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EPL: How much will Man U miss Ronaldo?

Background: Manchester United marched to victory as expected in the 2008-09 season, largely because of the efforts of the league's top goal scorer Cristiano Ronaldo. With Ronaldo at the front, the team lost only 4 games all season. Now that he's been traded away in the off season, how costly will this prove to be, based on total games lost?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Not at all - they lose 4 games or less
11%
A wee bit - they lose 5 or 6 games
38%
Quite a lot - they lose 7 or 8 games
42%
They fall apart completely & lose 9 or more games
9%
Question suspends in 22 weeks

Suspend date: Sat 1st May 2010 11:59pm PST (22 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Not at all - they lose 4 games or less: 20%, A wee bit - they lose 5 or 6 games: 40%, Quite a lot - they lose 7 or 8 games: 30%, They fall apart completely & lose 9 or more games: 10%

Action history:

Created Tue 11th Aug 10:13pm PST by cookietime

Suspend date: Sat 1st May 2010 11:59pm PST (22 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (27)

1 week ago
pabloc predicted A wee bit - they lose 5 or 6 games (H$122 at 37%)
1 week ago
aland predicted A wee bit - they lose 5 or 6 games (H$20 at 36%)
1 week ago
heavy_heart predicted Quite a lot - they lose 7 or 8 games (H$1,600 at 32%)
1 week ago
heavy_heart predicted A wee bit - they lose 5 or 6 games (H$1,600 at 40%)
1 week ago
casehandler predicted A wee bit - they lose 5 or 6 games (H$20 at 31%)

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