Created Sat 22nd Aug 1:42pm PST by

When will the number of States (including DC) with double digit unemployment drop below 10?

Background: As of the July state-by-state totals, there were 15 states + DC = total of 16 with double digit unemployment, unchanged from June, but up 2 from the May total of 14 and up a total of 8 from April. The economy seems to be stabilizing, but the auto industry and other sectors are still struggling. Instant recovery does not seem to be in the cards. With unemployment at 9.4%, it will not happen overnight, but the global recession seems to be coming to an end.
Can you predict when the number of States (+DC) with 10% or more unemployment rate drop below 10? Settlement will be based on Local Area Unemployment Statistics released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics each month, approximately in mid month: http://www.bls.gov/web/laumstrk.htm.

Settlement details:Settlement will be based on Local Area Unemployment Statistics released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/web/laumstrk.htm

Forecast history %

Dec 2009 or before

Jan - March 2010

April - June 2010

17%

July - Sept 2010

16%

Oct - Dec 2010

22%

Jan - March 2011

18%

April - June 2011

After June 2011 or never

Question suspends in 1 year

Activity: H$11,528
Predictions: 34
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Wed 15th Dec 2010 7:59pm PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: Dec 2009 or before: 8%, Jan - March 2010: 10%, April - June 2010: 14%, July - Sept 2010: 18%, Oct - Dec 2010: 18%, Jan - March 2011: 14%, April - June 2011 : 10%, After June 2011 or never: 8%

Action history:

Created Sat 22nd Aug 1:42pm PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

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