When will Gordon Brown cease to be UK's Prime Minister?

Background: Gordon Brown has been under pressure for some time - on Afghanistan, the release of Megrahi, the UK economy for example, and because of his party's falling poll numbers.

There have been many (unsubstantiated) rumours of a "coup", of health problems, of challenges to his position as leader of the Labour Party, and of him standing down to "save the party".

In addition the next UK General Election has to be held at the latest by 3rd June 2010

So .... when will Gordon Brown cease to be Prime Minister .... or will he survive against all the current odds?

The suspend date has been set as end May 2010 because if Mr Brown is still PM at that time and the General Election has not been held he will still have a chance to win it and survive. If the General Election is held before then while he is still PM then, even if Labour win, there will still be the question as to whether he continues as Leader and PM - a debate which may run for some time. Therefore if the question has not been resolved by end May 2010 there will still be two possible outcomes available.

Category Editor Clarification
According to Rule 2.3.1, this question will be settled on the date of a confirmed announcement that Gordon Brown will no longer be Prime Minister:

Unless specified otherwise, a question asking when a public figure will resign will be settled on the date the figure announces their intention to resign rather than the date the resignation becomes effective (the Spitzer clause).

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

During September or October 2009

During November 2009

During December 2009

During January 2010

During February 2010

During March 2010

During April 2010

10%

During May 2010

50%

During June 2010

14%

He survives beyond June 2010

Question suspends in 27 weeks

Activity: H$5,390
Predictions: 15
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Mon 31st May 2010 11:59pm PST (27 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: During September or October 2009: 10%, During November 2009: 15%, During December 2009: 15%, During January 2010: 10%, During February 2010: 5%, During March 2010: 5%, During April 2010: 5%, During May 2010: 15%, During June 2010: 15%, He survives beyond June 2010: 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 12th Sep 12:56am PST by

ianochaye Level 13, Psychic (H$92,834)

Changed Description Mon 16th Nov 12:06pm PST by