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How many days will the stock market (DJIA) close over 10,000 points in 2009?

Background: http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/28/markets/thebuzz/?postversion=2009082812

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The market keeps chugging along. But with speculative stocks like AIG and Vonage leading the way, you have to wonder if the rally won't soon go off the rails.

"It's clear that the market, in order to grind higher, needs more empirical evidence from companies about a recovery," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist with Prudential Financial. "The market has been propelled higher by lower-grade companies. What needs to happen is a move into the best of breed companies, the ones with better balance sheets."
***
Ground rule: Closing price for the previous trading day will be used for Saturdays, Sundays, Holidays and whatever other day the stock market is closed when it comes to calculating the settlement on this question.
For instance, if the DOW closes at 10,001 on a Friday, it will be considered to be at 10,001 on Saturday and 10,001 on Sunday too for the purposes of settling this question.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
100 days or more
0%
80-99 days
0%
60-79 days
41%
50-59 days
37%
40-49 days
8%
30-39 days
6%
22-29 days
8%
11-21 days
0%
1-10 days
0%
none
0%
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 9:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: 100 days or more: 3%, 80-99 days: 5%, 60-79 days: 6%, 50-59 days: 7%, 40-49 days: 7%, 30-39 days: 8%, 22-29 days: 8%, 11-21 days: 8%, 1-10 days: 8%, none: 40%

Action history:

Created Fri 28th Aug 8:22am PST by imantsdimants

Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 9:59pm PST (4 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (1889)

3 hours ago
rogerkni predicted 22-29 days (H$300 at 4%)
10 hours ago
rogerkni predicted 22-29 days (H$300 at 13%)
15 hours ago
wahsfrog predicted 40-49 days (H$20 at 5%)
21 hours ago
rogerkni predicted 40-49 days (H$100 at 9%)
21 hours ago
rogerkni predicted 30-39 days (H$100 at 8%)

Comments (45)

there are some weird large fluctuations in the wagering here. I don't have any idea what games some folks may be playing here, but from time to time certain options go way up for no apparent reason. Since I have absolutely no idea how many days, if any the Dow will end up over 10k - though I think it will get there at some point - I just put money on whatever has the lowest percentage = best odds. This way I will come out ahead whatever happens, since at one point or another, each option gave great odds.....
posted 5 weeks ago
  2 youbet
well spotted
posted 5 weeks ago
www.hubdub.com/m55128/Dow__Up_or_down__Which_comes_first_9000_or_10000

Dow - Up or down ? Which comes first, 9000 or 10,000?
Settled as Dow closes above 10,000 first

DJIA cracked the 10,000 point barrier finally on October 14 2009
DJIA closed 1.47% higher, gaining 144.80 points to close at 10015.90
posted 5 weeks ago
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac24eb6e-b8b4-11de-809b-00144feab49a.html

JPMorgan profits lift Dow past 10,000
By Francesco Guerrera in New York
Published: October 14 2009

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed above 10,000 for the first time in more than a year on Wednesday after JPMorgan Chase kicked off the US banks’ third-quarter results season by reporting its biggest profit since 2007.
posted 5 weeks ago
Only 3 of the 10 possible outcomes have been ruled out. The Dow could go down from here and option 1-10 becomes the winner. So far, that's the only one that is currently correct....
posted 5 weeks ago
Day 2 above 10,000
***
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125560218009887161.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLTopStories
Rallying energy stocks helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average hold above the 10000 level Thursday for a second day as the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 47.08 points to 10062.94
posted 5 weeks ago
Not looking so good for day 3...
posted 5 weeks ago
www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-insurers-may-remain-busy-in-late-trades-2009-10-16

The S&P 500 finished Friday down 0.8%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 67 points to 9,995.91
***
Days above 10,000 = 2 so far.
posted 4 weeks ago
www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=2121773

Wall St. hits highs for the year
Stock markets in the United States rose to fresh 12-month highs (on Monday, Oct 19, 2009) as optimistic investors rode a wave of solid quarterly earnings.
The Dow Jones industrial average added 96.28 points, or 1% to end at 10,092.19.
***
Days above 10,000 = 3 (thru Oct. 19, 2009)
posted 4 weeks ago
www.hubdub.com/m56514/Dow_Poker_Best_poker_hand_in_Dow_at_close_Tue_20_October_2009_

Dow Poker:
Best poker hand in Dow at close Tue 20 October, 2009?
Settled as 1 pair

DJIA closed at 10041.48,
providing a poker hand from the last five digits of 0, 4, 1, 4, & 8 . . . or a pair of 4s with a 0, 1, & 8
***
Days above 10,000 = 4 (thru Oct 20, 2009)
posted 4 weeks ago
www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/financials-tech-take-tsx-lower/article1331864/

Last updated on Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2009 5:42PM EDT

The Toronto stock market closed sharply lower Wednesday as a late-day selloff in financial and tech stocks reversed a modest advance.

New York markets also fell sharply, with the Dow Jones industrials (DJIA-I) down 92.12 points to 9,949.36.
***
Days above 10,000 = 4 (thru Oct 21, 2009)
posted 4 weeks ago
  12 hfl13
Thanks for the great updates!
posted 4 weeks ago
  13 hfl13
Today was day 5 (thru Oct 22, 2009)

days open
October = 6
November = 20
December = 22

max possible 53

60-79 should cash out and 50 - 59 be careful
posted 4 weeks ago
  14 frogchop
Nice post, hfl. :-)
posted 4 weeks ago
  15 bgrigore
For the days when market is closed, Sat., Sun. or holydays, the result from previous day counts (see Background) so max possible is

October = 9
November = 30
December = 31

max possible is 75, because no Fridays were above 10,000 yet
http://www.google.com/finance/historical?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI
posted 4 weeks ago
www.optionetics.com/market/articles/21902
Closing Wrap-Up, Oct. 22 2009
Bulls regain momentum following number of better than expected earnings reports.
The Dow ($INDU) gained 131.95 points, or 1.33 percent, to a level of 10,081.31.
***
Days above 10,000 = 5 (thru Oct 22, 2009)
posted 4 weeks ago
www.thestreet.com/story/10616239/1/fast-money-recap-next-weeks-market.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEFI
10/23/09 - 07:32 PM EDT
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The markets tumbled Friday despite some strong tech earnings and encouraging existing home sales figures.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 109.13, or 1.08%, to 9,972.18.
Steve Grasso said on CNBC's "Fast Money" TV show that it felt on the floor that "people still wanted to buy but they were spooked."
***
Days above 10,000 = 5 (thru Oct 23, 2009)
posted 4 weeks ago
  18 hfl13
@bgrigore Thanks for showing again that I donīt read questions completely!

Congrats imantsdimants on a great design - love the weekend & holiday rule.
posted 3 weeks ago
@hfl13: ;-)
posted 3 weeks ago
www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8XJKzkXnQzg

Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) --
U.S. stocks slid, erasing an early rally, on concern lawmakers will phase out a tax credit for homebuyers.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 104.22 points, or 1.1 percent, to 9,867.96.
***
Days above 10,000 = 5 (thru Oct 26, 2009)
posted 3 weeks ago
www.hubdub.com/m57282/Dow_Poker_Best_poker_hand_in_Dow_at_close_Tue_27_October_2009_

Dow Poker: Best poker hand in Dow at close Tue 27 October, 2009?
Settled as 1 pair
With the DJIA closing at 9882.17, the best poker hand is one pair...8s with a 7, 2, 1.
***
Days above 10,000 = 5 (thru Oct 27, 2009)
posted 3 weeks ago
http://money.cnn.com/2009/10/28/markets/markets_newyork/?postversion=2009102818
Stocks slammed
A surprise drop in new home sales sends market lower, with the Nasdaq sliding for the fourth straight session, as investors question strength of the economic recovery.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: October 28, 2009: 6:49 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks tumbled Wednesday, led by the tech-fueled Nasdaq, as a weaker-than-expected new home sales report added to questions about the strength of the economic recovery.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 119 points, or 1.2%, to close at 9,762.69.
***
Days above 10,000 = 5 (thru Oct 28, 2009)
posted 3 weeks ago
up 200 points today to 9962. never a dull moment. anything can happen from here...
posted 3 weeks ago
http://money.aol.com/market-news

Commerce Department's report that gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the 3rd quarter reinvigorated investors who had dumped stocks for much of the week
But many analysts caution that it will be hard to sustain the growth at that pace.
"I don't think that at this point in the rebound that the economy would be self-sustainable,"
said Jason D. Pride, director of research at Haverford Investments in Philadelphia.
Dow Jones industrial average rose 199.89, or 2.1 percent, to 9,962.58.
***
Days above 10,000 = 5 (thru Oct 29, 2009)
posted 3 weeks ago
  25 hfl13
Today is another monsterfriday: Will it be 3*Yes or No.
posted 3 weeks ago
www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-industrials-drop-24985-points-to-971273-2009-10-30
Oct. 30, 2009, 4:08 p.m. EDT ·
Dow industrials drop 249.85 points to 9,712.73
***
Days above 10,000 = 5 (thru Oct 30, 2009)
posted 3 weeks ago
www.thestreet.com/story/10620468/1/fast-money-recap-a-wild-day.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The roller-coaster ride on Wall Street continued Monday...Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 76.71, or 0.79%, to 9,789.44.
***
Days above 10,000 = 5 (thru Nov 02, 2009)
posted 2 weeks ago
www.hubdub.com/m57879/Dow_Poker_Best_poker_hand_in_Dow_at_close_Tue_03_November_2009_
Dow Poker: Best poker hand in Dow at close Tue 03 November, 2009?
Settled as 2 pair
Looks like we have two pair today...7s & 1s
DJIA closed at 9771.91, allowing for two pair out of the last 5 digits
***
Days above 10,000 = 5 (thru Nov 03, 2009)
posted 2 weeks ago
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200911041620DOWJONESDJONLINE000857_FORTUNE5.htm
MARKET SNAPSHOT: U.S. Stock Gains Crumble In Closing Minutes
November 04, 2009: 04:20 PM ET
U.S. stocks lost the bulk of their gains in Wednesday's closing minutes: Up more than 140 points earlier, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) closed up just 30.23 points at 9,802.14.
***
Days above 10,000 = 5 (thru Nov 04, 2009)
posted 2 weeks ago
http://money.aol.com/article/stocks-surge-on-jobs-data-cisco-forecast/527073?v=aolrss
A bright forecast from Cisco Systems and upbeat economic news sent stocks soaring Thursday.
The Dow rose 203.82 to 10,005.96, its first close above 10,000 since Oct. 22.
***
Days above 10,000 = 6 (thru Nov 05, 2009)
posted 2 weeks ago
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091106-716415.html?mod=rss_Hot_Stocks
NOVEMBER 6, 2009, 5:04 P.M. ET
U.S. stocks ended higher Friday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 17.46 points to 10023.42.
***
Days above 10,000 = 9 (thru Nov 08, 2009)
(see background rule re. "closing price for the previous trading day being used for Saturdays, Sundays..."
***
hfl13 (posted 1 week ago) :
"Today is another monsterfriday: Will it be 3*Yes or No. "
***
Last week "No"; this week "Yes"!
posted 2 weeks ago
www.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474977892936&grpId=3659174697244816&nav=Groupspace
Dow closes at 10,226.94, a 52-week high
November 09, 2009 04:32 PM EST
***
Days above 10,000 = 10 (thru Nov 09, 2009)
posted 1 week ago
www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-market-pauses-after-winning-stretch-2009-11-10

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks ended little changed on Tuesday, with investors stepping back after the prior day's rally took the major indexes to 13-month highs.
Up for a fifth consecutive day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 20.03 points to 10,246.97.
***
Days above 10,000 = 11 (thru Nov 10, 2009)
posted 1 week ago
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704402404574529223816636670.html?mod=article-outset-box
NOVEMBER 11, 2009, 9:30 P.M. ET
Dow rose 44.29 points, or 0.4%, to 10291.26, another new high for 2009.
***
Days above 10,000 = 12 (thru Nov 11, 2009)
posted 1 week ago
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703811604574532080021166404.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
NOVEMBER 13, 2009
Snapping a six-day winning streak the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 93.79 points to 10197.47.
***
Days above 10,000 = 13 (thru Nov 12, 2009)
posted 1 week ago
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200911131653DOWJONESDJONLINE000653_FORTUNE5.htm
November 13, 2009: 04:53 PM ET
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 73 points, or 0.7%, to end at 10,270.47, finishing the week with a gain of 2.5%.
***
Days above 10,000 = 16 (thru Nov 15, 2009)
(see background rule re. "closing price for the previous trading day being used for Saturdays, Sundays...")
posted 1 week ago
  37 bigken1
Thanks Imants,
I can't believe the ground rule... Now I know why i kept losing money on this dumb question.. NO offense.....; when in Rome do as the Romans do... (but hey , i am not in Rome)...

Ok... ugh...Going back to something sensible...ken
posted 5 days ago
@bigken1: re. "hey , i am not in Rome" - Where are you?
posted 5 days ago
@bigken1: Seriously, I'm amazed at how much you're able to push this market around!
posted 5 days ago
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704431804574539292098058228.html?mod=article-outset-box
NOVEMBER 16, 2009, 6:57 P.M. ET
Stocks Reach 13-Month Highs; Dow Adds 1.3%:
Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 136.49 points to 10406.96.
***
Days above 10,000 = 17 (thru Nov 16, 2009)
posted 4 days ago
www.hubdub.com/m59296/Dow_Poker_Best_poker_hand_in_Dow_at_close_Tue_17_November_2009_
Dow Poker: Best poker hand in Dow at close Tue 17 November, 2009?
Settled as 1 pair
Best poker hand for the Dow was 1 pair...DJIA closed at 10437.42...one pair of 4s with a 2, 3, 7.
***
Days above 10,000 = 18 (thru Nov 17, 2009)
posted 3 days ago
  42 bigken1
hi imants,
Well, am in silver spring, where are u , if not in rome?

I needed to read it more thoroughly ... my bad..not your fault..
i was mad a t myself..
thx, ken
posted 2 days ago
@ken: minisnowta
***
www.coinnews.net/2009/11/18/gold-touches-1153oz-us-stocks-retreat/
U.S. stocks fell "after a drop in new home construction made investors jittery.
Dow Jones industrial average fell 11.11 points to 10,426.31.
***
Days above 10,000 = 19 (thru Nov 18, 2009)
posted 2 days ago
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704533904574546142796858408.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
U.S. stocks fell for the second-straight session on an analyst's downgrade of Intel and other chip makers.
For Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 93.87 points to 10332.44.
***
Days above 10,000 = 20 (thru Nov 19, 2009)
posted 1 day ago
www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/11/20/business/business-uk-markets-global.html
Published: November 20, 2009
Filed at 6:27 p.m. ET
Dow Jones industrial average closed down 14.28 points, or 0.14 percent, at 10,318.16.
***
Days above 10,000 = 23 (thru Nov 22, 2009)
(see background rule re. "closing price for the previous trading day being used for Saturdays, Sundays...")
posted 8 hours ago

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