Created Wed 2nd Sep 1:06am PST by

How many party leaders will attend Sky's debate?

Background: John Ryley, the head of Sky News, has announced in The Times (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article6817701.ece) that Sky will be holding a debate between the leaders of the Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties before the next election - whether they want it or not.

As he puts it 'A date and time will be set. Three chairs provided. The decision for the politicians is simple: fill them or leave them empty. I give this guarantee: the cameras will be rolling'.

David Cameron, the leader of the Conservatives, has been challenging Prime Minister and leader of the Labour Party Gordon Brown to a TV debate for months, only to be met with silence, and Nick Clegg, leader of the Liberal Democrats, is said by a party spokesman to be 'very eager to take part in this type of debate' (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6817832.ece).

How many of the leaders will accept Sky's invitation and show up?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Should the leadership of any of the parties change before the debate, the question asks whether the leaders of the parties at the time of the debate will attend - it does not have to be the particular three individuals named in the background information if they are no longer leaders of their respective parties.

If a debate does occur (or even more than one) but it is clearly not that outlined by John Ryley in his Times article, this will not be enough to settle the question.

Forecast history %

The cameras roll, but no-one turns up

One leader attends

Two leaders attend

15%

All three leaders attend

38%

This debate doesn't occur

33%

Question suspends in 31 weeks

Activity: H$8,498
Predictions: 8
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Thu 1st Jul 2010 3:59pm PST (31 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: The cameras roll, but no-one turns up: 10%, One leader attends: 5%, Two leaders attend: 15%, All three leaders attend: 40%, This debate doesn't occur: 30%

Action history:

Created Wed 2nd Sep 1:06am PST by

ojw15

Changed Settlement info Wed 2nd Sep 1:09pm PST by