Created Thu 13th Aug 2009 8:11am PST by

carnacthemagnificent Level 14, Prophet (H$101,505)

2009 Hurricanes - Which hurricane will hit farthest north?

Settled as Other

None of this year's three North Atlantic hurricanes--Bill, Fred, or Ida--made landfall in the continental United States

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2009.asp

Background:

Background: Which hurricane hitting the continental United States will make landfall at the farthest point north before the December 1 settlement date? For this question, only storms of hurricane force reaching the continental US will be considered.

For example, if Ana and Bill are the only hurricanes to hit the continental US, and Ana makes landfall on the Florida mainland while Bill hits South Carolina, Bill wins.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Ana or Bill

Claudette or Danny

Erika or Fred

Grace or Henri

Ida or Joaquin

Kate or Larry

Mindy or Nicholas

Odette or Peter

Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, or Wanda

Other

95%

Settled as Other on Tue 8th Dec 2009 3:30am PST

Activity: H$107,884
Predictions: 181
Comments: 11

Suspend date: Tue 1st Dec 2009 7:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 8th Dec 2009 3:30am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 1st Dec 2009 7:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Ana or Bill: 11%, Claudette or Danny: 11%, Erika or Fred: 11%, Grace or Henri: 11%, Ida or Joaquin: 11%, Kate or Larry: 11%, Mindy or Nicholas: 11%, Odette or Peter: 11%, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, or Wanda: 7%, Other: 5%

Action history:

Created Thu 13th Aug 2009 8:11am PST by

carnacthemagnificent Level 14, Prophet (H$101,505)

Changed Question text Wed 26th Aug 2009 1:38am PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: show details

... Hurricanes - Which hurricane will hit ~~furthest~~farthest north?

Changed Description Wed 26th Aug 2009 1:38am PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: show details

... will make landfall at the ~~furthest~~farthest point north, before the December 1 settlement ... , only storms of hurricane force, reaching the continental US, will be considered. <br/> <br/> ... landfall on the Florida mainland ~~and~~while Bill hits South Carolina, Bill

Suspended Tue 1st Dec 2009 7:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Mon 7th Dec 2009 8:16am PST by

carnacthemagnificent Level 14, Prophet (H$101,505)

: Settle as "Other"

Settled as 'Other' Tue 8th Dec 2009 3:30am PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: None of this year's three North Atlantic hurricanes--Bill, Fred, or Ida--made landfall in the continental United States

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2009.asp

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Predictions (181)

16 weeks ago

dingoh Level 14, Prophet (H$110,330)

predicted Other (H$2 at 97%)

17 weeks ago

zargonddg Level 15, Seer (H$298,215)

predicted Other (H$5,000 at 94%)

17 weeks ago

stampee1 Level 12, Guru (H$29,569)

predicted Ida or Joaquin (H$100 at 8%)

18 weeks ago

stampee1 Level 12, Guru (H$29,569)

predicted Ida or Joaquin (H$100 at 15%)

18 weeks ago

stampee1 Level 12, Guru (H$29,569)

predicted Ida or Joaquin (H$629 at 7%)

Comments (11)

carnacthemagnificent Level 14, Prophet (H$101,505)

See the following link, for storm frequencies over the years:
http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/facts_and_figures/impacts/storms.cfm

I haven't seen any information about whether late season storms tend to travel further north. Anyone know anything about this?

posted 31 weeks ago

carnacthemagnificent Level 14, Prophet (H$101,505)

Note: if tropical storm Wanda is named, and there are any other storms, they will be named Tropical Storm Alpha, Tropical Storm Beta, etc.

posted 31 weeks ago

carnacthemagnificent Level 14, Prophet (H$101,505)

The forecast has Hurricane Bill (currently Cat 3) passing to the east of the US coast.

The definition of "landfall" is the point where the eye of the hurricane makes contact with the coast.

posted 30 weeks ago

indie1977 Level 12, Guru (H$26,992)

Bill hit the Canadian Coast (Newfoundland) does that count?

posted 29 weeks ago

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,726,211)

Newfoundland is not part of the United States, so I'd say no.

posted 29 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Interestingly, Ida is heading for the coast, somewhere between Louisiana and Florida. No other hurricane has made landfall. The only question is: will it still be a hurricane? If it is, it will be the winner of this question, barring another late 'cane....

posted 19 weeks ago

stampee1 Level 12, Guru (H$29,569)

a web site USAtoday, follows hurricans, from what i have read Ida has been the only hurrican to hit your coast, Also the site predicts a very quite year, and with only 2 weeks to go others will never hit the frame.

posted 18 weeks ago

stampee1 Level 12, Guru (H$29,569)

Question, to whom is in charge of this prediction, Ida was a hurrican but dropped down to tropical before hitting America, what i do not understand is this the only hurrican/tropical to hit land is Ida. And what does other mean in the prediction to me it means another names of hurricans, so why is everyone jummping on to that prediction ?, by the end date other will not come into contention. please could this be explained.

posted 17 weeks ago

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$731,161)

stampee1 - other would include no hurricane makes landfall.

posted 17 weeks ago

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$731,161)

***comment 9 is only my lowly opinon***

to get a difinte opinon you can flag the question or email the admin. i think sqlman is the admin. jim@hubdub.com is his email addy.

posted 17 weeks ago

stampee1 Level 12, Guru (H$29,569)

thank you for your replies, looks like i,v miss read the prediction OTHER ill lose 1000points, do not pass go and do not collect .

posted 17 weeks ago