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When will "Whitey" Bulger be arrested?

Background: James "Whitey" Bulger has been on the FBI's 10 Most Wanted Fugitives list since August, 1999. An incredibly successful lifelong Boston criminal, Whitey turned 80 on September 3, 2009. Reports of Whitey sightings have come from Europe, South America, and North America over the years. Whitey's brother Bill was the former president of the Massachusetts State Senate as well as President of the University of Massachusetts. Whitey is wanted for murder, conspiracy to commit murder, racketeering, extortion, money laundering, and narcotics distribution. He went on the lam with his wife who grew tired of a fugitive's life and wanted to return home. Whitey brought her back to Boston, dropped her off at home, and picked up one of his mistresses who now accompanies him on his travels.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Whitey surrenders before January 1, 2010
10%
Whitey surrenders during 2010
10%
Whitey surrenders after 2010
10%
Whitey is captured before January 1, 2010
10%
Whitey is captured during 2010
13%
Whitey is captured after 2010
11%
Whitey dies (confirmed by new source)
15%
No news before suspend date
22%
Question suspends in 2 years

Suspend date: Sat 31st Dec 2011 3:59pm PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Whitey surrenders before January 1, 2010: 12%, Whitey surrenders during 2010: 12%, Whitey surrenders after 2010: 12%, Whitey is captured before January 1, 2010: 12%, Whitey is captured during 2010: 12%, Whitey is captured after 2010: 12%, Whitey dies (confirmed by new source): 12%, No news before suspend date: 16%

Action history:

Created Wed 16th Sep 5:38pm PST by flamingo

Suspend date: Sat 31st Dec 2011 3:59pm PST (2 years to go) details

 

Predictions (7)

4 days ago
bobyn42 predicted No news before suspend date (H$100 at 21%)
9 weeks ago
flamingo predicted Whitey dies (confirmed by new source) (H$50 at 14%)
9 weeks ago
flamingo predicted No news before suspend date (H$50 at 20%)
9 weeks ago
flamingo predicted Whitey is captured after 2010 (H$50 at 11%)
9 weeks ago
sdchargers[Power User] predicted No news before suspend date (H$333 at 17%)

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