16pm PST by onedave[Power User]

Suspend date: Tue 6th Aug 2019 11:59pm PST (9 years to go) details

 

Predictions (18)

4 weeks ago
syne predicted Moon, Mars, other landing (H$20 at 58%)
5 weeks ago
neopugg predicted Moon, other landing, Mars (H$20 at 3%)
12 weeks ago
neuronexmachina predicted other landing, Moon, Mars (H$500 at 26%)
12 weeks ago
neuronexmachina predicted other landing, Moon, Mars (H$1,000 at 12%)
14 weeks ago
galad predicted Moon, Mars, other landing (H$50 at 79%)

Comments (3)

  1 randburg
At the moment, we will do WELL to land the economy on earth...
posted 15 weeks ago
What about none of these get done in 10 years cause were wasting precious tax dollars fighting 2 wars 10,000 miles away?
posted 15 weeks ago
Foolish predictions... it will be Moon, Mars, other landing Moon, other landing, Mars at least.
posted 11 weeks ago

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