valornhonor
What will be the nature of the stringent international sanctions?
On December 16, the U.S. House passed--by a vote of 412 to 12--the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act. So, while sanctions very likely will be imposed "by December", this market suspended on December 2nd.
Background:
Anyway, the US and France today said that..."Both Sarkozy and Brown said that if Iran does not come into compliance by December, it risks the imposition of stringent international sanctions. Obama, who spoke in more measured terms, did not mention sanctions specifically.
So, what do you think might happen to Iran if they don't start 'playing nice'?
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
| Western leaders pout & fume, no sanctions imposed |
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| Economic sanctions imposed by US and/or France |
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| Travel to/from Iran unilaterally imposed |
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| Iranian diplomats expelled from US and/or France |
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| Regime change in Iran occurs |
| |||
| Any combination of above |
| |||
| Any other outcome not covered above |
|
- Activity: H$28,334 |
- Predictions: 52 |
Comments: 12
Suspend date: Tue 1st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 18th Dec 2009 3:49am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 1st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Western leaders pout & fume, no sanctions imposed: 9%, Economic sanctions imposed by US and/or France: 9%, Travel to/from Iran unilaterally imposed: 9%, Iranian diplomats expelled from US and/or France: 9%, Regime change in Iran occurs: 9%, Any combination of above: 40%, Any other outcome not covered above: 15%
Action history:
valornhonor 
sqlman![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: On December 16, the U.S. House passed--by a vote of 412 to 12--the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act. So, while sanctions very likely will be imposed "by December", this market suspended on December 2nd. 
Suspend date: Tue 1st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 18th Dec 2009 3:49am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 1st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (52)
imperiumvita
predicted Economic sanctions imposed by US and/or France (H$20 at 2%)
travellingjake
predicted Western leaders pout & fume, no sanctions imposed (H$100 at 57%)
guruzilla
predicted Western leaders pout & fume, no sanctions imposed (H$20 at 54%)Comments (12)
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I can't help but think that there will continue to be a lot of blustering and bloviating while Iran just keeps on enriching and prepping... They keep hammering their plows into swords while we are just yackin'
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/25/AR2009092500289_pf.html
Sarcastic voice on:
Obama's tongue lashings will certainly give President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad all he can handle in terms of punishment and he will see the error of his ways, immediately ceasing to create and deploy nuclear weapons. We have nothing to worry about.
Sarcastic voice off:
100,000 vs 300,000,000
I am speaking of potential here, which not based on any actual data,
but rather on the best intel that we have today.
I believe President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad when he says he would (if he could) use nuclear weapons to destroy Israel & USA.
I, for one, would prefer that doesn't happen.
Thnx!
V&H
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