Will Google's Android ship on more mobile phones than Apple ships iPhones by end-2010?

Background: With HTC, Samsung, Motorola, Huawei, Sony Ericsson, LG and many others all making devices based on Android, can they ship enough units to overtake the fruit company by end of 2010?

This is just for mobile phones: iPod Touch, tablet devices or notebooks without a SIM card inside do not count for either side. Any version of iPhone, any version of Android. Total sales from launch to end of 2010.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. Most likely an industry report in Q1 2011.

Forecast history %

Yes

45%

55%

Question suspends in 44 weeks

Activity: H$25,478
Predictions: 25
Comments: 1

Suspend date: Thu 30th Sep 2010 3:59pm PST (44 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 15%

Action history:

Created Thu 3rd Sep 7:51am PST by

ordinaryman Level 6, Player (H$2,917)

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Suspend date: Thu 30th Sep 2010 3:59pm PST (44 weeks to go) details

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Predictions (25)

1 day ago

jammmie999 Level 4, Whiz-kid (H$1,242)

predicted No (H$100 at 55%)

5 days ago

trashmagnet Level 5, Predictor (H$1,508)

predicted No (H$20 at 82%)

2 weeks ago

tomrcraver Level 10, Genius (H$11,126)

predicted Yes (H$100 at 30%)

2 weeks ago

sdassani Level 10, Genius (H$10,212)

predicted No (H$200 at 70%)

2 weeks ago

llawliet Level 4, Whiz-kid (H$1,250)

predicted Yes (H$100 at 30%)

Comments (1)

tomrcraver Level 10, Genius (H$11,126)

Chances are Apple will introduce a new variant of iPhone around mid-2010, resulting in sales of either the 3G or 3GS version falling off for the second half the year. (My guess would be that they'll bring out a better high end - no point pushing 3GS down so soon, and they need more product differentiation between low and high end.) That could give the Moto Droid an advantage for purposes of this question, if the same version stays on sale all of 2010 (as would seem likely).

On the other hand, several manufacturers will soon introduce Android phones, diluting the appeal/share of any one version, as different variants appeal to different customers.

But on the gripping hand, having lots of Android variants will yield more sales for the most popular Android phone, as people accept Android as a cool and viable alternative to iPhone. I.e. the question for some will shift from "iPhone or Android" to "Which Android?", much as "PC or Mac?" shifted to "Which PC?" for most people.

So - interesting question! Just want to clarify - the question is "any single version of Android or iPhone" - not "all versions of Android vs all iPhone versions", correct?

Some useful sites :
http://telephonyonline.com - industry new/opinion site
http://phandroid.com - Android fan site (i.e. biased, but likely to pick up Android info quickly)

posted 1 week ago