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2009 Hurricanes - Who is windier? Boys or Girls?

Background: For every year, there is a pre-approved list of names for tropical storms and hurricanes. These lists have been generated by the National Hurricane Center since 1953. At first, the lists consisted of only female names; however, since 1979, the lists alternate between male and female.

Tropical storms are named alphabetically from the list in chronological order. Thus the first tropical storm of the year has a name that begins with "A" and the second is given the name that begins with "B." The lists contain names that begin from A to W, but exclude names that begin with a "Q" or "U." If the storm increases in intensity, it may be upgraded to "hurricane."

These are the names for 2009:

FEMALE NAMES
Ana
Claudette
Erika
Grace
Ida
Kate
Mindy
Odette
Rose
Teresa
Wanda

MALE NAMES
Bill
Danny
Fred
Henri
Joaquin
Larry
Nicholas
Peter
Sam
Victor

Will there be more hurricane force storms with female names or male names?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
More hurricanes with female names
2%
More hurricanes with male names
98%
Other
0%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: More hurricanes with female names: 45%, More hurricanes with male names: 45%, Other: 10%

Action history:

Created Wed 12th Aug 5:26pm PST by carnacthemagnificent

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (73)

2 days ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted More hurricanes with male names (H$8,000 at 97%)
1 week ago
heggie42 predicted More hurricanes with female names (H$50 at 4%)
2 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted More hurricanes with male names (H$3,000 at 92%)
5 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted More hurricanes with male names (H$800 at 89%)
6 weeks ago
chinadoll predicted More hurricanes with male names (H$65 at 85%)

Comments (15)

Let the sexist weather jokes commence!
posted 14 weeks ago
If there is an equal number of female and male named hurricanes, would that settle as other?
posted 14 weeks ago
Yup. "Other" includes ties.
posted 14 weeks ago
  4 coolkraft
great question
posted 14 weeks ago
  5 cici
We know the girls will be windier. We just have greater capacity to never stop yapping. Even if there was only 1 female hurricane, she would top 5 males.!!!! And that's the way it is.....
posted 14 weeks ago
  6 frogchop
Then again, I know plenty of guys that are just full of hot air.
posted 14 weeks ago
Oh my, I was thinking of a different kind of wind. Oops, n/m !! :_)
posted 13 weeks ago
  8 sqlman[Admin]
Well, just the fact that the year started with a female name means there's a 50% chance there'll be more female storms than there will be male ones, and a 50% chance there'll be an equal number of both. (And there is, of course, no chance there'll be more male-named storms than female ones.) That is, if there are an odd number of storms, there'll be one more female one than male; if there are an even number of storms, the male/female ratio will be balanced. Of course, this doesn't tell us which storms will become hurricanes, but a mathematician would still tell you the odds are better for girls...
posted 13 weeks ago
  9 cici
So far male is the winner, Ana, and Claudette wimped out, Bill is blowing strong.
posted 13 weeks ago
@squlman: your logic was correct at the outset of the season, but now that we are three names deep and the 2 females wimped out, the odds have clearly changed. The next storm is male and males are already up one!
posted 13 weeks ago
I just did a little back of the napkin calculation.

If there is an odd number of hurricanes, there is 0% chance of "Other" (a tie) happening.

If there is an even number of hurricanes, these are the odds:

2 hurricanes : Female 1:4 / Other 2:4 / Male 1:4
4 hurricanes Female 5:16 / Other 6:16 / Male 5:16
6 hurricanes: Female 22:64 / 20:64 / 22:64

and so on. Gotta go to dinner. More on this later. Look up "Pascal's Triangle" to see how the odds progress. It's similar to a coin flipping experiment.
posted 13 weeks ago
  12 sqlman[Admin]
C'mon, tuff; don't you recognize touting when you see it? ;-)

Did some crunching: things are remarkably--or unremarkably, depending on one's take--balanced. Over the past 20 complete season there have been 139 named hurricanes in the North Atlantic. 69 have had male names, for a mean yearly average of 3.45, while there have been 70 hurricanes with female names for a mean average of 3.5. There have been an equal number of male and female hurricanes five times; there have been more male names than female ones eight times, and more female ones seven times. Just about the only area of comparison that is statistically anomalous is in the number of highly destructive hurricanes. While there have been a handful of notable male-named storms over those years--Hugo, Ivan, Floyd, Charley, and Andrew--the females have been more vicious in number, with the likes of Opal, Fran, Bonnie, Frances, Jeanne, Dolly, Hanna, Paloma, and 2005's unholy trinity of Rita, Wilma, and Katrina.
posted 13 weeks ago
@ carnac: you are forgetting that we already have one with a male name. So, if the next one is the only other one, that is a total of 2, there are only two possibilities:
1. another male = boys win
2. female name = tie (other)
there is 0 chance of girls winning with a total of 2 'canes
with 4 'canes, the odds still favor males, since one's already in the bag....
@sqlman: yea, I figured you were trying to sway the wagering, so I took the opportunity to quickly place my bet and THEN set the record straight :-)
posted 13 weeks ago
My figurin' was based on the odds at the outset of the season. Of course, things are different if you spot yourself on male hurricane.
posted 13 weeks ago
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects

Hurricane Bill (Cat 4)
Hurricane Fred (Cat 3)

Hurricane Ida (Cat 2)
posted 8 hours ago

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