Created Mon 14th Sep 4:10pm PST by

onedave [Power User]

When will Osama bin Laden release his next recording?

Settled as Before January 1, 2010

Bin Laden released a recording that's been verified as authentic on September 25.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iamUdX0_EhM7D946nt_iOgrKXBbg

Background:

Background: On September 13, an eleven-minute audio tape was released on the internet. The voice on the tape was purported to be of Osama bin Laden warning the US. At market creation, the voice's identity has not been confirmed independently.

Bin Laden typically address the US around September 11. His last apparent message was issued just before Barack Obama's speech in Cairo during June.

Additional information:
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2009/09/200991441530170646.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Videos_of_Osama_bin_Laden (not necessarily current)

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. If a recording is released, the market will be suspended until the recording is attributed to someone else (market re-opened) or attributed to bin Laden (settled). If no further news is reported, we will assume the recording is attributed to bin Laden.

Forecast history %

Before January 1, 2010

40%

Between January and April

31%

Between May and August

17%

Not before September 1, 2010

12%

Settled as Before January 1, 2010 on Fri 6th Nov 3:24am PST

Activity: H$4,585
Predictions: 21
Comments: 2

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Fri 6th Nov 3:24am PST

Initial likelihoods: Before January 1, 2010: 10%, Between January and April: 35%, Between May and August: 35%, Not before September 1, 2010: 20%

Action history:

Created Mon 14th Sep 4:10pm PST by

onedave [Power User]

Changed Description Thu 17th Sep 3:44pm PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: show details

... has not been confirmed independently~~. <~~. Bin Laden typically ... speech in Cairo during June~~. <~~. Additional information~~: <~~: <a href="http://english. ... /2009/09/200991441530170646.html</a~~> <~~> <a href="http://en.

Changed Suspend date Thu 17th Sep 3:44pm PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: was: "2009-09-30 23:59:00"

Changed Description Thu 17th Sep 3:45pm PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: show details

... has not been confirmed independently.<. Bin Laden typically ... speech in Cairo during June.<. Additional information:<: <a href="http://english. ... /2009/09/200991441530170646.html</a><> <a href="http://en.

Suspended Wed 30th Sep 1:53pm PST by

kruijs [Power User]

: Flagged by super user: almost one week ago:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iamUdX0_EhM7D946nt_iOgrKXBbg

Settled as 'Before January 1, 2010' Fri 6th Nov 3:24am PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: Bin Laden released a recording that's been verified as authentic on September 25.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iamUdX0_EhM7D946nt_iOgrKXBbg

hide

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Fri 6th Nov 3:24am PST details

Get widget!

Predictions (21)

8 weeks ago

zargonddg Level 14, Prophet (H$200,046)

predicted Before January 1, 2010 (H$500 at 42%)

8 weeks ago

zargonddg Level 14, Prophet (H$200,046)

predicted Before January 1, 2010 (H$500 at 35%)

8 weeks ago

phxsjaz Level 6, Player (H$2,342)

predicted Between January and April (H$100 at 28%)

8 weeks ago

szklaneoko Level 7, Pro (H$3,843)

predicted Before January 1, 2010 (H$100 at 32%)

8 weeks ago

galad

predicted Between January and April (H$20 at 28%)

Comments (2)

bookie Level 13, Psychic (H$64,095)

According to the Times today, this week's tape is the fourth this year (it is unclear whether this includes last year's Sept 11 related release, is in this calendar year of 2009, or if this is including tapes by Zawahiri in whichever period).

So far all the bets seem to be on an early release before the end of 2009; my feeling - tho I'm not betting on it - is that it will be a full year before we hear from OBL again.

I do wonder why this market is only open for 2 weeks!

posted 9 weeks ago

onedave [Power User]

Question flagged in order to change the suspend date.

posted 9 weeks ago