Created Fri 25th Sep 7:57am PST by

valornhonor Level 10, Genius (H$13,570)

What will be the nature of the stringent international sanctions?

Background: Well by gosh and by golly... turns out Iran IS in fact playing with more nuclear toys than we'd assumed! Who knew? No one till they admitted it...

Anyway, the US and France today said that..."Both Sarkozy and Brown said that if Iran does not come into compliance by December, it risks the imposition of stringent international sanctions. Obama, who spoke in more measured terms, did not mention sanctions specifically.

So, what do you think might happen to Iran if they don't start 'playing nice'?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Western leaders pout & fume, no sanctions imposed

66%

Economic sanctions imposed by US and/or France

Travel to/from Iran unilaterally imposed

Iranian diplomats expelled from US and/or France

Regime change in Iran occurs

Any combination of above

Any other outcome not covered above

19%

Question suspends in 1 week

Activity: H$19,467
Predictions: 51
Comments: 10

Suspend date: Tue 1st Dec 11:59pm PST (1 week to go)

Initial likelihoods: Western leaders pout & fume, no sanctions imposed: 9%, Economic sanctions imposed by US and/or France: 9%, Travel to/from Iran unilaterally imposed: 9%, Iranian diplomats expelled from US and/or France: 9%, Regime change in Iran occurs: 9%, Any combination of above: 40%, Any other outcome not covered above: 15%

Action history:

Created Fri 25th Sep 7:57am PST by

valornhonor Level 10, Genius (H$13,570)

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Suspend date: Tue 1st Dec 11:59pm PST (1 week to go) details

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Predictions (51)

4 days ago

imperiumvita Level 3, Apprentice (H$1,117)

predicted Economic sanctions imposed by US and/or France (H$20 at 2%)

5 days ago

travellingjake Level 10, Genius (H$11,110)

predicted Western leaders pout & fume, no sanctions imposed (H$100 at 57%)

2 weeks ago

tkui

predicted Western leaders pout & fume, no sanctions imposed (H$50 at 56%)

2 weeks ago

tkui

predicted Any combination of above (H$20 at 7%)

3 weeks ago

guruzilla Level 8, Super-Pro (H$7,169)

predicted Western leaders pout & fume, no sanctions imposed (H$20 at 54%)

Comments (10)

valornhonor Level 10, Genius (H$13,570)

OK cici, this one expires in a couple of months. :)

I can't help but think that there will continue to be a lot of blustering and bloviating while Iran just keeps on enriching and prepping... They keep hammering their plows into swords while we are just yackin'

posted 8 weeks ago

valornhonor Level 10, Genius (H$13,570)

g' morning C2R, I thought you'd be in Pittsburgh marching... hee hee, then again maybe you are.

posted 8 weeks ago

valornhonor Level 10, Genius (H$13,570)

Background info:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/25/AR2009092500289_pf.html

posted 8 weeks ago

cici

Thank you.

posted 8 weeks ago

chatarra Level 16, Oracle (H$646,073)

V&H,
Sarcastic voice on:
Obama's tongue lashings will certainly give President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad all he can handle in terms of punishment and he will see the error of his ways, immediately ceasing to create and deploy nuclear weapons. We have nothing to worry about.
Sarcastic voice off:

posted 8 weeks ago

excontender Level 13, Psychic (H$51,332)

Remember, the US and France can have nuclear weapons but Iran can't. Because we are the good guys and they are part of the axis of evil. Let's just forget about Iraq and those non-existent WMDs and the war that has killed over 100,000 civilians. That is not evil, that is a whoops. Any questions as to the difference?

posted 8 weeks ago

chatarra Level 16, Oracle (H$646,073)

The difference is staggering.
100,000 vs 300,000,000
I am speaking of potential here, which not based on any actual data,
but rather on the best intel that we have today.
I believe President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad when he says he would (if he could) use nuclear weapons to destroy Israel & USA.
I, for one, would prefer that doesn't happen.

posted 8 weeks ago

ghostbuster Level 12, Guru (H$36,354)

I reckon this" Mahmoud I'madinnerjacket" bloke might have something to do with the disappearance of a much loved Lego Cat.

posted 8 weeks ago

cici

@Ghostbuster - thank you, that's the best clue yet.

posted 8 weeks ago

excontender Level 13, Psychic (H$51,332)

I think chatarra has been drinking too much of the US kool-aide. Much like when the US determined from one source that Iraq has WMDs when in reality they had nothing. At least nothing worth killing 100,000+ innocent people. If Iran has nukes, good for them,you don't want to bring a knife to a gun fight. The US admin scares me more than the Iranians do. It is not like the US and Israel say nice things about Iran. You can trust Pres Ahm more than you can trust those against him.

posted 8 weeks ago