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what will the IAAF do with South African gold medal winner semenya?

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Background:

Background: semenya won the women's 800m race at the World Athletics Championships last month and was ordered to undergo gender testing...some british sources are reporting that she is a hermaphrodite leading to speculation about what the IAAF will do...while her testosterone level is higher than a "normal" woman, they are within official limits

Settlement details:As reported by www.iaaf.org or a major mainstream news source...deals with original decision regardless of any appeals

 
Forecast history %
no change in status(keep medal, run as female)
18%
strip medal and ban from female competitions
10%
keep medal but ban from further female competition
64%
something else
8%
Predictions on this question are temporarily suspended

Suspend date: Wed 18th Nov 7:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: no change in status(keep medal, run as female): 35%, strip medal and ban from female competitions: 35%, keep medal but ban from further female competition: 20%, something else: 10%

Action history:

Created Thu 10th Sep 2:01pm PST by pics4d
Changed Suspend date Fri 11th Sep 7:17am PST by mrperfkt[Admin]: was: "2009-11-10 15:59:00"
Suspended Fri 11th Sep 7:18am PST by mrperfkt[Admin]: Suspended to review news updates and possible known settlement
Changed Suspend date Mon 14th Sep 4:46pm PST by mrperfkt[Admin]: was: "2009-09-11 08:00:00"
Unsuspended Mon 14th Sep 4:46pm PST by mrperfkt[Admin]
Suspended Wed 18th Nov 7:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Suspend date: Wed 18th Nov 7:59pm PST details

 

Predictions (28)

1 week ago
charlieh predicted keep medal but ban from further female competition (H$100 at 63%)
1 week ago
pitchedoutsideleg predicted keep medal but ban from further female competition (H$3,000 at 47%)
5 weeks ago
philphan1 predicted no change in status(keep medal, run as female) (H$20 at 34%)
8 weeks ago
blacksoapman predicted keep medal but ban from further female competition (H$20 at 36%)
8 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted something else (H$300 at 21%)

Comments (3)

  1 pics4d
nothing is known officially yet...the iaaf hasn't even received all the tests yet...to repeat what i said in the other Q...
these reports are not substantiated at all...the iaaf has not finished reviewing the results of the tests...after that they will have discussions with semenya..could take a few weeks still before they release the results...while she does have higher testosterone levels than a "normal" female, it is still within official, legal range
posted this morning http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26056981-401,00.html - The IAAF expects to receive the full set of results this week.
from http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/more_sport/athletics/article6829813.ece - general secretary, Pierre Weiss, said: “It is clear that she is a woman but maybe not 100 per cent.” and The IAAF is still lacking the South African tests
from http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/news/story?id=4455424 - The definitive outcome will be determined within about two weeks after test results arrive in Monaco...."Only then, with conclusive evidence, would we be in a position to make an educated decision based on that evidence," Davies said. "My information is that it will take between eight days and two weeks to be in a position to speak to Semenya and decide where to go."
from http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/trackandfield/news/story?id=4463535 - we will not be in a position to speak to the athlete about them for at least a few weeks.
"After that, depending on the results, we will meet privately with the athlete to discuss further action," he said....Davies said the newspaper's report "should be treated with caution."

the media can't even agree on whether her medal would be stripped or not, let alone if the iaaf will determine she is male/female/hermaphrodite...speculation by the media using 1 anonymous source does not rise to the level required for a settlement...it is precisely because of this discrepancy between the various media sources that i created this Q...until the iaaf officially releases it's decision this should be allowed to run i think
posted 10 weeks ago
  2 pics4d
the fact that good hubdubbers(some of which have a better score than me) are undecided on what to wager and are taking opposing positions should help show that the results are not in fact known...of u have access to some other source that's more definitive, kewl...but from what i've seen so far, the results are not yet known
posted 10 weeks ago
  3 pics4d
IAAF news release this morning

STATEMENT ON CASTER SEMENYA
New IAAF LOGO (IAAF.org)

New IAAF LOGO (IAAF.org)

Monte-Carlo - The IAAF has noted statements in recent media articles regarding the athlete Caster Semenya of South Africa.

We would like to emphasise that these should not be considered as official statements by the IAAF.

We can officially confirm that gender verification test results will be examined by a group of medical experts. NO decision on the case will be communicated until the IAAF has had the opportunity to complete this examination. We do not expect to make a final decision on this case before the next meeting of the IAAF Council which takes place in Monaco on November 20-21.

Please note that there will be no further comments from the IAAF on Caster Semenya until that time.
posted 10 weeks ago

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