Created Sun 16th Aug 2:54am PST by

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$440,716)

Will more than 175 US banks fail in 2009?

Background: With 77 banks now having failed 2/3 through the year and the weekly number of failures ramping up, it has become likely that more than 125 will fail this year. As a result, the previous question on this topic now has a 87% YES vote (on 125 or more failures) and has become nearly irrelevant. This new question resets the targets at 125 and 175.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source or
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html

Forecast history %

Fewer than 125 banks fail

125 through 175 banks fail

99%

176 through 225 banks fail

More than 225 banks fail

Question suspends in 4 weeks

Activity: H$126,205
Predictions: 167
Comments: 27

Suspend date: Tue 22nd Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Fewer than 125 banks fail: 10%, 125 through 175 banks fail: 65%, 176 through 225 banks fail: 20%, More than 225 banks fail: 5%

Action history:

Created Sun 16th Aug 2:54am PST by

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$440,716)

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Suspend date: Tue 22nd Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go) details

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Predictions (167)

6 days ago

tpcrt1 Level 1, Newbie (H$696)

predicted 176 through 225 banks fail (H$15 at 1%)

1 week ago

modigs2000 Level 6, Player (H$2,900)

predicted Fewer than 125 banks fail (H$5 at 0%)

2 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted 176 through 225 banks fail (H$100 at 6%)

2 weeks ago

hfl13

predicted 125 through 175 banks fail (H$1,111 at 95%)

2 weeks ago

charlesf Level 15, Seer (H$299,325)

predicted 125 through 175 banks fail (H$900 at 79%)

Comments (27)

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$440,716)

PS: "More than 175 banks fail" should read "176 through 224 banks fail"

posted 13 weeks ago

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$440,716)

Oops: Make that "176 through 225 banks fail"

posted 13 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

"The list at the end of June totaled 416, up from 305 at the end of March.
The number of failed U.S. banks this year totals 81."

posted 12 weeks ago

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$440,716)

Three more this week, in MN, MD, and CA. Total is 84 at end of August.

posted 12 weeks ago

sqlman [Admin]

08/29: "While big institutions such as Citi, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley have grabbed headlines and billions in bailout money, 81 small banks have shuttered their doors so far this year. Despite a rebound in the markets, hundreds of additional banks are expected to close in the coming months as consumers and small businesses default on loans and as local real-estate investments drop."

http://www.newsweek.com/id/214036

posted 11 weeks ago

pics4d Level 14, Prophet (H$102,797)

i heard on NPR that 3 more were taken over yesterday bringing the total to 84 so far

posted 11 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$130,285)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axgxp_5lG2eE

posted 11 weeks ago

mickeydaniel Level 16, Oracle (H$870,701)

5 on Friday make 89 the total to date.

posted 10 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$130,285)

92 latest

posted 9 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$130,285)

5 banks in Collier County on list to possibly default per news at noontime

posted 9 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

"Only" 95 so far, with 3 months to go. Sept had 11 failures, only 3 in the past two weeks....

posted 7 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$130,285)

posted 7 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

@ cool: I just counted 3 times on the official website given above, and I keep getting 95. Where do you get 97?

posted 7 weeks ago

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,715,317)

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE58R58020090929?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true

posted 7 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$130,285)

3 more banks closed today

posted 6 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

The total as of this morning is 98, no new failures reported this w/e.

posted 5 weeks ago

hfl13

99 (+1 this week = 16 Oct)

posted 4 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

only 7 failed banks in the past 5 weeks! Definite slowdown in evidence. Only 10 weekends left this year. Looks like we may finish well short of 125!

posted 4 weeks ago

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$597,906)

i saw a report on the news the commerical loans are now going to have big trouble, like the housing loans deal. that might effect some more banks. supposely obama was briefed on it. guess time will tell.

posted 4 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$130,285)

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSTRE59B55U20091012

posted 4 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$130,285)

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20091024/D9BH4G780.html

100

posted 4 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$130,285)

http://money.cnn.com/2009/10/23/news/economy/bank_failure/index.htm

106

posted 4 weeks ago

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,715,317)

106 (+7)