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Pirates in the English Channel?

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Suspend date reached

Background:

Background: A ship is missing in the English channel, as reviewed below.. here is a short synopsis. This question asks what is the main cause of this possible new piracy act, not off somalia, but in the English channel!
First the ship reported it had been attacked in waters off Sweden. Then it sailed with no apparent problems through one of the world's busiest shipping lanes. And then it disappeared. The Arctic Sea, a Maltese-flagged cargo ship, was supposed to make port in Algeria with its cargo of timber on Aug. 4. More than a week later, there's no sign of the ship or its Russian crew.

Piracy has exploded off the coast of lawless Somalia -- but could this be an almost unheard of case of sea banditry in European waters?

Place your bets, the clock is ticking. People are out searching now, so this could end , anytime soon..




http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/08/12/world/AP-EU-Britain-Missing-Ship.html

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Pirates have taken ship
1%
Ship swamped by a rogue wave or struck,sank
0%
Ship had breakdown got lost,communcation malfunct.
0%
Crew rebelled, took over command, mutiny
0%
commercial dispute between owner/crew, etc
0%
Unknown by settlement date, other , none of above
99%
Predictions on this question are temporarily suspended

Suspend date: Thu 12th Nov 11:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Pirates have taken ship: 20%, Ship swamped by a rogue wave or struck,sank: 5%, Ship had breakdown got lost,communcation malfunct.: 20%, Crew rebelled, took over command, mutiny: 15%, commercial dispute between owner/crew, etc: 15%, Unknown by settlement date, other , none of above : 25%

Action history:

Created Wed 12th Aug 11:48am PST by bigken1
Settlement requested Tue 18th Aug 2:29am PST by tkui: http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2009/08/20098188715166261.html
Settlement requested Tue 18th Aug 2:30am PST by tkui: http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2009/08/20098188715166261.html
Settlement requested Wed 16th Sep 12:01am PST by koester: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20090820/155866540.html
http://en.rian.ru/world/20090819/155857494.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/8206691.stm
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article6826093.ece


Eventhough I don't buy the story the russians are providing, we still have solid news sources explaining the ship has been hijacked and these news sources also confirm that pirates took the ship - whoever ordered them to do so for whatever reason - we can keep this open to find out a reason, but please dont come to the conclusion of "no news by settlement date" because the news are full of it.
Settlement requested Thu 15th Oct 4:09am PST by koester: I am sorry to bother you again with this question, but I am highly nervous about the possible settlement of this. I have written a comment on this question and I would really like some clarification from the category editor or whoever settles this in the end, as I do not think facts will be able to settle this question without a debate. I would really like to have my comment on the qestion answered if possible.
If we do not get further solid info on this case, what would this question settle on?
Settlement requested Thu 29th Oct 2:16pm PST by deelilley: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8290190.stm

Mystery Ship Returns to Malta:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8332977.stm
Suspended Thu 12th Nov 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Suspend date: Thu 12th Nov 11:59pm PST details

 

Predictions (207)

1 week ago
anifersgirl predicted Unknown by settlement date, other , none of above (H$1,061 at 93%)
2 weeks ago
fenricstoast predicted Unknown by settlement date, other , none of above (H$20 at 83%)
2 weeks ago
dingoh predicted commercial dispute between owner/crew, etc (H$20 at 1%)
2 weeks ago
stopcpdotcom predicted Unknown by settlement date, other , none of above (H$100 at 83%)
3 weeks ago
ajmitchell predicted Ship had breakdown got lost,communcation malfunct. (H$34 at 0%)

Comments (21)

  1 frogchop
Arrrgh!
posted 14 weeks ago
there are reports of the possibility of links to russian mafia involvment - what would this be settled as if this is the case?
posted 14 weeks ago
  3 bigken1
Chewwi,

Need to see how it plays out.... Basically, it is cat-eds JOB to settle things fairly.. Not sure what the clear definition is of a "pirate"... Good point / question though.. can you ask cat-ed?
I do not want to speak for anyone... I would think though, that if the "mafia" were crew members, it would likely settle as mutiny. If the mafia members were "outside" people (although they might have had an insider, it would be more like pirates).. Things are never black and white, unfortunately. Actually even "black and white" are often not black and white, with regard to human genetics too ..

Here, I think things are handled fairly. When I say here, I mean here.
posted 14 weeks ago
Its got all the earmarks of the Taliban as former VP Cheney would say.
posted 14 weeks ago
A missing ship with 15 Russian crew members on board has been spotted more than two weeks after it disappeared, unconfirmed reports say.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/europe/8202308.stm
The Arctic Sea had last been sighted in the Bay of Biscay on 30 July.

Reports citing local coastguards now suggest it has been seen some 400 nautical miles from the Cape Verde islands, off the coast of West Africa.

Russian navy ships have been searching for the 4,000-tonne Maltese-flagged vessel, which had been carrying timber.

Observers have suggested the ship was hijacked, possibly because of a Russian commercial dispute.

Following the reported sighting, a spokesman for the French defence ministry told the BBC that the Arctic Sea was thought to be in international waters.

The spokesman said his information came from the Cape Verde coastguard, who said the ship was outside their jurisdiction. He was unable to confirm the coastguard's report.

"It would seem that these acts, such as they have been reported, have nothing in common with 'traditional' acts of piracy or armed robbery at sea."
...
[More at the link...]
posted 14 weeks ago
France: missing cargo ship found near Cape Verde
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gE17YYHbGwpvQYilaHecDtSI_W2QD9A2PLS82
(AP) - 20 hours ago

PARIS — The French Defense Ministry says a Russian-manned cargo that vanished in the Atlantic last month has been found near Cape Verde.

Ministry spokesman Capt. Jerome Baroe says Cape Verde coast guards have confirmed the Arctic Sea was discovered Friday afternoon about 520 miles (840 kilometers) off the former Portuguese colony off the West African coast.

...
[More at the link...]
posted 13 weeks ago
BBC News: 'Ransom demand' for missing ship...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8203210.stm
posted 13 weeks ago
  10 sqlman[Admin]
The ship's been found, of course, but it's still very unclear what happened to it. There are a number of complicating factors, including the fact that the Russian military has admitted intentionally lying about the ship's whereabouts. So, for now, we'll leave this one open...
posted 13 weeks ago
  11 koester
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20090820/155866540.html
http://en.rian.ru/world/20090819/155857494.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/8206691.stm
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article6826093.ece

@ Sqlman: how much confirmation is needed to settle this? All official sources speak of hijacking and Piracy. Of course there are Rumours, but they have only been denied and I cant find 1 source that confirms them.
posted 9 weeks ago
  12 sqlman[Admin]
I've not seen a single credible settlement source state absolutely that the ship was actually hijacked. Many Western news sources use terms such as "alleged hijack" or "supposed hijack", and/or they put the word hijack in so-called irony quotes. The only sources stating it was hijacked seem to be Russian...and an increasing number of non-Russian sources are saying that it most definitely was not a hijacking.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/6170926/Arctic-Sea-was-carrying-missiles-to-Iran-new-report-suggests.html
http://www.thecrimson.com/article.aspx?ref=528931
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/stories/2009/09/10/1245c78faeac
...and so on, and so forth.

Since the market's set to run for another 8 weeks or so, I think we can safely let this run to see if any definitive news comes out. That is, if an outside investigation were to show that the ship had indeed been hijacked, we'd settle on option #1. If, OTOH, Russia were to admit that the hijacking story was bogus, or an investigation evidence proved that it was, this would settle on the final option.
posted 9 weeks ago
  13 koester
After a short period of thought I do have to agree with you in all mentioned points. Sorry for the premature settlement request.

How though would you settle if there were no FURTHER solid news until settlement date?

We can't really say there are "no news" on this subject and other doesnt really fit either, as we do have a lot of sources saying that the ship was indeed hijacked by pirates.
Dont forget that they have even arrested the alleged hijackers..

Of course you are right, we still have 8 weeks to go, I am just asking this question before I wager more money, I am already like 100+k deep, so I'd rather have some clarity on this before going all broke :-)
posted 9 weeks ago
  14 bernardo
Wow, cool story. Clearly it must have been like this: "However, if Israel had intended to intercept the cargo, why would they entrust such a sensitive task to a crew of motley Estonians with criminal records? One possible explanation is that the "interception" was actually carried out by a gang posing as Swedish policemen, who were reported to have briefly boarded the boat and interrogated the crew a couple of days before it was "hijacked". But in that case, what were the hijackers themselves after? " http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/estonia/6143608/Hijackers-of-Arctic-Sea-ghost-ship-in-murky-waters.html :)
And the Russian criminals were straw men who should get caught and will now get paid off by Mossad and won't face exceptionally long prison terms as probably Peres and Medvedev discussed in their meeting... Although pirates usually aren't employees of some agency, hijacking a ship still makes them pirates, right?
posted 9 weeks ago
  15 koester
Indeed, very interesting! I wonder what will come out.
posted 9 weeks ago
  16 ladylara
A Russian expert is being threatened for exposing this story- it gets even more interesting!
http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-world-europe/20090903/EU.Russia.Missing.Ship/
posted 7 weeks ago
At the risk of throwing gas on the fire... may I request examples of what might qualify for "etc." vs "other"?
posted 7 weeks ago
  18 koester
@ Ladylara - that piece of news is quite old and nothing new has come from it :-(
@ Valornhonor - heh, you should stop making sqlmans life hard. I am still wondering about the same thing... we might wanna look at the "definitions of the words "hijack" and "pirate"
posted 7 weeks ago
  19 koester
Just in case we do not get any further news than what we have right now, what would this question settle on?!
From the reactions of the Cat-Mod I am pretty uncertain what answer I should wager on now that I do not expect more news to come out. Sorry to bother you all with this, but I'd rather know it before the question settles, so I could be able to pull some money back out of this Q.
posted 5 weeks ago
  20 koester
Doesnt anyone want to get their hands dirty?

Whats ppls opinion on this?
posted 2 weeks ago
  21 koester
1. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8332977.stm
This is a piece of personal opinion of the writer - There is no evidence for anything else than piracy. The only thing the author does is to find out that other theories are too flawed to be believed

2.http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8332977.stm

The Maltese-flagged, Russian-crewed ship was purportedly attacked by pirates in Swedish waters in July.

A Russian warship located it off West Africa in August and arrested eight alleged hijackers.
The boldness of the hijacking and the elaborate effort to recapture it prompted speculation that the ship was carrying missiles for Iran or Syria, but Russian officials dismissed the claims.

Two correct statements: 1. The only thing officially declared (eventho it might not be confirmed by sceptics) is that the ship was hijacked (in my understanding people who hijack ships and take them somewhere else than their original destination are pirates, no matter if they wanted to hijack a ship full of wood or full of arms)
2. All other "information" out there is mere speculation and there is no SOLID reason to believe this was not a hijacking. Yes the whole thing feels kind of fishy but I (might be because of my wagers) wonder why this should be settled on "not known" or "other" if there is no hard evidence that this was something bigger than a normal pirate hijacking.
posted 1 week ago

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