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Created Sat 22nd Aug 9:31am PST by

markstevenhazell Level 1, Newbie (H$500)

Level 1, Newbie (H$500)

Which city will be the first to get a M7.0+ earthquake?

Background: There are several US cities that may get an earthquake of over 7 on the moment magnitude scale

Category Editor Clarification
Epicenter of earthquake must occur within 100 kilometers of the relevant city.
If a 7.0+ earthquake has not occurred in any of these cities by the suspend date, question will unfortunately be voided.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

San Francisco

27%

Los Angeles

30%

Anchorage

24%

Seattle

20%

Question suspends in 2 years

Activity: H$1,826
Predictions: 17
Comments: 9

Suspend date: Wed 22nd Aug 2012 3:59pm PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: San Francisco: 25%, Los Angeles: 25%, Anchorage: 25%, Seattle: 25%

Action history:

Created Sat 22nd Aug 9:31am PST by

markstevenhazell Level 1, Newbie (H$500)

Level 1, Newbie (H$500)

Changed Description Sat 22nd Aug 2:29pm PST by

[Admin]

Level 14, Prophet (H$121,322)

... 7 on the richter scale<br/> <br/> <b>Category Editor Clarification</b><br/> Epicenter of earthquake must occur within 100 kilometers of the relevant city.

Changed Question text Sat 22nd Aug 3:03pm PST by

[Admin]

Level 14, Prophet (H$121,322)

... ~~which~~Which city will ~~get~~be the ~~biggest~~first ~~earthquake~~to ~~first~~get a M7.0+ earthquake?

Changed Description Sat 22nd Aug 3:03pm PST by

[Admin]

Level 14, Prophet (H$121,322)

... 7 on the richter scale< <br/> <br/> <b>Category Editor Clarification</b><> <br/> Epicenter of earthquake must

Changed Description Mon 24th Aug 2:10pm PST by

[Admin]

Level 14, Prophet (H$121,322)

... of over 7 on the ~~richter~~moment magnitude scale <<br/> <br/> <b>Category Editor Clarification</b~~> <~~><br/> Epicenter of earthquake must ... kilometers of the relevant city.<br/> If a 7.0+ earthquake has not occurred in any of these cities by the suspend date, question will unfortunately be voided.

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Suspend date: Wed 22nd Aug 2012 3:59pm PST (2 years to go) details

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Predictions (17)

1 week ago

licksdexicdepricter Level 3, Apprentice (H$1,104)

Level 3, Apprentice (H$1,104)

predicted Los Angeles (H$100 at 29%)

1 week ago

licksdexicdepricter Level 3, Apprentice (H$1,104)

Level 3, Apprentice (H$1,104)

predicted Los Angeles (H$100 at 28%)

1 week ago

licksdexicdepricter Level 3, Apprentice (H$1,104)

Level 3, Apprentice (H$1,104)

predicted Los Angeles (H$100 at 26%)

3 weeks ago

divakaleigh Level 12, Guru (H$32,244)

Level 12, Guru (H$32,244)

predicted Los Angeles (H$50 at 25%)

4 weeks ago

Level 5, Predictor (H$1,517)

predicted Seattle (H$20 at 21%)

Comments (9)

1

oocares Level 13, Psychic (H$56,027)

Level 13, Psychic (H$56,027)

So which city will get a 7 or above first?

posted 12 weeks ago

2

onedave [Power User]

[Power User]

Level 13, Psychic (H$86,034)

@mark: What is the maximum epicenter-city distance that counts?

posted 12 weeks ago

3

meanderingsearcher Level 1, Newbie (H$14)

Level 1, Newbie (H$14)

the first one to get any earthquake will have the biggest thus far

posted 12 weeks ago

4

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,726,217)

Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,726,217)

neither 100H$ at 0%

posted 12 weeks ago

5

tuff_sledding [Power User]

[Power User]

Level 19, Uberdubber (H$3,065,059)

We need the "none of the above option"!

posted 12 weeks ago

6

tuff_sledding [Power User]

[Power User]

Level 19, Uberdubber (H$3,065,059)

I put 10000 on none of the above

posted 10 weeks ago

7

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,726,217)

Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,726,217)

I'm thinking of creating a question as to if this question will be voided. Is it allowed?

posted 10 weeks ago

8

tuff_sledding [Power User]

[Power User]

Level 19, Uberdubber (H$3,065,059)

I don't see why not. It would be a perfectly legitimate question with clear settlement criteria.

posted 10 weeks ago

9

fingers_of_fury Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,426,338)

Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,426,338)

http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_Hubdub_adminsmoderators_void_this_question__wwwtinyurlcom2c5xqe__without_a_valid_reason_before_the_question_is_able_to_be_settled_2333

posted 10 weeks ago

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