Created Fri 7th Aug 1:15am PST by

When will weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the USA drop below 500,000?

Background: In the week ending August 1, 2009, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 550,000, a decrease of 38,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 588,000.
Recent history (advance numbers):
July 25, 2009: 584,000
July 18, 2009: 554,000
July 11, 2009: 522,000
July 4, 2009 : 565,000
June 27, 2009: 614,000
June 20, 2009: 627,000
June 13, 2009: 608,000
June 6, 2009 : 605,000
May 30, 2009: 625,000
One year ago, the figure stood at 442,000.

The weekly claims have been way up there all fall, winter and spring. Summertime has brought some easing, but we seem stuck for now. There have been positive signs in the Economy, but mixed messages abound. The number of first-time claims has dropped more often than not in recent weeks. However, nobody in their right mind thinks the recession is over and we are home free. Will the decrease this weak signal the return of the welcome downward trend?

The question is: when will the weekly number (seasonally adjusted) reported by the US Labor department for the number of initial unemployment insurance claims first drop below 500,000? The numbers are usually reported Thursday morning @08.30 EDT.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm is the link to the Labor Department website.

Forecast history %

week of August 8 or 15

week of August 22 or 29

week of Sept 5 or 12

week of Sept 19 or 26

week of Oct 3 or 10

week of Oct 17 or 24

week of Oct 31 or Nov 7

week of Nov 14 or Nov 21

39%

week of Nov 28 to Dec 5

33%

week of Dec 12 or later/never

16%

Question suspends in 1 week

Activity: H$35,333
Predictions: 84
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Tue 1st Dec 7:59pm PST (1 week to go)

Initial likelihoods: week of August 8 or 15: 5%, week of August 22 or 29: 8%, week of Sept 5 or 12: 10%, week of Sept 19 or 26: 12%, week of Oct 3 or 10: 15%, week of Oct 17 or 24: 15%, week of Oct 31 or Nov 7: 12%, week of Nov 14 or Nov 21: 10%, week of Nov 28 to Dec 5: 8%, week of Dec 12 or later/never: 5%

Action history:

Created Fri 7th Aug 1:15am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

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