Romanian presidential elections 2009, who will win?

Basescu (Conservatives) will try to call for a referendum to downsize Romanian Parliament to one chamber, to be held in the same time with elections, with the other two major parties (Socialists and Liberals) opposing it.
http://newsok.com/romanian-president-calls-for-referendum/article/feed/83413

The polls for presidential elections still show Basescu (Conservatives) at 30-35%, Geoana (Socialists) at 20-30%, Antonescu (Liberals) at 15-20%, Oprescu (Independent) at 10%, Vadim (Nationalists) at 5-10%. Becali (Nationalists), one of the richest businessman in Romania and the owner of Steaua Bucharest (football/soccer team) - the most popular soccer club, also announced he will candidate but he is growing unpopular with Steaua fans lately. He should be a competitor to Vadim for Nationalists votes, as they both successfully candidated for the European Parliament in May this year.
The participation of Oprescu in the race takes some votes from Socialists, where he departed from, but he managed to take votes from other parties as well when he candidated as Mayor of Bucharest as he will probably do this time as well.
Basescu and Oprescu have not formally announced there candidature but it is expected they will do this soon.
The most recent poll shows Basescu (34%), Antonescu (19%), Geoana (18%), Oprescu (12%), Becali (8%), Vadim (7%). This is the first poll that was made public that took into account Oprescu and Becali as candidates.
Other interesting findings are that 64% think the country is going into the wrong direction, a growing percentage from previous polls. Also there is a growing interest in elections (66%) and the intention to participate to vote (47%).
The data should be taken as indicative, they were ordered by Liberals. It is a poll battle also between the major parties, as it is in all other countries.
http://www.politico.ro/files/CCSB-2009-09-Sondaj-Politico.ro.pdf

Anything could happen depending on who will be the two candidates that will qualify for the second round. At this point Basescu sems to be one of them but his support diminished during the past months, and only Ion Iliescu in 1992 managed to win a second consecutive term as President of Romania.

Basescu ousted Socialists from government ahead of the presidential elections by sacking the Socialist minister of interior. All the other Socialist ministers resigned in solidarity with their coleague. The Conservative ministers will fill in the vacated offices as a sort of interim governance for the next 45 days. The Liberals promised to initiate a motion of censure against the government next week, together with the Socialists they have the majority of votes in Parliament.
http://www.euractiv.com/en/enlargement/romanian-socialists-quit-coalition-government/article-185987

Basescu announced he will candidate today.
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/18/20091003/tpl-romania-president-to-run-for-second-ee974b3.html

Conservative government falls on no-confidence vote. An independent government could be instated to organize the elections. But anything is possible since the solution is now on the hands of President Basescu to put forward.
http://euobserver.com/9/28820