Created Sat 29th Aug 8:48am PST by 
carnacthemagnificent
carnacthemagnificent 
Ted Kennedy Senate replacement election race : Will it be close?
Background: Massachusetts state law calls for a special election to elect the replacement for a vacated US Senate seat.
Will it be a close race?
What will be the difference in the percentage of the vote gained by the winner and the runner-up? For example, if the winner has 48% of the vote and the second place candidate has 30% of the vote, this question settles as 18%.
Will it be a close race?
What will be the difference in the percentage of the vote gained by the winner and the runner-up? For example, if the winner has 48% of the vote and the second place candidate has 30% of the vote, this question settles as 18%.
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Forecast history %
| Less than 5% |
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| 5% to less than 10% |
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| 10% to less than 15% |
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| 15% to less than 20% |
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| 20% to less than 30% |
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| 30% to less than 40% |
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| 40% to less than 50% |
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| 50% to less than 60% |
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| 60% to less than 75% |
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| Other |
|
Question suspends in 14 weeks
- Activity: H$2,340 |
- Predictions: 16 |
Comments: 2
Suspend date: Mon 1st Mar 2010 7:59pm PST (14 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Less than 5%: 5%, 5% to less than 10%: 8%, 10% to less than 15%: 15%, 15% to less than 20%: 33%, 20% to less than 30%: 15%, 30% to less than 40%: 8%, 40% to less than 50%: 7%, 50% to less than 60%: 5%, 60% to less than 75%: 3%, Other: 1%
Action history:
Created Sat 29th Aug 8:48am PST by carnacthemagnificent
carnacthemagnificent 
Suspend date: Mon 1st Mar 2010 7:59pm PST (14 weeks to go) details 
Get widget!Predictions (16)
czartim
predicted 10% to less than 15% (H$50 at 22%)
flamingo
predicted 10% to less than 15% (H$300 at 19%)Comments (2)
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http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2009/08/28/galvin_presents_two_dates_for_election_to_fill_senate_seat/
John Kerry (D) : 66%
Jeff Beatty (R) : 31%
Kerry was/is a long-sitting incumbent. I expect the race for Ted's seat to be closer.
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