Created Wed 12th Aug 5:26pm PST by
carnacthemagnificent

2009 Hurricanes - Who is windier? Boys or Girls?
Background: For every year, there is a pre-approved list of names for tropical storms and hurricanes. These lists have been generated by the National Hurricane Center since 1953. At first, the lists consisted of only female names; however, since 1979, the lists alternate between male and female.
Tropical storms are named alphabetically from the list in chronological order. Thus the first tropical storm of the year has a name that begins with "A" and the second is given the name that begins with "B." The lists contain names that begin from A to W, but exclude names that begin with a "Q" or "U." If the storm increases in intensity, it may be upgraded to "hurricane."
These are the names for 2009:
FEMALE NAMES
Ana
Claudette
Erika
Grace
Ida
Kate
Mindy
Odette
Rose
Teresa
Wanda
MALE NAMES
Bill
Danny
Fred
Henri
Joaquin
Larry
Nicholas
Peter
Sam
Victor
Will there be more hurricane force storms with female names or male names?
Tropical storms are named alphabetically from the list in chronological order. Thus the first tropical storm of the year has a name that begins with "A" and the second is given the name that begins with "B." The lists contain names that begin from A to W, but exclude names that begin with a "Q" or "U." If the storm increases in intensity, it may be upgraded to "hurricane."
These are the names for 2009:
FEMALE NAMES
Ana
Claudette
Erika
Grace
Ida
Kate
Mindy
Odette
Rose
Teresa
Wanda
MALE NAMES
Bill
Danny
Fred
Henri
Joaquin
Larry
Nicholas
Peter
Sam
Victor
Will there be more hurricane force storms with female names or male names?
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
| More hurricanes with female names |
| ||||
| More hurricanes with male names |
| ||||
| Other |
|
Question suspends in 5 weeks
- Activity: H$53,795 |
- Predictions: 73 |
Comments: 15
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: More hurricanes with female names: 45%, More hurricanes with male names: 45%, Other: 10%
Action history:
Created Wed 12th Aug 5:26pm PST by
carnacthemagnificent
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details
Predictions (73)
Comments (15)
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score: 10
score: 10
score: 10
score: 10
score: 10
The Washington Post 3 weeks ago

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If there is an odd number of hurricanes, there is 0% chance of "Other" (a tie) happening.
If there is an even number of hurricanes, these are the odds:
2 hurricanes : Female 1:4 / Other 2:4 / Male 1:4
4 hurricanes Female 5:16 / Other 6:16 / Male 5:16
6 hurricanes: Female 22:64 / 20:64 / 22:64
and so on. Gotta go to dinner. More on this later. Look up "Pascal's Triangle" to see how the odds progress. It's similar to a coin flipping experiment.
Did some crunching: things are remarkably--or unremarkably, depending on one's take--balanced. Over the past 20 complete season there have been 139 named hurricanes in the North Atlantic. 69 have had male names, for a mean yearly average of 3.45, while there have been 70 hurricanes with female names for a mean average of 3.5. There have been an equal number of male and female hurricanes five times; there have been more male names than female ones eight times, and more female ones seven times. Just about the only area of comparison that is statistically anomalous is in the number of highly destructive hurricanes. While there have been a handful of notable male-named storms over those years--Hugo, Ivan, Floyd, Charley, and Andrew--the females have been more vicious in number, with the likes of Opal, Fran, Bonnie, Frances, Jeanne, Dolly, Hanna, Paloma, and 2005's unholy trinity of Rita, Wilma, and Katrina.
1. another male = boys win
2. female name = tie (other)
there is 0 chance of girls winning with a total of 2 'canes
with 4 'canes, the odds still favor males, since one's already in the bag....
@sqlman: yea, I figured you were trying to sway the wagering, so I took the opportunity to quickly place my bet and THEN set the record straight :-)
Hurricane Bill (Cat 4)
Hurricane Fred (Cat 3)
Hurricane Ida (Cat 2)
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