Created Sun 30th Aug 8:03pm PST by

pics4d Level 14, Prophet (H$101,918)

will the US gov't realize a profit from the $700B TARP fund by June 1, 2010?

Background: the gov't has profited $4 billion so far in interest and dividend payments from the banks that have paid back their loans, but there are still large loans out that could go bad and easily wipe that out...will we end up losing or making money on the deal?

not sure when to end this, so suspension date is tentatively set for June 1, 2010 and subject to change.

CatEd Notation: Setting this to definitely end as of June 1, since to allow it to extend could only serve to benefit those taking the position that profit would be earned...so now the direction of the question will be WILL profits of $700B be earned by June 1 or not?

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/31/business/economy/31taxpayer.html?_r=1&hp

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Yes

37%

63%

Question suspends in 25 weeks

Activity: H$17,917
Predictions: 5
Comments: 3

Suspend date: Fri 21st May 2010 11:59pm PST (25 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%

Action history:

Created Sun 30th Aug 8:03pm PST by

pics4d Level 14, Prophet (H$101,918)

Changed Question text Wed 2nd Sep 3am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: ... from the $700B TARP fund by June 1, 2010?

Changed Description Wed 2nd Sep 3am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: show details

... date is tentatively set for ~~june~~June 1, 2010 and subject to change. <br/> <br/> CatEd Notation: Setting this to definitely end as of June 1, since to allow it to extend could only serve to benefit those taking the position that profit would be earned...so now the direction of the question will be WILL profits of $700B be earned by June 1 or not? <br/> <br/> <a href="http://

Changed Suspend date Wed 2nd Sep 3am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: was: "2010-06-01 23:59:00"

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Suspend date: Fri 21st May 2010 11:59pm PST (25 weeks to go) details

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Predictions (5)

1 week ago

mdad8200 Level 8, Super-Pro (H$5,458)

predicted No (H$50 at 63%)

2 weeks ago

corbelle Level 7, Pro (H$4,257)

predicted No (H$175 at 63%)

11 weeks ago

kruijs [Power User]

predicted Yes (H$3,000 at 46%)

Comments (3)

bayoubear [Admin]

Profits have been earned so far on 'some' of the loans, but the intent of the question should be, will the $700B investment be basically repaid by the profits earned as of 7/1/10....

posted 11 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

@bb: I am not sure the above phrasing is clear enough. It seems to have fundamentally changed the question. I don't think the expectation is that all of the 700B will be repaid by a fixed date. So, it is likely that, say, half of the loans, or maybe 3/4 will be repaid, probably with a substantial profit, but there will still be some amount outstanding. So, how will that settle? Also, in the Cat Ed Notation above you state: "WILL profits of $700B be earned by June 1 or not?" Did you mean "on the 700B?" or "of 700B"? Right now, it's a bit of a muddle. It took me a while to figure it out, but I think your comment above probably is the right way to look at it. I am just not sure that everyone will be clear on what your intent is, especially since it is only in the comment, rather than Cat ED note in background. If I understood correctly, you are asking: "will the return of principal plus interest and dividends payments by June 1, 2010 cover all of the $700B loaned to the banks?"

posted 11 weeks ago

pics4d Level 14, Prophet (H$101,918)

gov't could earn a few billion selling citigroup shares

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-looking-at-selling-Citi-rb-4281300820.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=

posted 9 weeks ago