Created Wed 9th Sep 11:04am PST by

Which of these Winter Blockbusters will make the most at the US box office?

Background: Having liked burnsie1983 "Summer Blockbuster" question so much I decided to create this Winter/Chrismas Season question with lots of Blockbusters.

This is only between the 10 named movies - I want no "other option" because I limited the alternatives by picking the 10 strongest candidates by HSX. If another movie is Winter too or a surprise hit appears - bad luck I won´t have it with this question.

I will continue the seasons with this question!

Settlement details:As reported by http://www.boxofficemojo.com.

1. Only the named movies participate
2. For every movie only the 5 week total count. (exception 3.)
3. If there are changes with the release date the movie´s box office numbers only count up to the settlement date in 4.
4. Question is settled with the BOM numbers of Thursday, 18th March 2010. This can be settled early if the later contenders are more than 20m behind the leader after the 2nd weekend.

Forecast history %

2012

A Chrismas Carol

Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel

Avatar

The Book of Eli

The Princess and the Frog

Sherlock Holmes

Twilight Saga: New Moon

95%

Valentine's Day

The Wolfman

Question suspends in 16 weeks

Activity: H$83,565
Predictions: 128
Comments: 7

Suspend date: Sat 13th Mar 2010 3:05pm PST (16 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: 2012: 15%, A Chrismas Carol: 10%, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel : 10%, Avatar: 20%, The Book of Eli: 5%, The Princess and the Frog: 5%, Sherlock Holmes: 5%, Twilight Saga: New Moon: 20%, Valentine's Day: 5%, The Wolfman: 5%

Action history:

Created Wed 9th Sep 11:04am PST by

hfl13

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Suspend date: Sat 13th Mar 2010 3:05pm PST (16 weeks to go) details

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Predictions (128)

2 hours ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,364)

predicted Avatar (H$500 at 9%)

3 hours ago

anifersgirl Level 9, Expert (H$8,583)

predicted Avatar (H$58 at 4%)

4 hours ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,682,776)

predicted Avatar (H$100 at 3%)

15 hours ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,682,776)

predicted Avatar (H$100 at 5%)

2 days ago

babyphat09 Level 1, Newbie (H$898)

predicted Twilight Saga: New Moon (H$100 at 80%)

Comments (7)

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,682,776)

I might be entirely wrong about this one, but I just saw the Avatar trailer and the New Moon trailer. My hunch is that Avatar is going to be epic on the level of the first Star Wars or Terminator. Personally, I don't see the attraction to New Moon at all..

posted 2 weeks ago

philculp Level 15, Seer (H$485,620)

I agree with you regarding New Moon. We, however, are not female. :) Every female I new know is going crazy and cannot wait to see this.

posted 2 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

Me=Female & Dying to see it.

We have now conclusively proven it will be a huge hit ;)

posted 2 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,682,776)

Aha, I knew I was missing the proper homone mix to understand this one. Thanks for the insight, Jenni (& Phil).

posted 2 weeks ago

sqlman [Admin]

Well, thankfully, this most recent vampire resurrection appears to be coming to an end due to oversaturation, but even so, I'd imagine New Moon will do great box office. I really want to like Avatar--and after Titanic, it's hard to count James Cameron out, but, aside from the awesome visuals, I'm not entirely convinced it's gonna be a big hit. Frogchop mentioned Star Wars, which is funny; one reviewer I read stated that the pre-release cut he'd seen looked like an overlong episode of the Smurfs, only with the Smurfs with the shape, size, and personality of Jar-Jar Binks.

Yikes...

(Then again, pre-release reviewers of Titanic weren't kind to it, either, so we'll see.)

posted 2 weeks ago

hfl13

Jar Jar Binks the ultimate horror of almost everyone above the age of eight ! ;-)

posted 7 hours ago

sqlman [Admin]

I saw the long-form Avatar trailer on a DLP screen, and I have to say the thing looks completely incredible both visually and from a storytelling standpoint. Still, though, I went to the theater last night and saw the parking lot much fuller than I've seen it for any other movie ever, mostly females of every age lining up to watch two hunks fight for the affections of a morose and droopy girl, so I don't think anything else has much of a chance...

posted 2 hours ago