Created Sun 20th Sep 2009 4:32pm PST by

When will we see the next 500 point one-day fall or rise in the BSE index?

Settled as Dec 16 to Dec 31

BSE gained 539.11 points to close at 17231.11 on December 23rd. Question is being suspended as of 5:10 AM EST as that is the listed time by Reuters.

Background:

Background: The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), like most indexes in the developing world is much more volatile than the Dow. Let's see if we can get a bit more action here than with all those boring Dow questions.
This one is simple. When will there be a 500 or greater one-day move in the BSE index? Could be soon - or not. 500 point moves are not that common even in a 16,000 point index, but it happened in August and came very close in July. Volatility seems to be decreasing, but anything can happen. Starting odds are my best estimate, based on recent history - I hope nobody thinks they are wildly off base.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

on or before September 30, 2009

Oct 1 to Oct 15

Oct 16 to Oct 31

Nov 1 to Nov 15

Nov 15 to Nov 30

Dec 1 to Dec 15

Dec 16 to Dec 31

94%

Not in 2009

Settled as Dec 16 to Dec 31 on Wed 23rd Dec 2009 6:08am PST

Activity: H$87,385
Predictions: 238
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Sun 27th Dec 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 23rd Dec 2009 6:08am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 23rd Dec 2009 2:10am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: on or before September 30, 2009: 5%, Oct 1 to Oct 15: 15%, Oct 16 to Oct 31: 15%, Nov 1 to Nov 15: 15%, Nov 15 to Nov 30: 14%, Dec 1 to Dec 15: 12%, Dec 16 to Dec 31: 12%, Not in 2009: 12%

Action history:

Created Sun 20th Sep 2009 4:32pm PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Changed Suspend date Mon 21st Dec 2009 7:20am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: was: "2009-12-31 23:59:00"

Suspended Wed 23rd Dec 2009 6:04am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: checking data

Settled as 'Dec 16 to Dec 31' Wed 23rd Dec 2009 6:08am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: BSE gained 539.11 points to close at 17231.11 on December 23rd. Question is being suspended as of 5:10 AM EST as that is the listed time by Reuters.

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