Created Mon 10th Aug 12:41pm PST by

meanderingsearcher Level 1, Newbie (H$14)

Will there be a 6.8 or greater earthquake before Sept. 7, 2009 ?

Settled as Yes

MAP 6.8 2009/08/28 01:51:20 -7.117 123.444 633.2 BANDA SEA
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009kwae.php

Background:

Background: ok so we started with a 6.2 and worked our way up 6.6 with all settling as "yes" (and the 6.6 only took 9 hours to happen)(and now the 6.7 took about 15 hrs to settle as yes) sooner or later the settlement will be a "no" is this the one?
i have increased the intial likelihood by 5%

Category Editor Clarification
The relevant time period for this question is after the creation of this market, which is after 10 August 2009.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source and/or http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php

Forecast history %

Yes

70%

30%

Settled as Yes on Fri 28th Aug 4:48pm PST

Activity: H$81,380
Predictions: 63
Comments: 2

Suspend date: Sun 6th Sep 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 28th Aug 4:48pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Mon 10th Aug 12:41pm PST by

meanderingsearcher Level 1, Newbie (H$14)

Settlement requested Tue 11th Aug 2:30am PST by

hfl13

: MAP 7.6 2009/08/10 19:55:39 14.013 92.923 33.1 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php

Changed Description Wed 12th Aug 3:09am PST by

tisha

: show details

... "no" is this the one~~? <~~? i have increased the intial likelihood by 5%% Category Editor Clarification The relevant time period for this question is after the creation of this market, which is after 10 August 2009.

Suspended Thu 27th Aug 8:53pm PST by

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,696,406)

: Suspended pending settlement

Settlement requested Thu 27th Aug 8:53pm PST by

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,696,406)

: MAP 6.8 2009/08/28 01:51:20 -7.117 123.444 633.2 BANDA SEA (market suspended)

Settled as 'Yes' Fri 28th Aug 4:48pm PST by

tisha

: MAP 6.8 2009/08/28 01:51:20 -7.117 123.444 633.2 BANDA SEA
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009kwae.php

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Suspend date: Sun 6th Sep 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 28th Aug 4:48pm PST details

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Predictions (63)

12 weeks ago

dlk26

predicted No (H$100 at 40%)

12 weeks ago

curly

predicted Yes (H$250 at 59%)

12 weeks ago

harkon Level 12, Guru (H$30,007)

predicted No (H$500 at 43%)

12 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,696,406)

predicted No (H$500 at 28%)

13 weeks ago

indie1977 Level 11, Legend (H$22,274)

predicted Yes (H$459 at 73%)

Comments (2)

buckeyetom Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,694,880)

The way the quakes have been increasing in frequency at the higher end of the Richter Scale I have to bet YES on these questions.

posted 14 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,696,406)

I'm torn on this one. There's no scientific evidence to support that the tectonic plates have weather-like patterns. While it's perfectly logical to look at the probability of another strong hurricane after you just saw one form in the gulf because of high sea surface temperatures and favorable wind patterns, I don't think the same applies to earthquakes... or at least that's what I'm betting on. ;-)

posted 14 weeks ago