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Created Thu 3rd Sep 2:15pm PST by

Level 19, Uberdubber (H$3,014,458)

How many Blockbuster movies will there be in 2009?

Background: "Blockbuster" = A movie which is a huge financial success. In common usage a "blockbuster" is a movie that has a box-office of more than $100 million upon release in North America.
-Internet Movie Database definition

Danger: I ask "will there be" and not "have started". This is important for December starts (Chrismas). These movies need to reach 100m in 2009. All movies that started in December 2008 made less than 100m in 2009 and don´t count for this question.

2004: 24
2005: 19
2006: 19
2007: 28
2008: 29

today: 18
Destrict 9 is a save bet and Inglourious Basterds probable. How many more will there be in 2009?

I plan to continue this question with Q1 in 2010.

Please feel free to name your remaining blockbuster candidates for 2009 in the comments.

Settlement details:As reported by http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2009&view=releasedate&view2=domestic&sort=gross&order=DESC&&p=.htm as soon as the numbers for December 31th are included. This is not about their total but about their 2009 numbers. January 2010 earnings do not count !

Forecast history %

20 and less

0%

21 and 22

0%

23 and 24

2%

25 and 26

9%

27 and 28

71%

29 and 30

10%

more than 30

8%

Question suspends in 5 weeks

Activity: H$51,413
Predictions: 46
Comments: 28

Suspend date: Wed 30th Dec 3am PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: 20 and less: 9%, 21 and 22: 14%, 23 and 24: 17%, 25 and 26: 20%, 27 and 28: 17%, 29 and 30: 14%, more than 30: 9%

Action history:

Created Thu 3rd Sep 2:15pm PST by

Level 19, Uberdubber (H$3,014,458)

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Suspend date: Wed 30th Dec 3am PST (5 weeks to go) details

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Predictions (46)

5 weeks ago

philculp Level 15, Seer (H$484,504)

Level 15, Seer (H$484,504)

predicted 29 and 30 (H$100 at 6%)

10 weeks ago

sdchargers [Power User]

[Power User]

Level 20, Hubdub God (H$5,748,509)

predicted more than 30 (H$500 at 8%)

10 weeks ago

philphan1 Level 12, Guru (H$31,228)

Level 12, Guru (H$31,228)

predicted 23 and 24 (H$20 at 14%)

10 weeks ago

adil87 Level 1, Newbie (H$993)

Level 1, Newbie (H$993)

predicted 25 and 26 (H$25 at 24%)

11 weeks ago

Level 14, Prophet (H$239,333)

predicted 23 and 24 (H$150 at 25%)

Comments (28)

1

Level 14, Prophet (H$122,773)

Here's my current list:

District 9
Inglourious Basterds
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Where the Wild Things Are
A Christmas Carol
2012
New Moon
Avatar
plus a wild card

posted 11 weeks ago

2

Level 19, Uberdubber (H$3,014,458)

@mvguy impressive list for 27

I only disagree with one movie and maybe the wildcard. My list will be posted after Destrict 9 or Inglorious Basterds finish my "next 100m movie" Q.

posted 11 weeks ago

3

Level 14, Prophet (H$122,773)

Yeah, maybe I should have made "Meatballs" my wild card. We'll see.

posted 10 weeks ago

4

Level 19, Uberdubber (H$3,014,458)

#19 Destrict 9 yesterday

posted 10 weeks ago

5

Level 14, Prophet (H$122,773)

And "Basterds" certainly will by the end of the week, making the total 20.

And none of last weekend's films has any hope of being my wild card. That's an understatement.

posted 10 weeks ago

6

Level 14, Prophet (H$122,773)

I've changed my mind:

Here's my current list:

District 9
Inglourious Basterds
Where the Wild Things Are
A Christmas Carol
2012
New Moon
Avatar
plus a wild card

posted 10 weeks ago

7

Level 19, Uberdubber (H$3,014,458)

#20 Inglourious Basterds last weekend

I hope there are a few surprises othertwise it gets too boring/predictable.

posted 9 weeks ago

8

Level 19, Uberdubber (H$3,014,458)

20
Where the Wild Things Are
The Twilight Saga: New Moon
Avatar
2012
A Christmas Carol
Sherlock Holmes
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel
+ one Wild Card (Couples Retreat, SAW IV, The Princess and the Frog)
= 28

posted 9 weeks ago

9

Level 14, Prophet (H$122,773)

I don't think either of the Christmas Day movies will get to $100M that fast. But now I'm' wondering about "Meatballs." Its early numbers look pretty good. If this were summer, it'd probably make it.

posted 8 weeks ago

10

Level 14, Prophet (H$122,773)

After seeing the weekend estimates, I wouldn't be surprised now to see "Meatballs" top $100 million. So I'm either at 26 or thinking there could be another wild card for 27. Right now I have money on both possibilities.

posted 7 weeks ago

11

Level 19, Uberdubber (H$3,014,458)

20
Cloudy (Wild Card)
Where the Wild Things Are
The Twilight Saga: New Moon
Avatar
2012
A Christmas Carol
Sherlock Holmes
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel
+ no other Wild Card (Couples Retreat, SAW IV, The Princess and the Frog)
= 28

posted 6 weeks ago

12

Level 19, Uberdubber (H$3,014,458)

@mvguy there are 3 movies in danger of being cut of before reaching 100m:
18th December Avatar (HSX 191m 4 weeks) should be ok
25th December Sherlock Holmes (HSX 138m 4weeks)
25th December Alvin 2 (HSX 128m 4weeks)

posted 6 weeks ago

13

Level 14, Prophet (H$122,773)

I agree that neither of the Christmas movies have enough time to reach $100M, but I think "Avatar" will.

So right now, I have this:
20
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Where the Wild Things Are
The Twilight Saga: New Moon
Avatar
2012
A Christmas Carol

That makes 26. The question is whether there's a wild card. "Couples Retreat" could be one. It had a very strong opening weekend, but the reviews are dismal, so it's hard to tell how long it will hang on.

posted 5 weeks ago

14

Level 14, Prophet (H$122,773)

I'll say now the "Couples Retreat" will pass $100M. So I'm predicting 27 films, 28 if there's another surprise.

posted 5 weeks ago

15

Level 19, Uberdubber (H$3,014,458)

And MJs This is it could be another wild card. AIG seems to plan to either prolong the run or make a second time limited release of the concert movie.

posted 5 weeks ago

16

Level 14, Prophet (H$122,773)

I'm no longer convinced "Wild Things" will top $100M. It might, but not this month.

posted 4 weeks ago

17

Level 14, Prophet (H$122,773)

"This Is It' will definitely go beyond two weeks. The question is whether they'll extend the run or have the encore run this year.

posted 4 weeks ago

18

Level 19, Uberdubber (H$3,014,458)

Wild things is hard to predict because the kiddy animation rules don´t apply.
There was a lot of competition this weekend. I will follow the movie close with my reference Cloudy´s numbers.

The chances for 100m of Couples Retreat and Paranormal Activity are shrinking.

Paramount gave up #1 this week without a fight and presumably lost #2. The careful approach to do this in two steps

The movies power was proven and they didn´t go to 2000 theaters - their mistake. All the medias attention for the #1 is good for about 5 million every week.

posted 4 weeks ago

19

Level 14, Prophet (H$122,773)

My current prediction:

21
Paranormal Activity
Michael Jackson's This Is It
A Christmas Carol
2012
The Twilight Saga: New Moon
Avatar

posted 3 weeks ago

20

Level 19, Uberdubber (H$3,014,458)

21
Paranormal Activity
The Twilight Saga: New Moon
Avatar
2012
A Christmas Carol
Wild Card (Sherlock Holmes/Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel/The Princess and the Frog)
= 27

posted 3 weeks ago

21

Level 14, Prophet (H$122,773)

I've taken MIchael Jackson's film off my list. It think it's a real long shot now for $100M. I don't see any of Hfl13's wild cards making it either, so my number is 26.

posted 3 weeks ago

22

Level 19, Uberdubber (H$3,014,458)

Couples Retreat now has 80,5m and could reach 100m with a good weekend and time. There are a few other wild card possibilities.

posted 3 weeks ago

23

Level 14, Prophet (H$122,773)

I'm expecting "Couples Retreat" to end up in the high $90Ms, so at this point, I wouldn't call my prediction of 26 a slam-dunk. I think the most likely wild card to upset my prediction is "The Princess and the Frog"; maybe the parents taking the kiddies to movies will be tired of 3-D and dark films and want something a bit more retro.

posted 2 weeks ago

24

Level 14, Prophet (H$122,773)

Friday's preliminary numbers for "Couples Retreat" look surprisingly good (surprising to me, anyway). So I'm going to go for broke.

posted 1 week ago

25

Level 19, Uberdubber (H$3,014,458)

;-)

posted 1 week ago

26

Level 19, Uberdubber (H$3,014,458)

21
Paranormal Activity
Couples Retreat
The Twilight Saga: New Moon
Avatar
2012
Wild Card (A Christmas Carol/Sherlock Holmes/Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel/The Princess and the Frog)
= 27

Couples Retreat will make it - A Christmas Carol maybe not.

posted 1 week ago

27

Level 14, Prophet (H$122,773)

I'm predicting almost the same thing:

21
22. Paranormal Activity
23. Couples Retreat
24. The Twilight Saga: New Moon
25. 2012
26. A Christmas Carol
27. Avatar
No wild cards.

posted 1 week ago

28

Level 14, Prophet (H$122,773)

After this weekend, it'll be:

25.
26. A Christmas Carol
27. Avatar
No wild cards.

posted 1 day ago

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